ACTEAZ Summer Conference July 2017 Brought to you by your ACTEAZ What the Research Says ACTEAZ Summer Conference July 2017 Brought to you by your ACTEAZ

Turn to your shoulder partner and share. Bell work What is the one education topic that Betsy DeVos, Randi Weingarten, Donald Trump and Al Franken all “support?” Turn to your shoulder partner and share. The answer is CTE. Of course, the President’s budget actually cuts CTE funding, but he has spoken openly about his support for CTE and praised the German approach to vocational education.

Fear, jubilation, hope, challenge, relief This presentation will take you through a variety of emotions comparable to raising a child. The fear prior to their birth that you don’t know what you have gotten yourself into. The jubilation associated with a new born baby. The hope that they’ll grow up to be well mannered, contributing members of our society. The challenges associated as they mature into teenagers. The relief when they finally become independent adults.

Let’s embrace fear Economic realities

The new (and not so new) challenge: children living in poverty

The Social mobility escalator is broken For the first time in 50 years, a majority of U.S. public school students come from low income families. The Washington Post: The Majority of U.S. Public School Students Live in Poverty. http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/majority-of-us-public-school-students-are-in-poverty/2015/01/15/df7171d0-9ce9-11e4-a7ee-526210d665b4_story.html CTE can fix the “mobility escalator”

Youth Poverty is a Huge Challenge Slide courtesy of Dan Jesse, Senior Research Associate, RMC Research Corporation. Students in poverty. This map shows where they are in terms of eligibility for free and reduced price lunch. Notice where the Native Americans are and where the poverty is most intense. Urban poverty is considered by some to be different than rural poverty (Gurley 2016). While some have sympathy for those in urban poverty, rural poverty is met with some disdain because of the belief that it is white poverty. In reality, many minority group members in rural areas are also in poverty such as AI/AN students.

Labor Force by Age Slide courtesy of Dan Jesse, Senior Research Associate, RMC Research Corporation As you can see, the participation rate for persons aged 16 to 24 has dropped substantially since 2000, while participation of those persons 65 and older has increased. Labor force participation has dropped more than any other group in the population.

Disconnected Youth-Ages 16-24: 2016 Slide courtesy of Dan Jesse, Senior Research Associate, RMC Research Corporation Source: Opportunity Nation 2016 Young People not in School and Not working. (% ages 16-24). Retrieved from http://opportunityindex.org/opportunity-index-rankings/?indicator=inclusion Add the west average 13.5% on this same chart. Source: Opportunity Nation, 2016

Untapped Resources Disconnected Youth 2016 Unemployment Slide courtesy of Dan Jesse, Senior Research Associate, RMC Research Corporation The percentage of disconnected youth in the region is slightly higher in the region than it is in the U.S. The unemployment rates for young people are about the same for those aged 16-19 but slightly lower in the region for those aged 20-24.

Economic Trends Young Adults are falling Behind: Youth Labor Force Participation has been falling, and roughly one-out-of-seven youth (16-24) are not in school or at work. Proliferation of Low Paid Jobs: Of the ten occupations that will create the most jobs in the West, nine pay less than $33,000 a year Education is Critical: Those with a high school degree or less have lost millions of jobs since 2008. Job gains have gone to those with at least some post- secondary education. Slide courtesy of Dan Jesse, Senior Research Associate, RMC Research Corporation

Are you frightened yet?

Are you frightened yet? If not, turn to your neighbor and talk about the state of American politics

Which statistics stood out for you? Turn to your shoulder partner and share Be prepared to share with the group

If you still aren’t frightened, let me help Some realities about higher education

College for all? 68% start college Only 40% complete college 53% of grads are unemployed or underemployed Student loan debt now exceeds auto loans, credit card balances and home-equity loan debt … $1.3 trillion Wyman, Nicholas. Why We Desperately Need to Bring Back Vocational Training In Schools. Forbes. http://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholaswyman/2015/09/01/why-we-desperately-need-to-bring-back-vocational-training-in-schools/ 37% of college grads are currently employed doing work for which on a high school diploma is required. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015 The six-year graduation rate for four-year colleges is 60%. The three year graduation rate for community colleges is 22%. Source: Source: “Trump’s Non-Celebrity Apprentices, Wall Street Journal. June 19, 2017

The Opportunity Jubilation?

