HURRICANE IRMA SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2017 Before, During, and After Making Landfall on West Coast of Florida lecture by Walter Hays Uploading date: September 12, 2017 More lectures at Disasters Supercourse - http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/disasters/BADisasterSupercourse.htm PPT original - http://www.pitt.edu/~super7/55011-56001/55711.ppt Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) WIND FIELD [CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5+ (155 mph or greater)] DEBRIS STORM SURGE/FLOODS HEAVY PRECIPITATION/FLOODS LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) COSTAL EROSION

WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE CAUSES OF DAMAGE WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS HURRICANES STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN “DISASTER LABORATORIES” SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES

GOAL: WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE WINDSTORM HAZARDS PEOPLE & BLDGS. VULNERABILITY LOCATION WINDSTORM RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK RISK GOAL: WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

HIGH POTENTIAL LOSS EXPOSURES IN A SEVERE WINDSTORM Entire communities; People, property, infra-structure, business enterprise, government centers, crops, wildlife, and natural resources.

IRMA: FORECAST ON AUGUST 30

CAT 2 IRMA: SEPT. 2: DESTI-NATION STILL UNCERTAIN

Irma Left at Least 27 Deaths and Vast Destruction in the Island Nations of the Caribbean

WILL HURRICANE IRMA CAUSE ANOTHER DISASTER IN THE USA. SEPT WILL HURRICANE IRMA CAUSE ANOTHER DISASTER IN THE USA? SEPT. 9: YES, WORSE--- A CATASTROPHE 5.6 MILLION EVACUATING IN CARS—A RECORD—WITH GAS SHORTAGES, NO HOTEL ROOMS AND CONGESTED HIGHWAYS

CAT 4 IRMA: SEPT. 9: DESTINATION FLORIDA

HURRICANE IRMA’S LANDFALLS IN FLORIDA 1) Florida Keys—Sept 9 2) Florida—Sept 10

SEPT 9-10: 3 M (10 FT) STORM SURGES ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH OF FLORIDA’s COASTS DEVASTATION ALREADY THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN WITH CAT 4 HURRICANE JOSE STILL COMING ON SIMILAR TRACK

HIGH WINDS, STORM SURGE, FLOODING—ALL KILLERS AND LOSS MAKERS--- ARE EXPECTED in the Keys and Both Coasts of Florida

SEPT 10: WIND, STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL

SEPT 10: STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL

HISTORIC JACKSONVILLE FLOODING

ST JOHNS RIVER NEAR JACKSONVILLE

SEPT 10-11: PROJECTED PATH

GOVERNOR SCOTT TELLS THE 6 MILLION WHO EVACUATED---”DON’T THINK ABOUT RETURNING, YET; IT’S TOO DANGEROUS.”

65 PERCENT OF POWER OUT THROUGHOUT FLORIDA---MAY TAKE MONTHS TO RECOVER

SCHOOLS LIKELY TO BE CLOSED FOR WEEKS TO MONTHS

ECONOMIC LOSSES IN CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM WIND, STORM SURGE, AND FLOODING AND LOSS OF TOURISM ARE EXPECTED TO REACH TENS OF BILLIONS IN THE ISLAND NATIONS AND FLORIDA.

PRELIMINARY THINKING: IRMA LIKELY TO BE ONE OF THE TOP 5 FIVE MOST COSTLY DISASTRS IN USA HISTORY.”