TRMA Economic Panorama Brodie Oldham
Topics to cover Macroeconomic update Credit trends Generational view
Macroeconomic Trends © 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Gasoline Prices U.S. Average (regular, incl. all taxes)
Residential Real Estate Interest Rates, Home Sales & Prices
Originations by lending product National
Mortgage Update National Delinquency Rates
HELOC Update National Delinquency Rates Source: Experian IntelliViewSM
Auto Loan & Lease Update National
Bankcard Update National
Average VantageScore® 3.0 Bankcard inquiries and originations
Retail Credit Update National Source: Experian IntelliViewSM
Status for open utility accounts
Average balance and status of open utility accounts
Retail delinquency rates By state Best/worst five states* 2Q16 national retail 60-89 DPD Maine 0.73% Nebraska 0.73% Minnesota 0.78% Alaska 0.78% New Hampshire 0.79% … Oklahoma 1.17% Arkansas 1.26% Washington DC 1.27% Arizona 1.29% West Virginia 1.42% *Includes District of Columbia High Low Source: Experian IntelliViewSM
Personal Installment Loan Update National Delinquency Rates Source: Experian IntelliViewSM
When consumers don’t pay, what product do they not pay? 2007 2009 2015 AUTO 14% 19% BANKCARD 57% 52% 51% PERSONAL LOAN 18% 32% HELOC/HELOAN 12% 15% 23% 1ST MORTGAGE 39% 21% RETAIL 28% 26% STUDENT LOAN 48% 44%
The millennial movement Shifting credit trends and the millennial influence © 2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Confidential. 18
Younger Age 21-27 Older Age 28-34 Generations Gen Z Age 18-20 Gen Y* Younger Age 21-27 Older Age 28-34 Gen X Age 35-49 Boomer Age 50-70 Silent Age 70+ * Split into Younger and Older Gen Y
Who is Generation Z?
Average VantageScore by generation
Total Debt by generation
VantageScore at retail origination
Retail late stage delinquency rates Percent of balances 60DPD
Associated Borrower A more comprehensive approach Before After OLD NEW Partial picture Based on mortgage performance; Limited credit data Partial picture Based on mortgage performance; Limited credit data Complete picture Holistic credit view for all associated borrowers Single representation of loan FICO score Mortgage performance Loan information Property valuation (occasional) Single representation of loan FICO score Mortgage performance Loan information Property valuation (occasional) All associated borrowers VantageScore®, other credit scores Property valuation – regular updates Attributes – credit card, auto, utilization, delinquency, debt-to- income, payment 721 721 634 Borrower Borrower Associated Borrower
Thin files as of June 2016 by generation
Experian White Paper research Let there be light Experian White Paper research Applied positive utility payments to 5% random sample, then measured changes to credit profile Summary 10% more consumers became thicker Increased average risk score by 28 points Benefits © 2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Confidential. 27
Let there be light Experian White Paper Research
Consumers and data reporters can benefit from Reporting Advantages Consumers and data reporters can benefit from full file reporting by alternative trade data sources Thicken consumer profiles Positively impact credit score Increase cash flow Improve collections Enhance customer experience Assist consumers
Millennial Income Insight
Millennial Debt to Income Insight
Millennial forecasted debt growth
Understanding Millennials and Gen Z will shape our future To bring Millennials into your strategy: Maintain a long-term vision Keep up with technological expectations Message with authenticity Provide education for financial literacy Connect them to something bigger!!!