Can Global Air Transport Resume Growth? Darren Peisley Executive Manager Commercial Planning

Global financial crisis impact on business travel since mid 2008 International First / Business Class passenger growth (IATA member airlines) Year-on-year (%Δ) May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sept-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sept-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sept-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Source: IATA Premium Traffic Monitor Jun 2009

Over time business travel returns to long run trend following demand shocks International monthly arrivals and departures: Business purpose (Seasonally Adjusted) Passengers (#) 18 year CAGR = 5% 2008-9 GFC / Swine Flu (24%) 1998 Asia Financial Crisis (20%) 2003 SARS (30%) 2001 Dot-com crash / 9-11 (18%) Jun-91 Jun-92 Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Pace of recovery in business travel largely dependent on view of future equity mkt / macroeconomic performance Note: Current drop-off more protracted than previous crises Source: ABS Overseas Arrivals and Departures Data: Jan 91 – Apr 09

PAX growth of 2x GDP appears to hold for Australian international business travel Australian international business travel PAX growth vs weighted world GDP growth1 PAX, GDP growth (%) PAX growth/GDP growth Average 2.1 (excluding negative years) Average 1.1 (including negative years) 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 05 07 03 04 06 08 Weighted GDP growth PAX growth PAX growth/GDP growth 1. Weighted International GDP per Access Economics Business Outlook, June 2009 (50% Australia, 17% US, 15% UK, 6.5% Hong Kong, 4.5% Japan, 4% Germany, 3% New Zealand)

Correlation between business travel and equity markets in US US Airline business class RPKs correlated with S&P 500 index (monthly, 2000–08) RPK R2=0.41 Sep-Dec 2001 Australia analysis also indicates that Business Travel demand correlates to equity markets with several months lag S&P 500 index Source: Consultant Analysis 4

Australian Consumer Sentiment and Business Confidence Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index. NAB business confidence index