Anticipating the Future of Distance Learning The 21st Century James L. Morrison Professor of Educational Leadership UNC-Chapel Hill TODAY The 21st Century

Teaching and Learning in the 21st Century The changing environment Technology and learning Where are we? What are the issues?

Students can no longer prepare bark to calculate problems Students can no longer prepare bark to calculate problems. They depend instead on expensive slates. What will they do when the slate is dropped and breaks? Teacher’s Conference, 1703

Students depend on paper too much Students depend on paper too much. They no longer know how to write on a slate without getting dust all over themselves. What will happen when they run out of paper? Principal’s Association Meeting, 1815

Students depend too much upon ink Students depend too much upon ink. They no longer know how to use a knife to sharpen a pencil. National Association of Teachers, 1907

Students depend too much on store bought ink Students depend too much on store bought ink. They don’t know how to make their own. What will happen when they run out? Rural American Teacher, 1928

The Changing Environment Globalization Economic restructuring Need for up-to-date, college trained, workforce; for continuous retraining Exploding clientele Changing clientele Older, working, raising children Takes longer to get degree Concern for cost California expects 488,000 additional undergraduates within the next 10 years. Oregon’s legislature adopted a policy supporting access to higher education for every qualified Oregonian\ Traditional student declining: at Cal State system, typical undergrad is 26, working 20 hours per week, perhaps while raising children Problem of access is particularly acute in developing world. 3/4 of population in South Africa and Palestine is under 20. They may not get the taining for employability and mass education to inspire them--they will grow up to be unemployed, unconnected, and unstable. In the US, the cost of sending a child to college is approaching 15% of median family income (9% 15 years ago) in public institutions. Private: 40% (up from 20% 15 years ago). Americans are questioning in this investment returns value for the money. Costs are increasing faster than inflation.

Percent of Firms Downsizing by Business Category This was a report of a 1994 American Management Study of 713 major U.S. Companies. Over the past five years, 2/3sof US companies haveundergone downsizing (16.7 milion jobs cut since 1991). American Management Association annual survey reports that nearly 30% of employers plan to eliminate jobs this year, the highest percentagein the survey’s 8 year history. Typically, the number of firms that actually make cuts is double the number of those that say they will. Friedman, Jill. “Four Questions to Ask Before Accepting a Buyout.” Working Woman, October 1996, pp 25-26. Source: Chicago Tribune, August 21, 1995

From 1980 to 1994, the U.S. contingent workforce—temps, self-employed, consultants—increased 57%

Today, 65% of all workers use some type of information technology in their jobs. By 2000, this will increase to 95%.

Constant training, retraining, job-hopping, and even career-hopping will become the norm.

The Enrollment Pipeline High School Graduates, 1979-2004 (millions of students) 3.0 2.8 We Are Here! 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 2004 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 source: WICHE

An Aging Clientele for Higher Education

Projections Today Tomorrow (2000) 3,613 institutions 672 new campuses 16 million students $156b in operations Tomorrow (2000) 672 new campuses 20 million new learners $235b to build $217b/year to operate Box 1 (upper left) Today: we are supporting 16 m students, costing blah blah blah Box 2 (lower box) Workforce Analysts predict that there will be over 141 million workers in the workforce by the year 2000. In order for these workers to maintain their basic employment skills in the information age, they will require the equivalent of 30 credit hours every 7 years. Thus, there will be approximately 20 million (141/7 years) new learners seeking learning opportunities every year. Box 3 (upper right) In order to support this many new learners in our current environment, it would require blah blah blah. In order to meet this demand one institution would need to open every eight days. Workforce Statistics 141 million workers 1/7 require 7 credit equivalents/year Source: Michael Dolence AACRAO 1997

Supply and Demand Demand for Education L e a r n s Resources Available Time

The Changing Environment Self Service and Convenience No longer school - work - retire model Massive Expansion of Potential Students Immigration continues to exceed births Older Citizens Continuing professional/occupational education

The Changing Environment New competition in higher education Old-line institutions have discovered satellites and the Internet Traditional “service areas” fair game for all New for-profit educational providers Certification monopoly at risk employers concerned about competency employers relying less on diplomas Outcomes assessment coming on line--Western Governors University College costs exceeding inflation--concern for ROI In the US, the cost of sending a child to college is approaching 15% of median family income (9% 15 years ago) in public institutions. Private: 40% (up from 20% 15 years ago). Americans are questioning in this investment returns value for the money. Costs are increasing faster than inflation.

