Project Management: Tools & Techniques LESSON 4

The problem The city of XYZ has several bus companies. During the last years the frequency of bus accidents has gone up significantly. This has caused much delay and inconvenience for the passengers. There have also been several serious accidents in which passengers have been killed. The newspapers have taken a particular interest in the problem, and some of the companies that have had more than their share of bad publicity have registered a reduction in the number of passengers. Much of the problem is technical: the buses are old, and are in bad condition because of a persistent lack of spare parts. But the human factor is also important: many accidents have been caused by high-speed driving on bad roads. Assignment: Suppose that you are acting as the manager of one of the interested bus companies. Your task is to implement the Logical Framework Approach (LFA) in order to decide upon a project that will address above problem.

Participation Analysis On the basis of the available information, the first task is to develop a comprehensive picture of the interest groups, the individuals and institutions involved. Present these groups in the cells of the matrix shown in the following slide.

INSTITUTIONS INTEREST GROUPS OTHERS  

Hints to perform Participation Analysis: From the given problem information, think about the following involved stakeholders: Bus company Passengers General public Mass media Drivers Bus owners Categorize the above groups / stakeholders into three classes: Institutions Interest Groups Others

Solution INSTITUTIONS INTEREST GROUPS OTHERS Bus company Passengers  General public  Mass media  Drivers    Owners

Make a more detailed analysis of the most important groups Select as most important groups: Passengers, and Bus Companies Make a more detailed analysis of these groups, i.e., identify for each group the following: Problems: The main problems affecting or facing the group Interests: The main needs and interests as seen from the group's point of view Potentials: The strengths and weaknesses of the group Linkages: Main conflicts of interests, patterns of cooperation or dependency with other groups Present your findings in the cells of the matrix shown in the following slide.

  BUS COMPANIES PASSENGERS PROBLEMS INTERESTS POTENTIALS LINKAGES

Hints to identify problems, interests, potentials and linkages: Consider the following findings: 1. Economic losses caused by busses out of service 2. Sufferings for victims and their families 3. Economically viable operations 4. Able to directly influence the problem 5. Can choose other bus companies if necessary 6. Delays caused by accidents 7. Reduced number of passengers 8. Dependent upon the passenger’s cooperation 9. Safe, expedient and cheap transport 10. Boycott the only means to influence the problem 11. Economic losses caused by payments to victims Categorize the above findings into four classes: Problems Interests Potentials Linkages and identify the group (Bus Companies or Passengers) each finding is more relevant / valid

Solution PROBLEMS INTERESTS POTENTIALS LINKAGES BUS COMPANIES   BUS COMPANIES PASSENGERS PROBLEMS  Economic losses caused by busses out of service Delays caused by accidents Economic losses caused by payments to victims Sufferings for victims and their families Reduced number of passengers INTERESTS Economically viable operations Safe, expedient and cheap transport POTENTIALS Able to directly influence the problem Boycott the only means to influence the problem LINKAGES Dependent upon the passenger’s cooperation Can choose other bus companies if necessary Solution

Problem Analysis Suppose that you decided to give priority to passengers’ interests Set as “focal problem” for passengers the following: frequent bus accidents Identify the causes / effects of the focal problem Construct the “problem tree” You can complete the problem tree presented in the following slide Hints to perform problem analysis: The substantial and direct causes of the focal problem are placed parallel underneath it The substantial and direct effects of the focal problem are placed parallel on the line above it Causes and effects are further developed along the same principle to form the problem tree

Complete the Problem Tree Effect Cause

More hints for Problem Analysis: Consider the following factors : Drivers are not careful enough People arrive too late Insufficient maintenance Economic losses for passengers Bad condition of vehicles Loss of confidence in the bus company Bad condition of roads Passengers are hurt or killed Vehicles are too old Categorize them into cause and effect factors of the focal problem (“frequent bus accidents”) Place each factor accordingly in the problem tree

Solution Effect Cause

Objectives Analysis Suppose that you have decided to add "training of drivers" as a means to make drivers more responsible Construct the objectives tree by rewording problems in the problem tree into objectives (positive / desirable conditions)

Hints to perform Objectives Analysis The problem tree is transformed into a tree of objectives (future solutions of the problems) Working from the top downwards, all problems are reworded, making them into objectives (positive statements) The focal problem is similarly transformed into an objective Difficulties in rewording may be solved by clarifying the original problem statement If the statements make no sense after being reworded from problems, write a replacement objective, or leave the problem unchanged Check that meeting objectives at one level are sufficient to achieve the objective at the next level Problems: "If cause A, then effect B" Objectives: "Means X in order to achieve end Y“ Caution: Every cause-effect relationship does not automatically become a means-end relationship. This depends on the rewording Working from the bottom upwards, ensure that cause-effect relationships have become means-ends relationships Finally, draw lines to indicate the means-ends relationships in the objectives tree.

How the Objectives Tree is developed Reformulate all elements in the problem tree into positive (desirable) conditions Review the resulting means-ends relationships to assure validity and completeness of the objective tree If necessary: Revise statements Delete objectives which appear unrealistic or unnecessary Add new objectives where necessary Draw connecting lines to indicate the means-ends relationships.

