R. Kolli, B. Nyenzi and L. Malone World Climate Programme Dept. WMO CLIPS PROJECT : A GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR SEASONAL FORECAST APPLICATIONS R. Kolli, B. Nyenzi and L. Malone World Climate Programme Dept. World Meteorological Organization Geneva, Switzerland WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Climate Application Climate information used for more than just curiosity value Climate information that influences decision making Climate information that is effectively converted into ‘climate knowledge’ Unless the information provided positively influences at least one decision it has NO VALUE Thanks to: Holger Meinke WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Value of Climate Information and Services to Society the nature of the dependence of socio-economic activities on climatic factors reliability of climate products including awareness of the associated uncertainties and their implications to decision-making accessibility of credible and useful climate information for decision making liaison between users and climate information providers the ability of users to act on the basis of climate information WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

World Climate Applications and Services Programme (WCASP) & CLIPS WCASP & CLIPS aim to provide an essential link between climate prediction/information and their applications: Primary objectives: to develop the capacity of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) to take advantage of recent advances in the science of climate and in the processing and dissemination of climate information, and to pass on the benefits of the improved climate services to the user community. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain CLIPS : need for inter-programme coordination recognized right from the beginning Congress requested the Secretary-General and the president of CCl to take appropriate action to ensure interprogramme coordination of the development of the Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) project within the framework of CCl in coordination with the Joint Scientific Committee for WCRP and with necessary interaction with other constituent bodies of WMO and GCOS. Congress emphasized the need for provision of required data and other necessary information in order to ensure optimal development and global dissemination of climate prediction services…(Paragraph 3.2.2.10, Report of the 12th Session of the World Meteorological Congress, 1995) WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Climate Products, Information and Services Databases of information gathered over many years Predictions of climate variability over the next season or two (seasonal to inter-annual forecast) Climate information is just one of the elements in the decision making matrix The term “services” refers to the delivery of climate information and predictions from the scientific sources to end-users A service is a service only when it is used; our goal is to make people use climate services in real-world context WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain CLIPS Main Tasks Enhance capacity of NMHSs in SIPs and their applications Develop guidelines and methodologies on SIPs and applications on climate sensitive sectors and systems Provide users with information based on new scientific understanding and establish links between providers of and users of SIPs Work closely with international research community, especially WCRP, to exploit latest research advances as well as to address research needs. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Capacity Building Establish CLIPS Focal Points; Global/regional networking of CLIPS Focal Points; CLIPS Training Workshops; Development of CLIPS training Curriculum; Engaging end-users through workshops, projects and Regional Climate Outlook Forums. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain CLIPS Focal Points A global network of experts specially trained in climate science, statistical modelling and prediction, applications and project management. CLIPS Focal Points ensure national and regional coordination of climate information and prediction products. Reporting of CLIPS activities by CLIPS Focal Points, and sharing the reports through WMO portal. Close coordination of CLIPS activities through regional working groups on climate related matters (WGCRMs) WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Applications Coordination of demonstration and pilot projects; Involvement of Focal Points in demonstration and pilot projects; Assessment of impacts of climate services on applications; Examination of data requirements and tailored climate products. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Infrastructure and Forecasting Facilitate access to products of Global Producing Centres (GPCs) of long-range forecasts; Development of Regional Climate Centres (RCCs); Examination of forecast presentation/ communication methods; Best practices; Downscaling/Empirical Tools/Regional Climate Models; Sustained Regional Climate Outlook Forum sessions; Joint activities with research programmes such as WCRP. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) A component of CLIPS First established in 1996 (Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe), just before the major 1997–1998 El Niño event Regional mechanism for the formulation and dissemination of climate forecasts and outlooks Bring together providers of and users of SIPs; facilitate partnership approach. Constitute an important vehicle, particularly in developing countries, for providing advance information on the likely climate features of the upcoming season, and for preparing a consensus product from amongst the multiple available individual predictions. RCOFs stimulate the development of climate capacity in the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the area, and do much to generate decisions and activities that mitigate adverse impacts of climate and help communities adapt to climate variability. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain RCOFs RCOFs active in several regions where NMHSs meet to develop regional consensus on SIP. Typically involve a PRE-COF session to jointly work towards the consensus outlook, and COF session to disseminate and assist in user interpretation. More than 40 forums held throughout the world. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain RCOFs Worldwide West Coast of South America Caribbean West Africa Southern Africa Greater Horn of Africa Southeastern South America Pacific Asia Central America WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain CCl-XIV OPAG 3: CLIPS ET 3.1 Research needs: intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual prediction Sector-specific needs, verification and assessment of capabilities Methodologies for creation and presentation of prediction products Support to user decision process ET 3.2 CLIPS Operations, Verification and User Liaison Assess skill of climate predictions and potential to meet user requirements Guide to best operational practices Requirements of NMHSs, RCCs and users for verification information Costs and benefits of of climate products and services; user needs ET 3.3 El Niño/La Niña Definitions and indices; Atlas of regional impacts; WMO Updates Rapporteurs on Agrometeorology and on Hydrology Coordinate with WCRP, AREP, CBS, CAS, DPM, Space/GEO, RCD (LDCs and more), Global Producing Centres of LRF, and with OPAG 4 AREP: Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme Programme sur la recherche atmosphérique et l’Environnement WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

