Climate Change in California: Facing Certain Uncertainties John R. Blue, CalEPA John.blue@calepa.ca.gov

Whether the Weather Known Unknowns Models – who knew climate could be so complicated? More precipitation or less? Most likely: more of it will be rain and less snow Sea level rise? Snow level Rise! Known Unknowns

Known More energy = More extremes

This time it’s Definitely Climate Change! Individual events—drought, floods, etc.—might be linked to climate change Preponderance of evidence Definitely challenging our systems

More Reading Indicators of Climate Change in California Changes in climate Impacts on physical systems (e.g., water) Impacts on biological systems Update due out fall 2017

Current and Future Impacts Extreme Weather events Reduced snow pack Prolonged fire seasons Increased tree mortality Heat waves Sea level rise Storm surge

Source: Cal-adapt.org

Source: Cal-adapt.org

What are we doing about it? Improving the science through research Reducing GHG emissions (Scoping Plan, Under 2 MOU, etc) Preparing for impacts (Safeguarding California, Sea level rise guidance, etc)

State Water Resources Control Board Resolution No. 2017-0012: Comprehensive Response to Climate Change GHG emissions (SLCP, conservation, recycled water, storm water, energy efficiency) Ecosystem Resilience (headwaters, restoration, carbon sequestration, healthy soils, fires) Respond to Impacts (vulnerability assessment, protect drinking water systems, review siting criteria, develop new and underutilized resources) Modeling and Analyses (and work with local/regional) Funding (Include climate change in funding consideration)

Regional Efforts Regional water boards Local governments

A Stitch in time saves nine Public resources are limited Avoid stranding assets Protecting Capital Investments

Power plants vulnerable to Exhibit A Power plants vulnerable to 1.4 meter sea level rise

Exhibit B Oroville Dam Spillway

The Water Energy Nexus SB 1425 Water energy nexus registry Contract July 2017 Public process Balancing Rigor with ease of use

Governor Jerry Brown, January 2017 State of the State Address We cannot fall back and give in to the climate deniers. The science is clear. The danger is real. We can do much on our own and we can join with others – other states and provinces and even countries, to stop the dangerous rise in climate pollution. And we will. Governor Jerry Brown, January 2017 State of the State Address

John Blue, Manager CalEPA Climate Change Program John.blue@calepa.ca.gov