Population Geography Chapter 2 For the 1st 200,000 years of modern man emergence from Africa-the population grew very slowly, then as the last ice age ended and the amount of habitable space expanded, population began to grow. Chapter 2

Critical Issues in Population Geography More people are alive today than at any other time in human history The world’s population increased at a faster rate during the second half of the twentieth century than every before. Virtually all population growth today occurs in less developed countries (LDCs)

Population Demographics is the study of human population distribution and migration. Key Issues of Demographics are: Food Supply Health and life expectancy Status of women Migration Food Supply-in the 1960s the fear of rapid population growth outpacing food supply was a main concern. The Green Revolution helped to ease the gap by introducing higher yield strains of rice, wheat and corn. Scientists continue to warn that an increase in population and the increased consumption of meat could lead to a global food crisis. Health-infant mortality, child mortality and over all life expectancies are concerns of demographers. Women-efforts to curb population growth have the greatest impact on women-some societies practice female infanticide or female children are malnourished or deprived of care. Where women are educated-birth rates decline. Migration-the movement of millions of people across international boundaries and internal migration to evade poverty or war or environmental disasters are also concerns of demographers. (train in Jakarta, Indonesia-one of the world’s most populous cities with 11 million people)

Earth: The Apple of Our Eye Activity Slice an apple into quarters-remove ¾=oceans Slice the quarter left (land) into 4 pieces set aside 3 = 2/3 are too rocky, wet, cold or covered by cities 1/32 left –peel the remaining piece=the topsoil surface that can grow food People are NOT distributed evenly across the Earth. Population is clustered in the mid latitude climates and relatively sparse in the dry and polar climates or the highlands.

Compare the distribution of population and the global climates

Where Is the World’s Population Distributed? Population concentrations Two-thirds of the world’s population are in four regions: East Asia South Asia Europe Southeast Asia Exceptions in South America

Population Distribution Figure 2-2

Where Is the World’s Population Distributed? Sparsely populated regions The ecumene Are that can sustain a population People generally avoid: Dry lands Wet lands Cold lands High lands

Ecumene Figure 2-4

¾ of the world’s population lives on only 5% of the land. Distribution- ¾ of the world’s population lives on only 5% of the land. Very uneven distribution was intensified in the 20th cent. as population soared. 2/3 of the pop. lives near an ocean or river. Carrying capacity- the number of people that can be supported in an area given the technology of production. Distribution-arable land is only a fraction of the Earth’s surface- Often population maps are shown by using dots to represent populations. We have always been unevenly distributed-but the uneven distribution intensified in the 20th century. Numbers are very important-every 10 years since 1790 the US govt. has done an official nation-wide census or count of the population to determine representation in Congress and the distribution of federal aid. Mayors of big cities have been upset in recent years since inner cities are notoriously undercounted in the census. Why? The US Census Bureau also gathers world population data. United Nations officials also keeps statistics as does the World Bank and the Population Reference Bureau. Growth rates, health and food availability are often estimates and are subject to error and inconsistency.

Where Is the World’s Population Distributed? Population density measure of the number of people per square mile/kilometer, etc. Types of density Arithmetic density number of objects divided by the total land area. It is the most common statistic given Physiological density the number of people per unit of arable (farmable) land Agricultural density Number of farmers per/ arable land Shows economic conditions A high Agricultural density means that the land requires more farmers than a MDC, which usually means they’re poorer and not as well off. Arithmetic Density is used when you want to compare different regions -> answers the “where” people are questions Physiological Density, or “real density”: the higher the physical density, the greater the population’s pressure on available food resources --- a HIGH number means you have extremely unsuitable land; it shows most effectively, the size of population relative to available resources. Ag density – tells you the efficiency with which the pop can grow food; is a good measure of how developed they are… if less farmers provides enough food, then you’re probably an MDC.

World Population Density

Physiologic Population Density – number of people per unit area of agriculturally productive land (takes this map into account).

