ENERGY SOURCES POSSESSION AS POTENTIAL TOOL FOR POLICY OF SUPREMACY OR SECURITY ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE CLUB OF ROME, BUCURESTI, SEPTEMBER 30 - OCTOBER 2, 2012 Wawrzyniec Konarski Polish Association for the Club of Rome

Energy Sources Possession as Potential Tool … Any effective socio-political activity, including prognoses formulating may be perceived from both: narrow and wide perspectives. In the first option purely political goals are significant, whereas in the second an amalgamation of economic, cultural or geographical concerns come into play.

Energy Sources Possession as Potential Tool … The socio-political and economic history of Europe confirms the lack of its internal solidarity as a long lasting phenomenon. The preferences of individual states once with powerful aspirations have always been more significant. The latter created rather unconstructive instead of constructive influence on the states future cooperation on both scales: bilateral and global one.

Energy Sources Possession as Potential Tool … With some changes it still continues in contemporary times and complicates the prognoses contents delineating. Thus the irrational factors influence on the decision-making processes has to be taken into consideration in the époque of globalization either. At the moment one can speculate whether the energy sources possessors may be tempted to utilize them furthermore as a supremacy tool in their future, strictly political plans or not.

Energy Sources Possession as Potential Tool … The energy policy today depends strongly on the natural gas possession. It seems to be a crucial factor for current as well as for planned (quasi)political activities either. The similar role was allocated to steel production on the turn of XIX and XX centuries, or oil fields possession during WW II. In each of this cases we can find a transparent temptation for geopolitical expansionism, and not excluding a military one.

Energy Sources Possession as Potential Tool … Following the same trace the natural gas based energy policy is a sort of tool which may also endorse both: economic and perhaps political supremacy temptations. Furthermore it may also complicate rationally oriented prognoses (e.g. the USA attitude towards Kioto Protocol and/or Russias Gazprom monopolistic position). Thus regional (but also continental) solidarity is alas still an empty formula.

Energy Sources Possession as Potential Tool … A democratic deficit matters significantly in todays politics – e.g. in the European Union - but it is the solidarity deficit which matters most. In official statements Germanys pro-Nord Stream policy with Russia as a partner was oriented on economic gains only, but it is short sighted in terms of mutual confidence within the states of region, not to mention the ecological risks. The other verification of this solidarity deficit came from Norway, a country which is not interested in delivering its gas for preferential prices to these countries, which feel uncomfortable with one supplier only, namely Russia.

Energy Sources Possession as Potential Tool … In order to prepare and shape the new energy policy on European and worlds scale it seems to be necessary to initiate three steps: 1. To begin with the drawing up the protocol of divergences in all the countries visions of energy policy now and in predictable future; 2. To find a common ground for such a policy implementation; 3. To perceive solidarity as a real, and not only declared, value for such a policy for the common benefit of all its participants, instead of economic selfishness. History shows that interstate conflicts, including devastating wars have always been the result of the unbearable burden of egoism, if to rephrase the Milan Kunderas famous book title.

Energy Sources Possession as Potential Tool … The generally understood energy policy – now and soon - should serve as a tool for the creation of socio-political stability and not for the making of a new version of political supremacy. It is perhaps a sign of naivety, but as history shows only internal solidarity on a global scale can help in reaching the long- lasting stability. After all we are homo sapiens and not homo insipiens, I presume, who live in globalized space, where no one is a sole winner, but many can lose a lot.

Energy Sources Possession as Potential Tool … There is a concrete challenge for the Club of Rome in nearest future as far as the energy policy game is concerned. The Club should serve as not only a source of analyses and warnings provider for national and global leaders. What seems to be particularly important is to endorse its position as the intellectually effective adviser in the worlds decision making processes. The question of how to reach it remains open …

THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION!