Bill VanDyke, Petroleum Manager Will Nebesky, Commercial Analyst

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Presentation transcript:

Bill VanDyke, Petroleum Manager Will Nebesky, Commercial Analyst Presentation to the International Association of Energy Economics -Anchorage Chapter Bill VanDyke, Petroleum Manager Tim Ryherd, Geologist Will Nebesky, Commercial Analyst Alaska D.N.R. - Division of Oil and Gas November 27, 2001 The Alaska D.N.R. - Division of Oil and Gas periodically reviews the petroleum geology of Cook Inlet. A petroleum system approach is used in this discussion, including source, migration, reservoir, trap and seal are covered. This report also includes a compilation of Cook Inlet exploration and development activity. This summary communicates the high priority agenda items that the Division has recently dealt with and will be addressing in the near future. Alaska Department of Natural Resources http://www.dog.dnr.state.ak.us/oil/index.htm

Cook Inlet Activity 2 Map Legend tjr 11/2001 Unit Boundary Oil Field / Accumulation Gas Field / Accumulation Unit Boundary Map Legend Platform Production Facility Proposed / Active Wells Pipelines Map Area Selected Wells 2 tjr 11/2001

Cook Inlet Gas Production and Reserves 3

Gas Hypothetically Available for Local Utility Use 4

Cook Inlet Activity 5 Map Legend tjr 11/2001 Unit Boundary Oil Field / Accumulation Gas Field / Accumulation Unit Boundary Map Legend Platform Production Facility Proposed / Active Wells Pipelines Map Area Selected Wells 5 tjr 11/2001

Cook Inlet Exploration Summary – 2001 Ninilchik Unit and Falls Creek Unit – Marathon (Gas) G.O. #1 well completed as gas well, G.O. #2 well planned South Ninilchik Unit and Deep Ck. Unit – Unocal (Gas) Possible State/CIRI joint administration, up to 3 wells planned for 2001-02 Pretty Ck./Lewis Riv./Ivan Riv. – Unocal (Gas) Re-entered 1 well each in Lewis Riv. and Ivan Riv., drilling P.C.U. #4, new well, in Pretty Ck. field Swanson River Unit Gas Satellites Project – Unocal (Gas) Proposal to develop two gas fields north and east of Swanson River oil field on Federal and Native owned lands Redoubt Unit – Forest Oil (Oil discovered in 1968 by Pan Am) R.U. #1, #2, & #3 wells completed by Forest, R.U. #4 is planned Field is bigger than originally thought, up to 193 MMBO recoverable reserves Forest has other prospects at Sabre, Corsair, and Valkyrie Pioneer Unit – Evergreen Exploration (Coalbed gas, no proven reserves) Formerly operated by Ocean Energy, ownership and operations transferred to Evergreen in mid-2001. 2 production wells & 1 injection well drilled in 1999; committed to drill 6 more wells, at least 1 in each of 2 new areas Cosmopolitan Unit – Phillips (Oil discovered in 1967 by Penzoil) Hansen #1 well permitted to drill to bottom location on State lease Nikolai Ck. Unit – Aurora Gas (Gas) Production started in Oct., NCU #3 well produces at rate of 2 MMCF/day North Fork Unit – Gas Pro (Gas) Project apparently on hold Trading Bay Unit/McArthur River Field – Unocal (Oil) T.B.U. #K-13 came on production at 7,100 BOPD, highest rate of any well in Cook Inlet 6 tjr 11/2001

Cook Inlet Areawide 2001 Sale Results Currently Leased Acreage Cook Inlet Areawide 2001 Leases 7 mep 01/2001

Timeline of Cook Inlet Exploration Exploration activity in Cook Inlet took off in the late 50s and peaked in the mid 60s. Since then industry attention has shifted to the North Slope and diminished in Cook Inlet. Note: Important discoveries are noted. Peak of exploration drilling in 1965. Prudhoe Bay was discovered in 1968. 8 tjr 11/2001

Cook Inlet Gas Exploration History 267 oil & gas exploration wells drilled in CI through 2000 Of these, 24 were GAS exploration wells Of largest 10 CI gas fields (based on current gas reserves), only Cannery Loop (smallest of the 10) was found by exploring FOR gas Much of Cook Inlet basin area is underexplored 9 tjr 01/2001

Outlook and Predictions For Cook Inlet Areawide sales make entire area available for exploration and development Independents will become an increasing influence More competition for prospects and leases New thinking and inventive technology and business climate Independents will drive exploration and development costs lower This may mean less money for the State of Alaska, as well as service companies Oil continues to be an elusive target in Cook Inlet Conventional gas exploration will extend beyond the core developed areas Coalbed gas will continue as an emerging exploration target Viability of this exploration play is yet to be determined 10 tjr 11/2001

Cook Inlet Historic Gas Consumption by Major Disposition Category 1971 - 2000 Alaska D.N.R. 11 wen 11/2001

Royalty Value for Natural Gas Utility and Industry Dispositions in Cook Inlet Versus Henry Hub Spot Price Aug 1997 - Aug 2001 Alaska D.N.R. Utility = Electric and Space Heat. Industrial = Urea, LNG, and Field Operations. Henry Hub located at U.S. Gulf of Mexico. 12 wen 11/2001

Royalty Value for Electricity and Space Heat Dispositions in Cook Inlet Versus Henry Hub Spot Price Aug 1997 - Aug 2001 Alaska D.N.R. Electric = CEA and MLP. Space Heat = Enstar, Aurora, and Other LDC Direct Sales. DOR PV for CEA, MLP, and ENSTAR. 13 wen 11/2001

Royalty Values for Urea Plant, LNG and Field Operations Gas Dispositions in Cook Inlet Versus Henry Hub Spot Price Jan 1989 - Aug 2001 Alaska D.N.R. 14 Note: Royalty Values are Netted Back to the Wellhead. wen 11/2001

Destination and Royalty Values for Ammonia-Urea Plant Dispositions in Cook Inlet Jan 1991 - Aug 2001 Alaska D.N.R. 15 wen 11/2001

Destination and Royalty Values for LNG Gas Dispositions in Cook Inlet Jan 1991 - Aug 2001 Alaska D.N.R. 16 wen 11/2001

DOR Prevailing Value and Avg Royalty NB Value in Cook Inlet Versus Henry Hub Spot Price and US Avg WH Price Jan 1992 - Aug 2001 Alaska D.N.R. Alaska D.N.R. 17 wen 11/2001

Cook Inlet Supply and Demand Typical Production Scenario With 1 TCF Reserve Appreciation Alaska D.N.R. 18 wen 11/2001

Cook Inlet Supply and Demand: LNG Export License Renewal Denied (Hypothetical Scenario) With 1 TCF Reserve Appreciation Alaska D.N.R. 19 wen 11/2001

Comparison of Gas Supply and Demand in Alaska Alaska D.N.R. 20 wen 11/2001