Physiologic Population Density Luxor, Egypt Physiologic Population Density Luxor, Egypt. Egypt’s arable lands are along the Nile River Valley. Moving away from the river a few blocks, the land becomes sandy and wind-sculpted.

Measures of Density Table 2-1

Population Density Demo 5 chairs with 1 person= California Arithmetic density is the total number of people divided by the total land area. The highest population densities are found in Asia, Europe and Central America. Population Density Demo 5 chairs with 1 person= California 3 people= China 7 people= Japan 15 people= Taiwan 85 people= Hong Kong

Physiological density is the number of people per unit of arable land, which is land suitable for agriculture. Physiological density is a better measure than arithmetic density of the relationship between population and resources. Even physiological density can be misleading since it does not consider the productivity of the soil or the resources and expertise of the farmers.

Note that Egypt, Japan and India do not have a large number of people per square mile, but the arithmetic density is deceiving-note the difference in the physiological density. Egypt with only 2% arable land is the worst off. Japan with only 11% is also a very densely populated nation. Note the high physiological density for Switzerland-why? 98% of Egypt’s population lives on just 3% of the land. Notice the very high density for the Netherlands as well. Notice that the US and Colombia have Arithmetic densities that are very similar, but the physiological density is very different. Why?

World Population Cartogram Countries named have at least 50 million

Major Population Concentrations East Asia-1/4 of the world’s population is here-China with 1.3 billion. extends into China along the Chang and Huang rivers, but most live on the east coast. Most people are farmers, not city dwellers.

Major Population Concentrations South Asia-the 2nd major population cluster. Also extensions that follow the Ganges and Indus rivers. There are 1.5 billion in South Asia Mostly rural, farming high

Street scene in Kolkata, India

Major Population Concentrations Europe-the 3rd in population with 700 million. Europe is very urbanized with 75% to 90% living in cities. Europe’s population distribution is not closely tied to terrain Europe is not self-sustaining. Population density varies from country to country. Closely spaced houses in Amsterdam, Netherlands

Major Population Concentrations North America- East Central US and SE Canada Unlike Europe, North America has large areas of sparsely populated regions. Megalopolis Boston to Washington, D.C. which includes New York, Philadelphia and Boston. Skyscrapers of Manhattan New York

United States Population Distribution

Demographic Change is calculated by looking at the original population, adding births, subtracting deaths, adding immigrants and subtracting emigrants to equal total population. Or OP = B – D + I – E = TP

Where Has the World’s Population Increased? Natural increase rate The percentage by which a population grows in a year Crude birth rate (CBR) The number of births per 1,000 population Crude death rate (CDR) The number of deaths per 1,000 population Doubling time The number of years needed to double a population Dependency ratio- the number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people old enough to work. 80 million people added to the world pop. each year. Demographers estimate growth will stabilize in the 21st cent. Crude Birth Rate is the total number of live births in a year per 1,000 people in a society. A crude birth rate of 20 means that for every 1,000 people in a country-20 babies are born over a one-year period. Crude Death rate is the total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people. Natural increase rate is the percentage by which a country grows each year. If the CBR is 20 and the CDR is 5 the NIR is 15 per 1000 or 1.5 this excludes migration or immigration.

Crude Birth Rate

Crude Death Rates show less world wide variability than do birth rates due to widespread availability of at least minimal health care and a generally youthful population in the developing nations where death rates are frequently lower than in “old age” Europe. Crude Death Rates

Natural Increase

Food production is linear or arithmetic in growth Population is exponential or geometric in growth In 1995 the US growth rate was .7% which gives us a doubling time of 98 years. Nigeria with a growth rate of 3% will double in just 20 years. Africa’s growth rate up from 2.4% to 2.8% despite AIDS epidemic, the fastest growth rate in the world. In Africa and in the Muslim realm cultural traditions and constricted opportunities for women contribute to the rapid population growth rate. Doubling time-divide the % of increase by 70 to get the doubling time in years

World Population Growth The reason that NIR can be low and population increase goes up is because growth of people is not linear, it is exponential: 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 If you take a number, 10 and increase it by 2%, you’ll get 10.2 If you take a number, 100 and increase it by 2%, you’ll get 102 A difference of 1.8, or 88% which if you apply it to 1 billion, is much bigger 100000 gives you 2000; 1000000 gives you 20,000 Figure 2-8

World Population Growth – Rate of natural increase (does not take into account immigration and emigration).

