Belgian political situation CERAN, the 16th of November 2016 Pierre Verjans University of Liège

Agenda Introduction Body Summary Q&A session Linguistic situation Religious behaviour Economic disparity Political forces Summary Q&A session

Introduction Purpose: Show that Belgium is both Ordinary and Extraordinary at the same time A microcosm of Europe

Linguistic situation From VII th century..: stable! North: germanic language, dialects South: latin dialects East: german-speaking community (1919…) Brussels: “frenchilasation” since 1830…

Gysseling Maurits, Herbillon Jules Gysseling Maurits, Herbillon Jules. « La genèse de la frontière linguistique dans le Nord de la Gaule ». in: Revue du Nord, tome 44, n°173, Janvier-mars 1962. pp. 5-37; http://www.persee.fr/doc/rnord_0035-2624_1962_num_44_173_2410

Linguistic situation North: South: germanic romantism XIXth: language rooted in peasant and catholic life; mistrust of « franskilioenen » snobbery South: Attraction of an international & prestigious language Even in the social struggles

Religious behaviour North: 1798: peasants’war against France 1839: flemish petition: demanding the recognition of the language (administration [1878], laws [1899] university [1930],… )… constitution? with the help of lower ranking members of the clergy (against language of Voltaire…)

Religious behaviour South: Liberal party (1846) anticlerical but not antireligious Industrial revolution: less religious working class: Parti ouvrier belge (1885)

Economic disaprity Industrial revolution From 1780… in the South Migration of flemish peasants to Wallonia Post-industrial revolution (1973 - …) GDP/capita Flanders higher than Wallonia Coal mining stopped Steel industry faced competition (ECSC 1951) SME’s in Flanders, VEV 1927: minimalism… Since 1981: costs of post-industrial transition!

Political forces Demographic evolution Federal institutions Classic electoral behaviour Latest news

Demographic evolution

Electoral behaviour

Federal system Communities: culture (demand of Flemish movment) Regions: economy (demand of Walloon movment)

Federal units

Minorities in Belgium 2014 Flemish voters in Brussels: 53.379 voix = 9,14% of the voters 53.379/4.779.144 = 1,11% of voters in Flanders 17/89= 19,1% of the seats in PRB-C French-speaking party voters in Flanders: UF: 34.741/4.779.144 = 0,73% voters in Flanders French-speaking parties in Brussel/ FWB: 409.048/2.456.435 = 17% of the voters in FWB

From christian domination to new-flemish alliance Last news From christian domination to new-flemish alliance

HPB 11-12 mai 2015

HPB 11-12 mai 2015

Federal elections 2014 Majorité: 76/150 N-VA 33 +6 PS 23 -3 MR 20 +2 CD&V   18 +1 OpenVld   14 +1 sp.a   13 0 cdH   9 0 Groen   6 +1 Ecolo   6 -2 Vlaams B  3 -9 PTB-GO !   2 - FDF   2 -   Parti Popu  1 0   Gouvernement: 33+20+18+14= 85

Current gouvernment No institutional reform Neo-liberal reforms: Less social security (65->67, index) More openess foreign investors Less means for the State « Law and order »

Summary Double frustration Common sense of international environment Majority non recognized and then instrumentalised Minority now despised by the majority Common sense of international environment Compromises from the necessity Hate for violence

Thank you for your attention Now, I’m sure you have some questions, remarks, objections, interjections…