Job Growth Through 2020 Notwithstanding failure to resolve the federal government’s budgetary challenges, the U.S. economy will grow from 140 million to 165 million jobs by 2020 There will be 55 million job openings in the economy through 2020: 24 million openings from newly created jobs and 31 million openings due to baby boomer retirements. Source: Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements Through 2020. Anthony P. Carnevale, Nicole Smith, Jeff Strohl, Georgetown University. June 2013.

Job Growth Through 2020 Job openings in healthcare, community services and STEM will grow the fastest among occupational clusters. By 2020, 65% of all jobs in the economy will require postsecondary education and training beyond high school. (Don’t forget how much of high school CTE earns dual enrollment.) By educational attainment: 35% of job openings will require at least a bachelor’s degree 30% of the job openings will require some college or an associate’s degree 36% of the job openings will not require education beyond high school Source: Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements Through 2020. Anthony P. Carnevale, Nicole Smith, Jeff Strohl, Georgetown University. June 2013. Careertech.org reports: “Those jobs that require more than a high school diploma but less than a four-year degree account for 54% of U. S. labor market, but only 44% of the country’s workers are trained at that level.” Original source: http://.national skillscoalition.org/resources/publications/file/middle-skill-fact-sheets-2014/NSC-United-States-MiddleSkillFS-2014pdf

A look at the economy 47% of all new jobs 2010-20 are middle skills jobs 48% of current labor force are middle skill jobs 86% of companies have experienced labor shortages….up from 53% in 2013 Source: Harvard Business Review Who Can Fix the Middle-Skills Gap? January 2015 Harvard Business Review, Kochan, Finegold and Osterman: Who Can Fix the Middle Skills Gap? Who Can Fix the “Middle-Skills” Gap? https://hbr.org/2012/12/who-can-fix-the-middle-skills-gap?utm_source=Middle+Skills+Gap+-+Looming+or+present+crisis%3F&utm_campaign=middle-skills_gap&utm_medium=email See also: Why Job Growth Remains Mushy in the Middle After the Recession—NBC News. August 14, 2015. Middle-skills jobs—called by some New Collar jobs. We have a new “skills-based” concept gaining momentum. Skills are being emphasized over traditional hiring filters like college degrees, work history and personal references. In June 2017 concept received strong corporate support from Microsoft which announced a grant of more than $25 million to help Skillful, a program to foster skills-oriented hiring, training and education. Effort is led by Markle foundation.

The Hope CTE to the rescue

CTE works! It is learning that works

Engagement Getting kids to school and graduating on time

On the Rise ASU Morrison Institute for Public Policy The analysis of data from Tucson Unified School District and Mesa Public Schools found: The hazard of dropping out was reduced by 70% for Mesa students and 50% for Tucson students who had taken 2 or more CTE courses Taking two or more CTE courses reduced absenteeism by 3 days for CTE students in Tucson. Compared to students who shared the same socio- economic and academic characteristics but did not take CTE Source: On The Rise report, http://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/products/rise-role-career-and-technical-education-arizonas-future This is current Arizona data based on an independent study that shows a direct correlation between CTE participation and a dramatic reduction in dropout rates in the two largest districts in the state. Please note that Tucson Unified Data included no central campus students. Mesa data does include both Central and Satellite students.

Dr. Laura Jaime research “…..that there is a statistically significant association between CTE program completion with CTE concentrators and non-CTE concentrators and the on-time rate of graduation compared to academic concentrators. On-time rates of graduation is not independent of CTE program completion for CTE concentrators and non-CTE concentrators….” Source: Unpublished dissertation. Grand Canyon University. May, 2017

2015-16 Arizona CTE Concentrator Four year graduation rate is 99% Arizona Department of Education CTE Data Snapshot, February 2016

Achievement

The data on the impact of CTE on achievement are mixed The data on the impact of CTE on achievement are mixed. Students who participate in CTE programs of study definitely outperform peers. CTE students enrolled in science or STEM-centric fields of study—including agriculture, IT and engineering technology scored at and above average on the 12th grade NAEP. In fact, the highest 12th grade NAEP scores in science were actually earned by CTE concentrators in agriculture, IT and engineering technology (http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2010/2010021.pdf In Indiana, CTE concentrators scored 10 percentage points higher on state Algebra exams when compared to all students. Source: http://www.doe.in.gov/sites/default/files/cte/2015-cte-data-analysis-report-final-6.23.2015.pdf

