Joseph Mroszczyk Travel in Increasingly Turbulent Times: What's Ahead for Destinations Around the Globe Joseph Mroszczyk Manager, Intelligence Products & Services Global Rescue LLC 177 Milk St, Suite 700 Boston, MA 02109 Office: 617-210-8102 Cell: 401-241-6488 Fax: 617-507-1050 Email: jmroszczyk@globalrescue.com www.globalrescue.com

PURPOSE OF PRESENTATION Provide an overview of travel-related risk – what it is, how to assess it, and how we perceive it – and provide updates on turbulent popular destinations.

Joseph Mroszczyk Manager – Intelligence Products and Services, Global Rescue Oversees intelligence collection, analysis, and production for Global Rescue. Over 9 years of experience in the security and intelligence fields. Intelligence Officer in the US Navy Reserve – Office of Naval Intelligence Formerly with the Department of Homeland Security, US Army Human Terrain System in Iraq, a private cyber intelligence firm, and BAE Systems Research on terrorism has been published in peer-reviewed, academic journals Education Ph.D. candidate – Northeastern University MA, International Relations and Religion – Boston University BA, Political Science and History – Boston University

WHAT IS RISK? Factors to consider: Destination: Country, region, city/town, district, street. Traveler: Risk tolerance, intent/objective, anxiety. Types of risk: Terrorism, environmental, civil unrest, political, health, transportation, crime, etc. What do we look for? Predictability, fidelity of gov’t/security forces, targeting of foreigners, etc.

PERCEPTIONS OF RISK How do we perceive risks? Emotional vs. rational calculations Probability and impact Terrorism vs. crimes/accidents/medical issues/natural disasters Being your own worst enemy

US CITIZEN DEATHS OVERSEAS Oct. 2002 – Jun. 2016 Source: US State Department

COLLECTING RISK INFORMATION Where can you get information? Government websites: US State Department, British FCO, Australian Smart Traveller, etc. Embassies: Regional security officers, consular officers, etc. Travel blogs/websites: TripAdvisor, WikiTravel, etc. Locals: Hotel staff, trusted partners, etc.

DESTINATION ASSESSMENTS

MYSTERY LOCATION #1 Where am I? High murder rate. Over 750 murders in this city in 2016 alone, up 50% from 2015. Frequent shootings. Approximately 12 people shot every day, over 4,300 shooting victims for the year. Terrorism hub? At least 20 major terror cases with links to the city in last 15 years. Image: http://www.cdc.gov/zika/geo/active-countries.html

MYSTERY LOCATION #2 Where am I? Murder capital of the country. More murders per capita in this city than any other city in the country. City ranks among the most murderous in the world. Ranked as 15th most murderous city in the world after locations in Mexico, El Salvador, Venezuela, Honduras, Colombia, and Brazil. Terrorism concerns. Multiple people arrested in recent years for allegedly supporting ISIS, making terrorist threats, etc. Image: http://www.cdc.gov/zika/geo/active-countries.html

JORDAN The Situation Is Jordan safe? We rate Jordan as a MODERATE security risk country. Karak attack – Dec. 2016. Islamic State claims responsibility. Elevated threat of terrorism remains. Jordan remains key US- ally in campaign against Islamic State. Image: http://www.cdc.gov/zika/geo/active-countries.html

EGYPT The Situation Is Egypt safe? We rate Egypt as a HIGH security risk country. Notable attacks in 2016. Targets include Coptic Christians, tourists, police. Elevated threat of terrorism remains. Image: http://www.cdc.gov/zika/geo/active-countries.html

INDONESIA The Situation Is Indonesia safe? We rate Indonesia as a MODERATE risk country. Jemaah Islamiyah  ISIS Returning fighters and growing extremist support. Potential for future attacks? Image: http://www.cdc.gov/zika/geo/active-countries.html

TURKEY The Situation Is Turkey safe? We rate Turkey as a HIGH security risk country. 2016: attacks and coup attempt. Multiple attacks and a failed coup have made Turkey an unpredictable security environment. More attacks are likely in 2017. Attacks by Islamic State and Kurdish militants are likely, including in Istanbul and Ankara, and may target tourists. Image: http://www.cdc.gov/zika/geo/active-countries.html

ETHIOPIA The Situation Is Ethiopia safe? We rate Ethiopia as a MODERATE security risk country. 2016: widespread unrest and state of emergency. Threat of unrest remains. Root ethnic/political issues unresolved. Will government extend state of emergency? Image: http://www.cdc.gov/zika/geo/active-countries.html

WESTERN EUROPE The Situation Is Europe safe? We rate all West European countries as LOW security risk. Multiple attacks in 2016. Belgium, Germany, France, etc. Department of State travel warning. What does it mean? More attacks are likely in 2017. Soft targets in Europe remain attractive to Islamic State and its sympathizers. Image: http://www.cdc.gov/zika/geo/active-countries.html

CONCLUSIONS Risk is quantifiable; risk perception is emotional/subjective Terrorism is here to stay for foreseeable future Risk exists everywhere in many forms – can never get risk to 0, shouldn’t expect that when traveling Image: huffingtonpost.com/entry/faqs-about-zika-virus_us_56ae80c9e4b077d4fe8e8f6c