Trends SCT Distance Education Survey

Cyber-Universities 1993: 93 1997: 762 Signals Four years ago Peterson's "Distance Learning" guide counted 93 "cyberschools" where students could earn degrees without setting foot on campus. In 1997, the list had grown to 762. In "I Got My Degree Through E-Mail" [June 16, 1997 issue of FORBES], Lisa Gubernick and Ashlea Ebeling chart the rise of virtual colleges and summarize the reasons why the number of students who choose non-traditional paths to getting an education is increasing dramatically. The authors present viewpoints ranging from economists who hail cyberschools as the best solution for college education, to advocates for the superiority of in-residence programs. A list of Forbes' top 20 cyber-universities, along with Web links, is included in the article. The article is available online at http://www.forbes.com/forbes/97/0616/5912084a.htm

Examples Magellan University College Connection Education Network of Maine Colorado Electronic Community College Coastline Community College University College of Maryland California Virtual University Western Governors University Magellan: renown authorities lecturing; small groups with tutors connected via computer networks College Connection: Jones Intl, offers courses and degree programs from participating universities Ed Network of Maine: presents courses from the Maine system and beyond; a separate service of the University Coastline: college without a campus, famous for video telecourses Univ. College (MD): offers conferences and seminars t courses housed in regional centers and distance ed courses that rely on info technology WGU: accountability and assessment

Technological Tools The Internet/e-mail WWW Productivity tools (e.g., Microsoft Office) Videodisks CD ROM Video-conferencing

Learning: Children Are learning machines excited by learning, exploring eager to try new things not self-conscious about failure not depressed about how they are progressing willing to experiment, to reflect Small children love to learn, at least before they get to school. No two-year-old has ever taken a walking class, yet any physically healthy two-year-old can walk. No three-year-old has ever taken a talking class, yet every physically healthy three-year-old can talk. No four-year-old has ever taken a course in geography or planning, yet every physically healthy four-year-old can find a room in his home, knows his neighborhood, and can navigate around in his own environment.

Children are trying to do something rather than to know something are learning by doing control their learning by using an adult to guide them through new areas of investigation—one-on-one assistance, as-needed basis

Natural Learning occurs when the person really wants to know something not compatible with lockstep classrooms, rigid curricula, or measurable by multiple choice tests When information enters memory that in no way relates to goals that the possessor of the information may want to accomplish, it is quickly forgotten because there is no meaningful place for it to reside.

Principles Learning is driven by the natural need to do Knowing is driven by doing Children learn facts because they have the need to know them, because these facts will help them do something they want to do

Public School learn what someone else wants them to learn—teacher and curriculum goals no longer learn because they want to emphasis on rote learning, standardized curriculum success: not being able to do, but being able to function within the system In school, knowing becomes uncoupled from doing “just in time learning” ; not learning to use the computer at 10:00 on 10 May, or whenever the curriculum says to learn that fragment of knowledge. Work with a community of people with diverse knowledge rather than with the age-segregated community called a “class.”

“Your instructional system is driven by teaching rather than by learning, by the needs of professors rather than students.” Sir John S. Daniel, 1997 John S. Daniel (1997). Why universities need technology strategies. Change, July/August, 11-17.. Quote is on page 15.

Uses of Technology in Distance Learning Allows professors to customize instruction Overcomes constraints of time and place Meets needs of rural students Allows institutions to collaborate Links colleges to K-12 systems Builds partnerships with business Offers professional and update education Education Network of Maine Eastern Oregon University serves a region the size of Pennsylvania with a total population of 160,000\ Oklahoma State University developed programs for high schools when it raised its entrance requirements and the public schools had no way to offer the necessary courses Partnerships: NTU, a separately accredited institution, drawing upon the courses of 46 member colleges, offers master’s degree programs and advanced short courses for engineers. Classes are transmitted by satellite and received in facilities provided by participating companies. Update: UT at Knoxville offers series of teleconference for state’s law enforcement personnel; Oregon State has programs in agriculture

Uses of Technology Meets needs of handicapped students Extends the institution’s reach Maine imports library science graduate degree program from South Carolina NTU programs are offered in Asia California Virtual University markets in the Pacific Rim Offers economies of scale

“…with good learning materials, effective networks, and proper support, students can learn better at home than in class.” P. 16. Sir John Daniel, 1997

What are the issues in distance learning?

Which Approach? Individual learning primarily via asynchronous communication Group teaching via synchronous communication

Issues Role of professor Time Plagiarism Unreliable sources From course topic From students From teachers Plagiarism Unreliable sources

Does distance learning technology facilitate access, lower costs, and maintain quality? Look at mega-universities that teach over 100,000 students via distance education. 11 in world, all outside of the US, that enroll 2.8 million students. (In US, 3,500 colleges enroll 14 million--$12,500 per student. Mega-universities: $350 per student. When compared to costs in their own countries, somewhere between half to 10% of costs.