7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Greece, Athens 8-10 October, 2014 Kostis Palamas building 2nd Floor Akadimias 48 Horizon scanning for social sustainability in the bioenergy value chain MBA Elena Fedorova Doctoral student Docent, Dr. Eva Pongrácz Adjunct professor Thule Institute, NorTech Oulu, Finland

Social Impacts in Bioenergy Social impacts associated with bioenergy production activities recently became more noticeable. The demand for tools that can be used in anticipatory intelligence techniques, such as modelling, tendency analyses, scanning and simulation is on the rise. Horizon scanning method helps to identify potential social issues related to the bioenergy sector, which benefits the future research and informs stakeholders, policy developers and strategic planners about emerging issues

Expectations from bioenergy

Horizon-Scanning method Scoping Screening Issue tree Gathering info Literature search Expert workshop Watching trends Trend analysis Making sense Global tendency Agree on the response Backcasting

Consumer behaviour change Issue tree Threats Issues Opportunities Labour rights Labour Training, employment Indigenous rights Human rights Empowering Land use rights Society Rural development Food security Eco- nomy Energy security Consumer behaviour change Product develop- ment Marketing communication Water access Environ- ment Diversity of energy sources

Results Policy Development and Promotion Economic Development and Growth Technology Development and Transfer Stakeholders Concern Using Horizon scanning methodology we been able to reveal that certain driving forces may strongly affect future tendencies of bioenergy industry development. The four major forces are: Socio-economic and technological reaction on this major forces, showed Global Tendencies that may potentially occur in the future for bioenergy industry development

Tendencies and Driving Forces Policy development and promotion Economic development and growth Technology development and transfer Stakeholders concern Aggressive promotion, little policy development Technology development and transfer for large facilities High in developed countries, low in developing Stakeholders not aware of social issues Conservative Always in continued development Moderate growth globally Moderate involvement Moderate Well-balanced Well-developed in connection with small-scale bio projects Moderate in developed countries, high in developing Good technology development and transfer of small plants Highly concerned and engaged Decentralized

Future Policy-Making challenges and Potential Focused case studies of bioenergy companies and institution in several countries and regions should be performed for better comprehension of the bioenergy social sustainability phenomenon. Studies similar to horizon-scanning can be effectively integrated into the social sustainability reporting process showing alarming signals and in the same time grasping the societal contexts behind the entire scanning process of identifying, evaluating. Diverse information on emerging issues may give an advantage to policy-makers, investors and stakeholder in preventing harmful issues before they arise

Thank you Contact information: Thule Institute, NorTech Oulu, FI-90014 University of Oulu, P.O.Box 7300, Finland Corresponding author, E-mail: elena.fedorova@oulu.fi