Fukushima city Kouri city mSv/hr mSv/hr → mSv/year

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Presentation transcript:

Fukushima city Kouri city mSv/hr mSv/hr → mSv/year 9.5 50 3.8 20 9.5 50 3.8 20 1.9 10 1.0 5 0.5 2.5 0.2 1 0.1 0.5 I was asked to be an advisor of Kouri town, which is adjacent to Fukushima city. 2011 Nov 5th

Dig 3m in depth, and pile up the dug soil. Lateral view of ground Pile Up Dig Dig 3m in depth, and pile up the dug soil. Put nylon sheet. Sheet Peel superficial soil. Schools tried to reduce radiation levels on the grounds by following ways. This is lateral view of ground. Dig 3m in depth, and pile up the dug soil. Put nylon sheet. Peel superficial soil, of which depth was determined by measuring radiation levels. Put them into dug hole. Covered by sheet and put piled soil on the contaminated superficial soil covered with nylon sheet. Put them into dug hole. Radiation levels reduced to 10%. Till June, schools and parks has been changed into safe places for children.

I advised we should visualize radiation. Kouri town bought one whole body counter and two machine to measure radiation levels in food and water. I advised we should visualize radiation. Kouri town bought 1.One whole body counter 2.Two machine to measure radiation levels in food and water

2011 Sep - Oct 2012 Sep - Oct 50 100 150 200 250 Frequency 1 2 3 4 50 50 100 150 200 250 Frequency 1 2 3 4 2011 Sep - Oct 50 100 150 200 Frequency 2 4 6 External exposure (mSv/year) Children under 16, infants and pregnant women were asked to put a small equipment to measure external radiation exposure. Upper panel is a histogram of September and October in 2011. The data was adjusted to one year by 6 times. Median was 1mSv/year, which means half are no problem. 99% are less than 2.4mSv/year that equals to mean radiation exposure of the world from natural environment per year. So, basically, children and pregnant women are OK. Lower panel is Sep to Oct in 2012 and adjusted to one year. Mean and median of the distribution was remarkably improved by shifting to the left. 2012 Sep - Oct

We do not have preventive way for radiation inducible-cancers. During summer vacation 2011, children in Fukushima spent their time in west side of Japan. NGO associating Chernobyl measured thyroid function of these children. Ten of 130 were out of normal range. Mother whose child was out of normal commented to media’s interview “When I was told the results by a doctor, my brain was totally white”. We do not have preventive way for radiation inducible-cancers. Some raise fear and anxiety in general people through internet, which may be phenomenon of modern time. During summer vacation, children in Fukushima spent their time in west side of Japan. NGO associating Chernobyl measured thyroid function of these children. Ten of 130 were out of normal range. Mother whose child was out of normal commented to media’s interview “When I was told the results by a doctor, my brain was totally white”. We do not have preventive way for radiation inducible-cancers. 5

Why risk perception is much higher than real risk? Radiation is invisible: Smoking is avoidable because it can be seen. Radiation is not controllable: Food poisoning by pathogenic E Coli was avoidable by heating meat. Children’s issue: Dividing cells may be more sensitive to radiation induced toxicity, theoretically. Long lasting: Not 1 year’s problem, but will continue decades. Uncertainty: We have only a few evidence of low dose radio-contamination in history. Why risk perception is much higher than real risk? Radiation is invisible: Smoking is avoidable because it can be seen. Radiation is not controllable: Food poisoning by pathogenic E Coli was avoidable by heating meat. Children’s issue: Dividing cells may be more sensitive to radiation induced toxicity. Long lasting: Not 1 year’s problem, but will continue decades. Uncertainty: We have only a few evidence of low dose radio-contamination. Reliability: National government are doing little and unreliable. Cancer: People may have devastative image to cancer. Human made disaster: People feel sorrow lost families and friends by the earthquake, but never complain. However, people complain invisible radiation before health hazard. Why? I believe people look that this accident is human made but not nature made.

supplementation

Stochastic model

Non threshold model and uncertainty Can be + 10% Can be + 4% Sure with certain confidence interval Evidence based prediction +4.1% Can be + 1% +0.4% Can be less than 1% Cancer mortality Theory based prediction Not sure +0.04% Can be + 0% = No risk Can be + 0% = No risk 10mSv 100mSv 1000mSv