After 2 centuries of slow growth, world population began explosive growth after WW II. UN Projections are for global growth of nearly 9 billion by 2050. The total may rise to over 11 billion by the end of the 21st century. Greatest growth in the 1990s took place in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa.

Where Has the World’s Population Increased? Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR): average number of children a woman will have during child-bearing years (~15-49) Mortality Infant mortality rate (IMR) Annual # of deaths of infants under 1 Life expectancy (at birth) Average number of years a child born at that time will live Mortality follows a pattern that is not that unusual – LDCs (Africa, many Asian countries, some SA countries) have high IMR, Low LE, and high TFR (meaning they have a LOT of babies!.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 to 2.5 children per TFR is the average number of children that would be born to each woman if during her child-bearing years, she bore children at the same rate as women of those ages actually did in a given year. It is age-adjusted, thus 2 nations with identical birth rates may have quite different fertility rates and prospects for growth. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 to 2.5 children per woman is considered “replacement level.”

Figure 2-13 Figure 2-14 Notice that places with high TFRs tend to have high IMRs and that places with low TFRs have low IMRs.

Life Expectancy : The average number of years an individual can be expected to live, given current social, economic, and medical conditions.

Population under the age of 15 - usually shown as a percentage of the total population of a country - dependency age is 0-15

What do all these stats mean? Natural Increase (NR), Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Total Fertility (TFR), Infant Mortality (IMR), and Life Expectancy (LE) ALL SHOW YOU THE SAME PATTERN OF POPULATION A LDC (poor country) will have HIGH numbers for everything except LE, which will be low (in the 30’s – 50’s) MDCs (rich countries) will have LOW numbers for everything, except LE, which will be high (72-85) Crude Death Rate (CDR) is NOT included in the above; Many MDCs have high CDRs whereas LDCs have low this will be explained when we talk about the Demographic Transition Model

Statistics practice

Human Issue: Maternal mortality

Maternal mortality ratio is the greatest health disparity between the developed and developing countries. The World Health Organization reports that 600,000 women die each year from complications of pregnancy. Social, cultural and economic barriers prevent women in the developing countries from receiving proper health care. Issues facing pregnant women in the developing world are malnutrition, anemia, lack of access to maternal health care, pregnancy at a young age when the body is not fully mature. Women are considered expendable in parts of the world where they have low status.

Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates? Demographic transition Four stages Stage 1: Low growth Agricultural revolution Stage 2: High growth Industrial Revolution Stage 3: Moderate growth Stage 4: Low growth Zero population growth (ZPG)

Demographic Transition

Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates? Population pyramids A bar graph showing a place’s age and sex composition Shape of the pyramid is determined mainly by the CBR Age distribution Dependency ratio Sex distribution Sex ratio

Population Pyramids Figure 2-19

Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates? Countries are in different stages of the demographic transition Three examples: Cape Verde = High growth Stage 2 since the 1950s Chile = Moderate growth Stage 3 since the 1960s Denmark = Low growth Stage 4 since the 1970s

Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates? Demographic transition & world population growth Most countries = stage 2 or stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Stages 2 and 3 are characterized by significant population growth No country is in stage 1 of the demographic transition It is easier to cause a drop in the CDR than in the CBR

Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern? Malthus on overpopulation An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798): Population grows geometrically while food supply grows arithmetically Criticism of Malthus includes the following: Pessimistic viewpoint Failure to consider technological innovation Marxist critique

In 1798 he published An Essay on the Principle of Population Malthus 1st to argue that the world’s population was expanding more rapidly than food production. He was the first to recognize exponential population growth. Today those who share his concerns are Neo-Malthusians Rev. Thomas Malthus 1766-1834 Thomas Malthus 1766-1834 a political economist and a clergyman he published a short book called Essay on Population in 1789 in which he argued that food production would always be outpaced by population growth. Positive checks on population growth include war, famine and disease. As a conservative clergyman he disapproved of birth control by artificial means.

