Achievements in Wildland Fire Risk Mapping Acquis en Cartographie du Risque d’Incendies de Forêt Achievements in Wildland Fire Risk Mapping EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

Wildland Fire Risk Mapping Deliverables Wildland fire danger and hazards: a state of the art Common methods for mapping the wildland fire danger Towards an Euro-Mediterranean Wildland Fire Danger Rating System Objectives Analyse the structure of existing wildland fire danger indexes Design an Euro-Mediterranean Fire Danger Rating System EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

Wildland Fire Danger and Hazards: a state of the art (D-08-02, D-08-07) Wildland fire structure and terminology on fire risk Fire risk issues Temporal and spatial issues Fire management and risk assessment Risk variables Vegetation Climatic and meteorological Topography Anthropogenic variables EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

Common methods for mapping the wildland fire danger (D-08-05) Methods for wildland fire risk mapping Dynamic fire risk indices Static-structural danger indices Operationally applied methods for fire danger estimation in Mediterranean countries Short-term Long-term Inventory of existing databases Cartographic interfaces for the dissemination of fire danger indices EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

Probability of ignition (human factors) Scheme of the Euro-Mediterranean Wildland Fire Risk Index (EM-WFRI) (D-08-03, D-08-06) Satellite index Fuel moisture Ignition Danger Index Meteo Index Probability of ignition (human factors) Human ignition Fuel properties Propagation Danger Index Wind flows EM - WFRI Topography Population exposition Vulnerability Index Environmental value Economic value Potential soil erosion EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

Fuel Moisture (Satellite Information) FMCg = -57.103 + 284.808 x NDVI – 0.089 x ST + 136.75 x FDg FMCc = 70.195 + 53.520 x NDVI – 1.435 x ST + 122.087 x FDc Grasslands Ávila-Segovia y = 0.9525x - 3.8232 R 2 = 0.9053 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Observed Estimated (a) (b) Live fuel moisture content map (August, 10th; 2004) Observed and estimated FMC values for grasslands (a) and C. ladanifer (b). EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

Fuel moisture (Meteorological Index) Correlation between meteorological variables and environmental and topographic variables: elevation ( r -0.72/-0.97), aspect (r -0.34/-0.53), slope (r -0.44/-0.70), sea distance (-0.40/-0.93) Multiple regression: r 0.97 for minimum and maximum temperature of January and July Spatial interpolation of meteorological index value: Interpolation of the meteorological parameters of the index (temperature, wind…) Interpolation of the meteorological index EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

Spatial interpolation of meteorological risk index a) high resolution -50 x 50 m- b) low resolution -1 x 1 km- * Meteorological risk index from interpolated variables: c) high resolution -50 x 50 m- (b) EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

Probability of Ignition (Human Factors) Landuse types Urban density Road network Structural forest fire ignition risk EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

Probability of Ignition (Human Factors: occurrence) EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

Scheme of the Euro-Mediterranean Wildland Fire Risk Index (EM-WFRI) Satellite index Fuel moisture Ignition Danger Index Meteo Index Probability of ignition (human factors) Human ignition Fuel properties Propagation Danger Index Wind flows EM - WFRI Topography Population exposition Vulnerability Index Environmental value Economic value Potential soil erosion EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

Propagation Danger Index Rate of Spread (RS) Propagation Danger Index (PDI) Flame Length (FL) EU SPREAD Project, 2004 EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

Vulnerability Index: Environmental value Landscape Value: Singularity Diversity Connectivity ...... CORINE LAND COVER Environmental Value Ecological Value: Natural protected areas Habitat of importance ..... NATURA 2000 NETWORK EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

Vulnerability Index: Potential soil erosion Slope (%) Pre-fire vegetation density Fire severity Soil erodibility 0-5 1 Medium Variable Shallow soil with high stone content 5-10 2 Low Intense 3 Intermediate depth and stoniness 10-20 Bare Deep soil with few stones 20-30 4 >30 5 Coefficients ascribed to the four soil erosion factors used to estimate erosion risk Erosion Index = Slope * Vegetation density * Fire severity * Soil erodibility Low ≤ 5; Intermediate 6 – 15; High 16-26; Very high ≥ 27 EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

Vulnerability Index: Potential soil erosion Slope Vegetation density Fire severity Soil erodibility EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006

Conclusions * The components and structure of a risk index have been identified. Several examples have been shown to demonstrate their efficiency. The remaining challenge is to acquire better data necessary for risk estimation at the European scale. * A GIS can be easily used for the generation and integration of the variables, and a map web server could be used for the distribution of the data and presentation of the risk. * Two scales must be considered independently: The European scale provides deciders with a global vision of the risk. The local scale provides an operational basis upon which local foresters and firemen can make practical decisions. EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006