Prof. M. Cammett POLS 1270 April 3, 2012

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Presentation transcript:

Prof. M. Cammett POLS 1270 April 3, 2012 Development and Underdevelopment in the Middle East: Paths and Trajectories Prof. M. Cammett POLS 1270 April 3, 2012

The Glorious Ottoman Past

Reversal of Fortune in the Middle East. Annual Growth in GDP/cap Reversal of Fortune in the Middle East? Annual Growth in GDP/cap. by Region

Understanding development and underdevelopment in the MENA What is “development”? How do we/should we measure it?

Alternative Measures of Development

Pct. Population Living on $2/Day

Income v. Human Development as Measures of Development Literacy Rates

The MENA Big State (Government Spending/GDP)

MENA Underdevelopment: Industrialization in Comparative Perspective Manufactured Exports/Total Merchandise Exports

From opulence . . .

. . . to poverty and chaos.

Typology of Political Economies in the MENA Oil Non-Oil Monarchies Bahrain Iran (pre-1979) Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Jordan Morocco Republics Algeria Iran (2005-) Iraq (pre-2003) Egypt Syria Tunisia (1956-2011) Quasi/Democracies Iran (1979-2005) Iraq (2003-) Libya (2011-) Lebanon Tunisia (2011-) Turkey

Measuring “Development” Standard measures: Income, growth, industrialization GNI/Cap. in MENA

Post-Independence Development Trajectories: The Single-Party Republics General strategies: Import-substitution industrialization (ISI) Welfare regimes Populist rhetoric and policies  Citizen expectations & obligations Examples: Egypt (1957 -1974) Algeria (1962 -1989) Syria (1963 -1990s) Iraq (1963 -1990s) Tunisia (1962 -1969)

Control of Corruption (2008) No ISI, dependence on oil earnings Anti-populism, private sector development But big public sectors, SOEs, welfare states Labor force characteristics & challenges of “indigenization” Minimal political liberties, but relative respect for rule of law Oil Monarchies Control of Corruption (2008) Source: Kaufman, et al. (2009)

Non-Oil Monarchies Relative political freedoms Liberal economic rhetoric/policies, private sector development Less generous welfare regimes

Economic Crisis . . . Total Debt as a Percentage of GDP

. . . and the Mixed Record of Reform GDP Growth (Annual %)