Violence, Inequality and Poverty in the Americas

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Presentation transcript:

Violence, Inequality and Poverty in the Americas Presentation to the Poverty Reduction Network Andrew Morrison Inter-American Development Bank November 11, 2002

Are there any good shorthand measures of violence? Homicides? Intra-family violence?

Homicide rates by world region, 2000 Source: WHO, 2002. World Report on Violence

WORLD HOMICIDE RATE (per 100,000 persons) 8.86 9 8 7 6.35 5.93 5.82 6 5.47 5 1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 Source: M. Buvinic & A. Morrison, 2000. “Living in a Violent World”, Foreign Policy #118.

Low, medium and high violence countries: mid 1990s (homicide rate >20) Medium violence (10<homicide. rate<20) Low violence Homicide rate < 10 Colombia (61.6) Venezuela (16.0) Nicaragua (8.4) El Salvador (55.6) Ecuador (15.3) Guyana (6.6) Brazil (23.0) Mexico (15.9) Costa Rica (5.4) Bahamas (14.9) Argentina (4.7) Paraguay (12.6) Uruguay (4.4) Trinidad/Tob (12.1) Chile (3.0) Panama (10.9) Source: WHO. 2002. World Report on Violence

PREVALENCE OF DOMESTIC VIOLENCE IN LATIN AMERICA Percentage of women victimized by physical violence, 1996-1997 Chile Colombia Nicaragua Paraguay Perú Note: various sources.

Inequality matters World Bank study (Fajnzylber, Lederman and Loayza) 34 countries, 1970-1994, yearly data. Identify determinants of homicide and robbery rates Inequality matters: increase in Gini leads to increase in both homicide rate and robbery rates; larger increase in long run because of inertia Level of GDP per capita is not statistically significant, but growth rate is  5% drop in GDP increases robbery rate by 50%

And poverty? Not explicitly included in World Bank study Exploratory econometric analysis by Londoño y Guerrero on determinants of homicide rates for 17 countries, 1970-1995 poverty does matter; so does income distribution confirmed for recent analysis of “delitos contra el patrimonio económico” in Colombia (Yepes Delgado, 2000)

ECONOMIC COSTS OF VIOLENCE IN SELECTED LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES* * % of GDP Source: Juan Luis Londoño. 1998. “Epidemiología económica de la violencia urbana”

Earnings impact of severe physical violence against women 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Mean monthly earnings in Santiago, 1997 Without abuse With abuse US$ 61% less

Elements of the IDB’s response Not all violence is the same Undertake serious situational diagnostic Focus on risk factors Emphasize prevention, but recognize that control is essential Evaluate, evaluate, evaluate Loan projects approved to-date: Colombia, El Salvador, Jamaica, Uruguay Many intra-family violence TCs

SERIOUS CRIMES AVOIDED PER MILLION DOLLARS SPENT, CALIFORNIA (1998) 300 250 200 150 100 50 Home visits Family support Graduation incentives Intensive supervision Three strikes law Source: Greenwood, Peter. 1998.