TRMA Economic Panorama

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Presentation transcript:

TRMA Economic Panorama Brodie Oldham

Topics to cover Macroeconomic update Credit trends Generational view

Macroeconomic Trends © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

Gasoline Prices U.S. Average (regular, incl. all taxes)

Residential Real Estate Interest Rates, Home Sales & Prices

Originations by lending product National

Mortgage Update National Delinquency Rates

HELOC Update National Delinquency Rates Source: Experian IntelliViewSM

Auto Loan & Lease Update National

Bankcard Update National

Average VantageScore® 3.0 Bankcard inquiries and originations

Retail Credit Update National Source: Experian IntelliViewSM

Status for open utility accounts

Average balance and status of open utility accounts

Retail delinquency rates By state Best/worst five states* 2Q16 national retail 60-89 DPD Maine 0.73% Nebraska 0.73% Minnesota 0.78% Alaska 0.78% New Hampshire 0.79% … Oklahoma 1.17% Arkansas 1.26% Washington DC 1.27% Arizona 1.29% West Virginia 1.42% *Includes District of Columbia High Low Source: Experian IntelliViewSM

Personal Installment Loan Update National Delinquency Rates Source: Experian IntelliViewSM

When consumers don’t pay, what product do they not pay? 2007 2009 2015 AUTO 14% 19% BANKCARD 57% 52% 51% PERSONAL LOAN 18% 32% HELOC/HELOAN 12% 15% 23% 1ST MORTGAGE 39% 21% RETAIL 28% 26% STUDENT LOAN 48% 44%

The millennial movement Shifting credit trends and the millennial influence © 2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Confidential. 18

Younger Age 21-27 Older Age 28-34 Generations Gen Z Age 18-20 Gen Y* Younger Age 21-27 Older Age 28-34 Gen X Age 35-49 Boomer Age 50-70 Silent Age 70+ * Split into Younger and Older Gen Y

Who is Generation Z?

Average VantageScore by generation

Total Debt by generation

VantageScore at retail origination

Retail late stage delinquency rates Percent of balances 60DPD

Associated Borrower A more comprehensive approach Before After OLD NEW Partial picture Based on mortgage performance; Limited credit data Partial picture Based on mortgage performance; Limited credit data Complete picture Holistic credit view for all associated borrowers Single representation of loan FICO score Mortgage performance Loan information Property valuation (occasional) Single representation of loan FICO score Mortgage performance Loan information Property valuation (occasional) All associated borrowers VantageScore®, other credit scores Property valuation – regular updates Attributes – credit card, auto, utilization, delinquency, debt-to- income, payment 721 721 634 Borrower Borrower Associated Borrower

Thin files as of June 2016 by generation

Experian White Paper research Let there be light Experian White Paper research Applied positive utility payments to 5% random sample, then measured changes to credit profile Summary 10% more consumers became thicker Increased average risk score by 28 points Benefits © 2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Confidential. 27

Let there be light Experian White Paper Research

Consumers and data reporters can benefit from Reporting Advantages Consumers and data reporters can benefit from full file reporting by alternative trade data sources Thicken consumer profiles Positively impact credit score Increase cash flow Improve collections Enhance customer experience Assist consumers

Millennial Income Insight

Millennial Debt to Income Insight

Millennial forecasted debt growth

Understanding Millennials and Gen Z will shape our future To bring Millennials into your strategy: Maintain a long-term vision Keep up with technological expectations Message with authenticity Provide education for financial literacy Connect them to something bigger!!!