Topographic influence on the distribution of Phytophthora ramorum

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Presentation transcript:

Topographic influence on the distribution of Phytophthora ramorum US Forest Service Topographic influence on the distribution of Phytophthora ramorum Chris Jones 11/25/2014

Phytophthora Ramorum Oomycete 2 types of diseases: Canker (Sudden Oak Death) Foliar (Ramorum Blight)

Phytophthora Ramorum Hosts Q. agrifolia Quercus agrifolia Rubus spectabilis Quercus kelloggii Aesculus californica Quercus parvula var. shrevei Rhamnus californica Quercus chrysolepis Rhamnus purshiana Lithocarpus densiflorus Corylus cornuta Arbutus menzeisii Lonicera hispidula Vaccinium ovatum Viburnum spp. Arctostaphylos spp. Toxicodendron diversilobum Rhododendron spp. Trientalis latifolia Umbellularia californica Sequoia sempervirens Acer macrophyllum Pseudotsuga menziesii Heteromeles arbutifolia U. californica L. densiflorus P. menziesii

P. Ramorum Range and Data PRISM DEM 30 meter Interpolated FIA and CALVEG tree data P. ramorum plot data

Topographic Calculations Elevation Fill 𝑇𝑊𝐼=𝐿𝑛 𝐹𝐴𝐶+1 ∗𝐶𝑒𝑙𝑙 𝑆𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑇𝑎𝑛 𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒 Flow Direction Slope (Degrees) TWI = Topographic Wetness Index FAC = Flow accumulation Flow Accumulation TWI

Topographic Wetness

Potential Model Variables RF Topographic Climate California laurel TWI Monthly Average PPT California live oak Slope Monthly Mean TMAX California black oak Elevation Monthly Mean TMIN redwood tanoak Pacific Madrone Douglas Fir

Significant Model Variables Estimate Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.139 0.022 TWI 0.008 TMAX3 -0.364 <0.001 TMAX8 -0.215 0.001 TMAX9 0.278 TMAX12 0.156 0.002 TMIN1 -0.318 0.048 TMIN2 0.380 PPT4 -0.004 0.044 PPT5 0.018 0.036 PPT7 -0.855 California Bay Laurel 0.501 0.030 AIC = 60.0051 Adj. R^2 = 0.456

Acknowledgements Aaron Moody Ross Meentemeyer David Tarboton Oliver Lucas Jones

Questions