Reformulate “Problems” into “Objectives” Economic losses for passengers Loss of confidence in the bus company Passengers are hurt or killed People arrive too late Frequent bus accidents (focal problem) Drivers are not careful enough Bad condition of vehicles Bad condition of roads Vehicles are too old Insufficient Maintenance Complete the objectives (cells of the 2nd column) in the table: Add “Drivers are better trained” as a means to make drivers more responsible

Problems Objectives Economic losses for passengers Passengers economic losses are reduced Loss of confidence in the bus company Passenger’s confidence is restored Passengers are hurt or killed Few passengers hurt or killed People arrive too late Passengers arrive on time Frequent bus accidents (focal problem) Frequency of accidents is considerably reduced (focal objective) Drivers are not careful enough Drivers drive carefully and responsibly Bad condition of vehicles Vehicles are kept in good condition Bad condition of roads Road conditions are improved Vehicles are too old Old vehicles are replaced Insufficient Maintenance Vehicles are maintained regularly Solution “Drivers are better trained” is the cause factor for “Drivers drive carefully and responsibly”

Complete the Objectives Tree End Means

Solution End Means

Alternatives Analysis Three steps: Eliminate the objectives which cannot be achieved Identify two possible alternative options (means-end branches in the objectives tree) which could become possible projects These means-end branches constitute the alternative options Number and label thee alternative options Evaluate the two alternative options (and their combination) with respect to the following viability criteria: Cost Chance for success Cost/Benefit Time horizon Social risk

Alternatives Analysis: 1st Step Determine and eliminate the objectives which cannot be achieved

Alternatives Analysis – Objectives which cannot be achieved (Solution) Improved road conditions are entirely outside the reach of any of the bus companies

Alternatives Analysis: 2nd Step Identify two possible alternative options (means-end branches in the objectives tree) which could become possible projects These means-end branches constitute the alternative options Number and label thee alternative options Show these options in the objectives tree

Re-design the Objectives Tree OPTION 1 OPTION 2

“Improved road conditions” should be eliminated Solution OPTION 1: Better drivers OPTION 2: Better buses “Improved road conditions” should be eliminated OPTION 1 OPTION 2

Alternatives Analysis: 3rd Step Evaluate the two alternative options (and their combination) with respect to the following viability criteria: Cost Chance for success Cost/Benefit Time horizon Social risk Select one of the options (option 1, option 2 or their combination) as the appropriate project strategy for the bus company

(Option 1 & Option 2 combined) Complete the Comparison Table Use linguistic terms (Low/High, Short/Long etc.) to evaluate the options Justify your evaluations Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 (Option 1 & Option 2 combined) Cost Chance for success Cost/Benefit Time horizon Social risk

(Option 1 & Option 2 combined) Solution Option 1 Better drivers Option 2 Better buses Option 3 (Option 1 & Option 2 combined) Cost Low High Chance for success Cost/Benefit Time horizon Short Long Social risk

Justification for the evaluations (shown in the comparison matrix) and final project decision Option 1 (better drivers) is limited to a training programme. The chance of success is low if the buses are still in bad condition Option 2 (better buses) is more expensive, and there is no guarantee that the result will be positive unless the drivers also improve A third option would be to combine option 1 and option 2. It would be the most expensive alternative, but has a higher probability of success The result is that one of the options are chosen as the project strategy, in this case option 3

Compete the Project Matrix (PM)

Complete the Project Matrix (PM): 1st Step (1/2) Identify main project elements for the selected project strategy Use the objectives tree to identify the main project elements Start at the top of the objectives tree and work downwards If necessary, reformulate the wording from the objectives tree to make them more accurate

Complete the Project Matrix (PM): 1st Step (2/2) Transfer the project elements into the first vertical column of the project matrix (Goal, Purpose, Outputs, Activities) The goal describes the anticipated long term objective towards which the project will contribute The purpose describes the intended effects of the project (project purpose) for the direct beneficiaries as a precisely stated future condition. There should be only one immediate objective The outputs are expressed as objectives which the project management must achieve and sustain within the life of the project. Their combined impact should be sufficient to achieve the immediate objective Activities are expressed as processes. Avoid detailing activities Main inputs for the activities can be expressed in terms of funds, personnel, goods etc.

Complete “Goal”, “Purpose”, “Outputs”, “Activities” and “Inputs” cells in the PM matrix

Solution

Complete the Project Matrix (PM): 2nd Step Identify assumptions Assumptions describe conditions that must exist if the project is to succeed but which are outside the direct control of the project management Start from the bottom of the objectives tree and work upwards Examine whether the inputs are sufficient to undertake the anticipated activities or whether additional events must also take place outside the project (assumptions) Some assumptions can be derived from elements in the objectives tree which were eliminated

Complete “Assumptions” cells in the PM matrix

Remember that "improved roads“ was eliminated from the objectives tree Solution Remember that "improved roads“ was eliminated from the objectives tree

Complete the Project Matrix (PM): 3rd Step Determine indicators The indicators specify how to verify the attainment of objectives and outputs. Some indicators can be derived from the objectives tree (an indicator, for example, can specify exactly how much the frequency of bus accidents should be reduced and by which date)

Complete “Indicators” cells in the PM matrix

Solution (1/2)

Solution (2/2) More detailed indicators can be identified as part of the project monitoring system. Taking output no. 1 “Drivers Trained”, as example, two indicators can be specified: Indicator 1: From the existing 120 drivers at least 60% are trained in year 1 and 40% in year 2; of the trained drivers all register a qualitative improvement in driving abilities, style and adherence to traffic rules, verified according to criteria set and agreed upon with the Traffic Department of the city and surveyed sporadically through checks and road controls. Indicator 2: Complaints against trained bus drivers concerning driving ability, style and observation of traffic rules is less than 20% of present levels (30 complaints / day) by middle of year 2. Means of verification: Traffic Control Reports, Traffic Dept. Independent Bus Traffic Surveys Bus company Complaint Book Traffic Rules Violation and Fines Register, city Police Dept.

The assignment presented in the previous slides is based on an example described in the following report: The Logical Framework Approach (LFA) – Handbook for objectives-oriented planning 4th edition, the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD), 1999