SDG Monitoring Challenges in the Arab Region: A Focused Examination of Mortality Data & Measurement Romesh Silva, Ph.D. Demographic and Social Statistics Section, Statistics Division Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia United Nations SDG Indicator Preparedness Workshop Amman, Jordan May 8, 2016

Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness Outline From MDGs to SDGs The Case of SDG Target 3.2: Under-5 Mortality Rate Challenges of Measurement of SDG Measurement Implications for National Statistical Systems Need for data integration of multiple sources Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness 1. From MDGs to SDGs Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

Progress towards Health-related MDGs Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

Expansive Nature of SDGs  Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

Broader Range of Health-related SDGs Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

2. The Case of SDG Target 3.2: Under-5 Mortality Rate Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) Systems are recognized as the preferred source of official mortality statistics United Nations, 2014 Design Principles of CRVS Universal Continuous Permanent Compulsory Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

Mortality & Vital Registration Paradox Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

Heavy Reliance on Surveys & Censuses in Many Countries Qatar: Under-5 Mortality Rate Sudan: Under-5 Mortality Rate Main approaches: Direct Measurement Civil Registration Data: Direct Calculation Household Survey: Full Birth History Indirect Measurement Census or Household Survey: Summary Birth History Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

Qatar: Under-5 Mortality Rate Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

Sudan: Under-5 Mortality Rate Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

Current Status of CRVS Systems Source: Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office, World Health Organization, 2013. Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness Heavy reliance on non-CRVS sources by UN when estimating summary mortality measures Heavy reliance on survey-based data for mortality estimation in Saudia, Iraq and Jordan In states with dysfunctional registration systems Sudan, Libya, Lebanon, and Morocco) reliance on summary mortality statistics derived from survey/census-based child mortality estimates In Tunisia, Egypt, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Syria – use of vital registration. But some uncertainty about the quality and completeness of the underlying death registration system data, as discussed in yesterday’s sessions on the WHO Rapid/Comprehensive Assessments results. heavy reliance on surveys and modeled estimates for WPP mortality estimates ===> ultimately need to remain focused on strengthening statistical systems           shifting the foundation of stat systems away from ad-hoc surveys or international surveys (DHS/MICS) and towards pop.census and registration systems Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

SDGs: Additional Measurement Challenge of Within Country Differentials “Leave no one behind” Between Country and within country measurement The overall health SDG calls for healthy lives for all across all ages, positioning equity as a core , cross-cutting theme Target 17.8, which calls for efforts to build capacity to enable data disaggregation by a number of stratifying factors, including income, gender, age, race, ethnicity, etc. Disaggregated data enable policy- makers to identify vulnerable populations and direct resources accordingly.  Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

A Tiered + Flexible SDG Indicator Framework The framework of indicators was adopted as the initial framework, and the Inter-Agency Expert Group on SDG indicators (IAEG-SDGs) was asked to continue its work on refining the indicators: Establish a Tier system according to availability and the level of specification of indicators Develop methodologies for indicators in Tier III Work on definitions and standards to be agreed at the international level with a view to guaranteeing international comparability.   The 47th Session of the UN Statistical Commission recognised that the framework of indicators is intended for global reporting and some indicators may not be applicable in the national contexts; and Indicators for regional national and sub-national levels shall be developed at the regional and national levels. Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

3. Challenges of Measurement of SDG Measurement Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness Follow-up & Review when Civil Registration is Incomplete and/or Deficient Design Implications for National Statistics System: Timing of Household Surveys (and Censuses) Inclusion of Full Birth History or Summary Birth History Modules And new survey modules (for more detailed age ranges, etc.) Data integration of multiple data sources Leveraging of rich demographic/SES covariate info Use of statistical techniques for subnational analysis (e.g. small area estimation) Long-term improvement of CRVS System Short/Medium term usage of (Subnational) CR data (e.g. urban areas) Romesh Silva - 2016 Paris21/AITRIS Workshop on SDG Indicator Readiness

Thank you Romesh Silva, Ph.D Demographic and Social Statistics Section, Statistics Division Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia United Nations Email: silva22@un.org | Tel: +961-1-978-727 | Fax: +961-1-981-510 Skype: romeshmarksilva | Twitter: @Romesh_Silva