Overview Regional economic conditions have improved noticeably in recent months, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Job growth in upstate NY has.

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Labor Market Trends in the Region Jaison R. Abel, Research Officer Investing in America’s Workforce: Perspectives from Western New York Buffalo, NY; March 27, 2017 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

Overview Regional economic conditions have improved noticeably in recent months, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Job growth in upstate NY has been slow and steady through the expansion, with Buffalo faring better than many of its upstate peers. As job growth has picked up, especially in the middle of the wage distribution, businesses in the region report widespread difficultly finding workers with all types of skills. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 1

Recent Economic Performance

Current Economic Conditions FRBNY Regional Business Surveys Diffusion Index 40 Empire State Manufacturing Survey 20 Mar Business Leaders Survey (Service Sector) -20 Mar 21 2017 S 5.46 9.34 P 0.3 1.57 -40 Shading indicates NBER recession -60 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 3

Regional Employment Trends Total Employment Through Jan 2017, Seasonally Adjusted Index (December 2007 = 100) 112 Dashed Line Indicates U.S. Employment Trough (February 2010) +1.9% 12-Month Annual Percent Change 108 +1.7% 104 +1.1% Downstate NY Buffalo +0.9% 100 Mar 21 2017 Upstate Metros 96 United States Shading indicates NBER recession 92 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com. 4

Buffalo Job Growth by Sector 12-Month Change Through January 2017 2,500 Education & Healthcare 2,000 Leisure & Hospitality 1,993 1,860 1,500 Gov’t Financial Activities 1,000 1,131 1,094 Construction 500 545 Professional & Business Mar 21 2017 - Total Nonfarm Change Over Same Period = 6,117 205 -88 -112 Manufacturing -263 Trade -405 Information -500 Transportation -1,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com. 5

Upstate Manufacturing Trends Indexes of Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Jan1990=100) 125 100 75 Albany Buffalo Jan 50 Syracuse Mar 21 2017 Rochester Binghamton 25 Shading indicates NBER recessions 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com. 6

The Return of Middle-Wage Jobs

Job Categories Higher Wage Middle Wage Lower Wage Based on 2015 Median Wages, United States $120,000 Higher Wage Middle Wage Lower Wage 20% 50% 30% Management Computer & Math Legal Engineering Business & Finance Healthcare Practitioners Sciences Education Arts & Entertainment Installation & Repair Construction Social Services Protective Services Administrative Support Production Transportation Healthcare Support Sales Building Maintenance Personal Care Farming Food Preparation $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). 8

Job Gains and Losses in the United States Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands Thousands 3,000 2,184 2,261 2,104 1,500 1,470 1,577 1,205 Middle Wage Lower Wage 278 Higher Wage Higher Wage Middle Wage Lower Wage Higher Wage Middle Wage Lower Wage -985 -1,500 -3,000 -4,500 -6,000 -6,550 2007 to 2010 2010 to 2013 2013 to 2015 -7,500 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). 9

Middle-Wage Jobs Returning Growth in traditional blue collar jobs: Construction Production Transportation Installation & Repair Education jobs growing again as local government fiscal pressures have subsided. Rebound in Administrative Support jobs. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 10

Job Gains and Losses in Downstate NY Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands Thousands 200 179 150 157 144 130 100 102 50 Higher Wage Middle Wage 30 18 21 Lower Wage Higher Wage Middle Wage Lower Wage Higher Wage Middle Wage Lower Wage -50 -100 112 2007 to 2010 2010 to 2013 2013 to 2015 -150 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). 11

Job Gains and Losses in Upstate NY Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands Thousands 30 2007 to 2010 22 15 19 15 12 10 Middle Wage Middle Wage 6 5 Higher Wage Lower Wage Higher Wage Lower Wage Higher Wage Middle Wage Lower Wage -15 -25 -30 -45 -60 2010 to 2013 2013 to 2015 -72 -75 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). 12

Job Gains and Losses in Buffalo NY Net Change in Total Employment, Thousands Thousands 10 8 7 7 5 5 Middle Wage Lower Wage Middle Wage 3 1 -1 Higher Wage Higher Wage Lower Wage Higher Wage Middle Wage Lower Wage -5 -6 Mar 21 2017 -10 -15 -16 2007 to 2010 2010 to 2013 2013 to 2015 -20 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). 13

Share of Jobs by Wage Group, 2007 and 2015 A Shrinking Middle Share of Jobs by Wage Group, 2007 and 2015 100% Higher Wage 20% 20% 18% 22% 22% 20% 23% 22% 80% 60% Middle Wage 52% 54% 50% 49% 50% 47% 54% 50% 40% Mar 21 2017 Lower Wage 20% 28% 29% 28% 30% 30% 27% 29% 28% 0% 2007 2015 2007 2015 2007 2015 2007 2015 United States Downstate NY Upstate NY Buffalo NY Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Employment Statistics). 14

Difficulty Finding Skilled Workers FRBNY Supplemental Survey Report, April 2015 Percentage Reporting Difficulty 66 Advanced Computer Empire State Manufacturing Survey 45 Business Leaders Survey 50 Basic Math 29 32 Basic English 21 35 Basic Computer May 21 2015 18 51 Interpersonal 38 57 Punctuality/ Reliability 34 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 15

Labor Market Trends in the Region Jaison R. Abel, Research Officer Investing in America’s Workforce: Perspectives from Western New York Buffalo, NY; March 27, 2017 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.