MJAC Air Quality Update 15th December 2016 Birmingham Founded 1928 Air Quality Update 15th December 2016 Birmingham Chris.poole@worcsregservices.gov.uk T. 01562 738069

Air Quality Headlines Chancellor pledges funding for ‘clean’ transport European Commission takes action against UK over emissions scandal High Court rules against Defra over air quality plan Four major cities move to ban diesel vehicles by 2025 Lots going on in AQ world. A few select headlines from many could have chosen: Chancellor pledges £390m for ULEV technology in autumn statement, EU taken action against several countries over VW scandal, AQAP quashed in High Court – more next, Paris, Athens, Madrid & Mexico City plan to ban diesel – London considering, EU study says UK is second in europe for mortality from NO2, sales of ULEV vehicles on the up – more on that later UK among highest death rate from NO2 pollution in EU, study claims DfT data points to increase in low emission vehicles

UK AQAP Defra published plan and submitted to EC 17 Dec 2015 Challenged by environmental law firm ClientEarth High Court ruled against Defra on 02 Nov 2016 and deemed its emissions modelling ‘too optimistic’ Gov’t were criticised for basing revised AQAP around modelling on NO2 emissions which did not take into account ‘emerging’ data for real-world testing of Euro 6 vehicles. A Cabinet briefing document dated October 2015 shows that Gov’t was aware of “emerging findings from real-world testing by independent experts, Emission Analytics… suggest emissions for Euro 6 are significantly higher than previously thought”.

Real World Driving Emissions Real-world driving emissions of NOx, primary NO2 & CO2 Helen ApSimon, R O’Driscoll, Tim Oxley, Imperial College Nick Molden Emissions Analytics With modelling input from Massimo Vieno (CEH) & David Carruthers and CERC Helen Apsimon presentation at EPUK conference last month follows on from judges comments in High Court. The message from this presentation is not only many Eurocode 5 and 6 diesels exceeding limits but also primary NO2 emissions are far more significant than previously considered

Real World Driving Emissions – Imperial College & Emissions Analytics Real-world measurements of emissions from diesel cars using PEMS (Portable Emissions Measurement System) have shown not only high emissions of NOx but also high proportions of Primary NO2 PEMS data produced by Emissions Analytics (www.emissionsanalytics.com )

Real World Driving Emissions – Imperial College & Emissions Analytics Illustration for 39 Euro 6 diesel cars: some extremely high values of NOx (up to DR of 22) Primary NO2 can also be very high, several times NOx standard on its own! NB 2 cars meet standard & worst few cases greatly affect average emissions. Note red line in Euro 6 standard for NOx emissions, only 4 of these 39 diesels meet requirements. NB In many cases Primary NO2 emissions exceed EC6 requirements

Real World Driving Emissions – Imperial College & Emissions Analytics According to Helen Apsimons team there is some improvements between Euro Code 5 and 6 but very wide spread of exceedances of standards

Real World Driving Emissions – Imperial College & Emissions Analytics Compared to diesel, petrol vehicles are generally performing well

Real World Driving Emissions – Imperial College & Emissions Analytics Comparison with COPERT 4.11 COPERT is EU model of emissions data – its what the Emissions Factor Toolkit, Defra’s AQAP and the recent CAZ Framework predictions are based on. Key here - NB the difference in modelled primary NO2 fraction of NOx emissions predicted from EuroCode 6 by COPERT compared with the study’s PEMS data But difference would be less if worst Euro 6 cars excluded.

Real World Driving Emissions – Imperial College & Emissions Analytics NOx and primary NO2 emissions -2015 Nox/No2 emissons kiloTonnes/year – diesel cars and taxis and LGVs – most significant sources. NB the 2025 year in diagram is an error

