Electing a US President, 2016 Hillary Clinton Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party

“The most important election in a generation…” Party establishments weakening Trump and Sanders Economic Consensus challenged Trade National Security consensus challenged Alliances Forward defense Nuclear deterrence

Realignment? Republican Party shattering Democratic Party moving left Demographic shifts

Electoral College System Popular Vote Electoral Vote Each state has a designated # of votes # of Representatives in US House of Reps # of Senators 538 total votes 270 to win Why this system?

Electoral Vote Totals for 2016

Election Day Americans vote Winner of each state gets the state’s electoral vote (except Maine and Nebraska) Electoral votes of each state are added together Whichever candidate gets over 270 wins

2012 Results (332-206) Obama Victory

Complications No winner? House of Representatives chooses Election of 1800 Election of 1824 Popular Vote winner loses Electoral Vote Election of 1876 Election of 1888 Election of 2000

Creating a Coalition among Different Demographic groups Victory? Creating a Coalition among Different Demographic groups

Democratic Era 1932-1980s Democratic New Deal Coalition Republican Minority South African-Americans Union members Urban North Immigrants Farmers Socialist parties voters Small town Midwest Wealthy American

Breakup of New Deal Coalition 1960s-1980s IN African-Americans Union members Urban North Immigrant Farmers OUT Democratic South

Realignment Reagan Coalition (1980s to 1990s) Midwest small towns Wealthiest Americans Hawks on foreign policy Blue Collar in North and Midwest (union and non-union) White Southerners Evangelicals Yuppies

1990s to the Present: Competition Republicans Democrats Southern states African-Americans Plains states Urban Voters Wealthy Voters Women Christian Conservatives College Towns Competition Suburban Voters Latino Voters

Battle in the Republican Party: 1990s-Present Reagan Coalition Shatters Traditional Conservative Small “c” conservative Smaller government Some government role Cut taxes Economic focus Might be pro-choice Movement Conservative Government is the problem Huge tax cuts Social conservative Anti-Abortion Gun rights Evolution/Creationism Anti-Gay rights Anti-same-sex marriage Prayer in school

2016 Coalitions? Trump Coalition Obama/Clinton Coalition Women New England West Coast College-Educated African-Americans Latino-American Asian-Americans Non-College-Educated White Men White Southerners Blue Collar in North and Midwest Union and non-union Anti-free trade Anti-intervention/nation-building Evangelicals Conservative nationalists (white/Christian) Rural/anti-elite Tea Party

The Meaning of Trump Anti-Establishment Anti-Globalization Three Billion New Capitalists – competition Decline of Traditional US Manufacturing US Education problems Polarization Republican Party Crisis Demagoguery out of control Conspiracy Theories Social media and bullying White Nationalism?

Trump Enters Politics: From A Joke to the Nominee The “Birthers” The Facts

Red States 2016 (180 EV)

Blue States 2016 (215 EV)

Swing States (143 EV)

2016 Clinton Victory: Normal Trends 288-250

2016 Trump Victory 292-247

2016 Clinton Victory: If Trump Alienates Everyone 385-153

Complications Jill Stein Hillary Clinton Green Democratic Gary Johnson Donald Trump Libertarian Republican