Thomas Malthus Population is growing faster than Earth’s food supply Population increased geometrically; food supply increased arithmetically

Neo-Malthusians Transfer of medical technology leads to a rapid increase in population in poor countries World population is outstripping a wide variety of resources Wars and civil violence will increase because of scarcity of food and other resources

Critics of Malthus’ supporters Large populations stimulate economic growth Poverty, hunger, and other social welfare problems are a result of unjust social and economic institutions (marxism) NOT too many people

Malthus Theory and Reality Food production increased more rapidly than predicted Population didn’t quadruple Population is increasing a slower rate

Food & Population, 1950-2000 Malthus vs. Actual Trends Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

Malthus: Theory & Reality Figure 2-25

Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern? As a whole, the world might not be facing a “Crisis” Some regions do face significant issues The Natural Increase Rate can decline for two reasons: High CDR Low CBR Best way to control population is CBR

Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern? CBR has decline since 1990 in almost every country Reasons for declining birth rates Reliance on economic development 1) If women are educated, won’t raise children 2) Reduce need for ‘extra help’ Distribution of contraceptives Reducing birth rates with contraception Most “effective” and rapid method

Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern? Success of contraception varies based on region and country of either method Religion is biggest “obstacle” Political pressure can also be both positive and negative towards “Family Planning”

Family Planning Figure 2-30

Epidemiologic Transition Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern? Epidemiologic Transition

Epidemiologic Transition World Health Threats Epidemiologic Transition shows how a countries deaths from diseases will change with modernization and economic development IT FOLLOWS THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

Epidemiologic Transition Less economically developed countries (LEDC) have higher rates of infectious disease since medical care and standard of care are much lower than in MEDC. In a More economically developed country, MEDC, people die not from infectious disease, but from “degenerative” diseases. Infectious diseases are usually easy to treat, but people die from Cancer, Cardiovascular, and cerebrovascular issues

Epidemiologic Transition – Stage 1 Key Features Occurs at the same time as the Stage 1 of the DTM Shift from hunting-gathering to agriculture Infectious disease is wide-spread Why are diseases worse here than in hunter-gatherer? People are sedentary, or in one place, meaning we come into contact with infected animals/humans

Epidemiologic Transition – Stage 2 Key Features Generally occurs at the same time as Stage 2 of DTM Shift into Industrial Revolution/Industrialization Most infectious diseases are under control Non-infectious, degenerating disease on the rise USUALL, only wealthy nations.. LEDCs still suffer stage 1 Why is there a rise in non-infectious disease? Medicine can control infectious Wealthy nations can afford treatment Life expectancy rises This gives people more issues not seen before

Epidemiologic Transition – Stage 3 Key Features Stage of human-created disease Biological war, tobacco, cardiovascular, etc. DECREASE in deaths from infectious disease Disorders/issues that are a result of aging become common Life expectancy rising, births falling (stage 2/3 of DTM) Why is there a rise in non-infectious disease? Same as Stage 2 People live longer and ‘wear-down’ The DTM stage is one between stage 2-3 shift, depending on the last bullet

Epidemiologic Transition – Stage 4 Key Features Delayed degenerative disease Major cause of death is cancer and heart-problems Life expectancy is high, population growth low Why is there a rise in non-infectious disease? Same as Stage 2&3 Wealthy countries eat unhealthy food, shift from “need” to “want” in material culture Stage 4 DTM

Epidemiologic Transition – Stage 5 Key Features Reemergence of infectious/parasitic disease Disease once thought gone, comes back New disease emerges Why is there a rise in infectious disease? Medicine looses effectiveness Antibiotics are rapidly becoming ineffective among MEDC countries due to overuse Evolution Contact with new regions/areas

The Most Lethal Infectious Disease: AIDS Figure 2-33

The End. Figure 3-1 Up next: Migration