Real World Driving Emissions – Imperial College & Emissions Analytics Trends in primary NO2 emissions from diesel cars Diesel increased proportion of fleet Reductions in NOx/ km Change in proportion as NO2 Causes: Diesel oxidation catalyst produce more NO2 used passively regenerate Diesel Particulate Filters & enhance performance of SCR (DfT April 2016 Vehicle Emissions Testing Programme report) Key point – COPERT model shows that NO2 as proportion of NOx emissions increased up to Euro code 4 standard vehicles as increase in diesel vehicles in fleet, then reduces with more stringent Eurocode 5 and 6 standards. But PEMS data shows actual % is significantly higher. Potential cause are to do with vehicle technology – catalysts oxidise pollutants in emissions to less harmful compounds but also oxides NOx to No2 increases primary No2. Some benefits if used in conjuction with DPFs which become blocked with soot, increased NO2 helps to passively regenerate filters

Real World Driving Emissions – Imperial College & Emissions Analytics Why and where are primary NO2 emissions important? Emission regulations all apply to NOx; no regulation of primary NO2 When Euro standards introduced assumed 5 to 10% NOx emitted directly as NO2 as for other combustion sources Did not anticipate that this might depend on control technologies and that primary NO2 would change as proportion to NOx emissions 1996-2014 concentrations NOx averaged over 35 road-side locations in London have decreased by 2.4+1.5%.Corresponding change in NO2 of 0.4+0.4%. (Carslaw et al. Have vehicle emissions of primary NO2 peaked? Faraday Discussions 2016 189) So upshot is primary NO2, not previously considered as the focus of emissions improvement, is becoming higher % of roadside NOx emissions from diesel vehicles as is not decreasing at same rate as Nox due to vehicle technology

Real World Driving Emissions – Imperial College & Emissions Analytics What do models tell us? A) Illustration from EMEP 4UK provided by Massimo Vieno at CEH: Sensitivity study to changing % primary NO2 from 5 to 20% for annual average concentrations in year 2015-> effect restricted to urban areas. Primary NO2 increasing from 5 to 20 % of annual average concentrated in urban areas and our AQMAs

Real World Driving Emissions – Imperial College & Emissions Analytics www.emissionsanalytics.com PEMS data on NOx and CO2 emissions publicly available on web-site for wide range of Euro5 and Euro 6 cars. Independent assessment of what different manufacturers achieve: guidance for public on purchasing decisions Information on individual 2011 to 2015 diesel car performance on Emission Analytics website – spread the word for public to make informed choices

Diesel vs. Ultra Low Emission Vehicles Gov’t desire in AQAP for fleet turnover to ULEV by 2050, and 3 to 7% by 2020. DfT latest vehicle licensing statistics report for 2015: 3.21 million vehicles registered in Great Britain in 2015 (37.1 million in total) ULEVs represented 0.9% (29, 963) of all new vehicle registrations, compared with 0.5% (15,833) in 2014 - up 89% and approximately 1% of total vehicle fleet The report also showed that the proportion of diesel vehicles has continued to grow. By December 2015 there were 11.4 million diesel cars, accounting for 37.8% of the total, up from only 7.4% in 1994. Bringing this back to AQAP – 2 main desires of the now quashed plan: change of fleet to ULEV and CAZs for 6 cities. Latest DfT data indicates long to go in key ‘battleground’ of converting fleet from diesel dependence to ULEV uptake

AQAP Future Defra has announced it will consult on a revised Air Quality Plan by 24 April 2017 and publish a final plan by 31 July 2017. What will change? Diesel scrappage scheme? EAC & Defra have called for previously but rejected by Treasury. Change in Leadership, change in direction? In High Court case the Judge added if Defra had built its 2020 emissions forecast on ‘higher, more realistic, assumptions’, then the number of Clean Air Zones it would have needed to set up would have increased ‘substantially’. Widening of mandatory CAZ network? Amendments to CAZ framework? Diesel scrappage scheme previously championed by Environmental Audit Committee and turned down by Treasury. Will new Govt leadership have different view? In my opinion seems likely that CAZs will have more emphasis in revised plan. But considering framework consultation just ended last week, started before High Court Case occurred and utilises out of date COPERT data, does the framework need to be revisited already?!

Clean Air Zones This is the current framework as consulted on – NB category D including diesel cars is seen as a voluntary option for the 6 cities. Given Helen Apsimon and her teams findings it seems likely for CAZs to be effective in many towns and cities that they will need to incorporate an element prohibiting diesel cars