Transition Sending them on to worthy post secondary destinations

Transition Techniques Magazine, February 2014 “According to data from the National Center for Education Statistics, the majority of CTE students in high school continue on to postsecondary education, and those who join the workforce outright or work to supplement their incomes as they pursue further education are often in a better financial situation than high school graduates who did not pursue CTE.” Techniques Magazine, February 2014 “80% of students taking a college preparatory academic curriculum with rigorous CTE met the standard for college and career readiness, compared with 63% of students taking the same academic core without rigorous CTE.” Career and Technical education Should be the /rule, Not the Exception. Tim Hodges, Gallup Opinion. March 10, 2015

Transition 78% of CTE concentrators enroll in postsecondary education, full time, within two years of graduation About one third of all dual enrollment credits—about 600,000 in all—are eared in CTE courses Students in postsecondary CTE programs are more likely to be employed within five years than those in an academic field of study Source: Careertech.org Sources: http://cte.ed.gov/docs/NACTE Final Report2014pdf http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2013/2013001.pdf

Fordham University report on CTE--2016 Students with greater exposure to CTE are more likely to graduate from high school, enroll in a two-year college, be employed, and earn higher wages. CTE is not a path away from college: Students taking more CTE classes are just as likely to pursue a four-year degree as their peers. Students who focus their CTE coursework are more likely to graduate high school by twenty-one percentage points compared to otherwise similar students (and they see a positive impact on other outcomes as well). CTE provides the greatest boost to the kids who need it most— boys, and students from low-income families. Source: Dougherty, Shaun M. Career and Technical Education in High School: Does it Improve Student Outcomes. Thomas Fordham Institute. April 2016

Any surprises or insights? Turn to your shoulder partner and share. Be prepared to share with the group.

The Challenge Like we needed more!

High-quality CTE James Stone, NRCCTE “Not all CTE we find in today’s public schools provides the proper beginning of a career pathway—a pathway that builds on credentials business and industry recognize and value.” James Stone, NRCCTE

High-quality CTE James Stone, NRCCTE “What is needed is a re-visioning of CTE …providing students with the skills they need to move through a viable career pathway and continue their education and training to make that pathway a reality. What is needed is high-quality CTE.” James Stone, NRCCTE

Signature Features of High-Quality CTE Curriculum The curriculum is derived from industry and reflects qualifications for future employment The curriculum is delivered through projects that address authentic problems The curriculum continually enhances related mathematics, literacy and science concepts Learning is community-based…that is team-based Secondary and postsecondary programs share a common industry advisory council

Signature Features of High-Quality CTE Pedagogy CTE Teachers are highly qualified in technical and pedagogic skills Develop and sustain a community of practice among teachers Understand that academics offer essential workplace knowledge and skills. Maximize academic teaching opportunities in the occupational curriculum Recognize that teachers in occupationally oriented courses are not academic teachers, but teachers of academics in context

Signature Features of High-Quality CTE Pedagogy CTE teachers focus on core, 21st-century skills Work-based learning is developmental, progressive and progressively intensive Beyond the technical and academic content delivered through a problem-based, contextual curriculum, CTE pedagogy should incorporate opportunities for students to: Use contemporary technology Take leadership and project management roles Engage in productive struggle

How are we doing as a state? Turn to your shoulder partner and share. Be prepared to share with the group.

Suggested Reading: Doughtery, Shaun. “Career and Technical Education in High School: Does It Improve Student Outcomes.” Fordham. April 2016. Catellano, Sundell and Richardson. “Achievement Outcomes Among High School Graudates in College and Career Readiness Programs of Study.” Peabody Journal of Education. Volume 92, 2017. Issue 2 Stringfield and Stone. “The Labor Market Imperative for CTE: Changes and Challenges for the 21st Century.” Peabody Journal of Education. Volume 92, 2017. Issue 2. Stone. “Introduction to Pathways to a Productive Adulthood: The Role of CTE in the American High School.” Peabody Journal of Education. Volume 92, 2017. Issue 2. Carnevale, Smith and Strohl. Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements Through 2020. Georgetown University Public Policy Institute. 2013.

Need more information? For more CTE research visit: The CTE Research Clearinghouse at http://www.acteonline.org/clearinghouse.aspx National Association of State Directors of CTE Consortium www.careertech.org The National Research Center for CTE at www.nrccte.org Association for Career and Technical Education www.acteonline.org

The Relief It’s over!

The end It’s over. Now, that didn’t hurt too much, did it?