CCl-XIV OPAG 4: Climate Applications and Services ET 4.1 Climate and Health Heat-Health Warning Systems Health-related information & early warning systems; infectious diseases; Health and climate change ET 4.2 Climate and Energy Climate services for energy development and operations Climate aspects of renewable energy sources ET 4.3 Climate and Tourism Role of climate in touristic frequentation/destination Sustainable tourism ET 4.4 Urban and Building Climatology Urban and building climate science; Education and Training Urban modelling; Partnership building; Guidelines; Technical Notes Coordination with OPAG3 – CLIPS; WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

WCASP/CLIPS activities continue Congress XV (2007) endorses continuation of WCASP/CLIPS; calls for an Implementation Plan for future evolution of CLIPS. Capacity building; training workshops RCOF sessions; extension to more regions WMO Conference on « Living with Climate Variability and Change: Understanding the Uncertainties and Managing the Risks », July 17-21, 2006, Espoo, Finland; integration of outcomes into CLIPS future plans. Development of CLIPS webpages + Curriculum Expansion/revitalization of the CLIPS Focal Point Network RCC development; WMO designation process underway Guidance documents on topical issues (heat-health warning systems; verification of LRF, best practices in user-liaison, …) TNs: Energy; Urban climatology; Socio-Economic benefits Partnership building, especially for Health/Energy/Tourism WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain The Espoo Conference WMO Conference on "Living with Climate Variability and Change: Understanding the Uncertainties and Managing the Risks ", co-sponsored by Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Main Espoo Outcomes (1/4) The roles of climatic processes are often not recognized in human crises, leading to inappropriate decisions; e.g., the conflict in Darfour, Sudan. The main conclusion from Espoo is that, to reduce the risk of bad choices made in situations where there is a strong interaction between climate and societal processes, it is necessary to adopt a more systematic approach. It was proposed that all components of the Society dealing with risk management (Governments, NMHSs, communities, civil security, etc…) make a typology of risks they face, of exposed entities, and of possible responses, in order that the vulnerabilities of Society can be analysed and mapped. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Main Espoo Outcomes (2/4) Every major social, economic and environmental sector is sensitive to climate variability and change, both of which are significant factors in each sector's sustainable development. Policy formulation and operational decision-making in climate sensitive sectors will be improved by more widespread use of climate knowledge and information in managing risks and exploiting opportunities (referred to as climate-related risk management), resulting in better preparedness. There is a need for efforts to assemble disparate knowledge, to identify good practices, and to assess the value of, and give visibility to, climate-related risk management. Implementation of climate-related risk management is complex, requires multidisciplinary structures, collaborations and the free and cross-disciplinary exchange of datasets. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Main Espoo Outcomes (3/4) The practice of climate-related risk management is not widespread within many sectors and there is a lack of awareness of climate-related risk management opportunities among numerous communities that would benefit. The process of developing effective climate-related risk management works best if it is: driven by the needs and requirements expressed by relevant decision sectors developed within real-world decision contexts enabled through facilitating institutions and policies based on environmental, sectoral and socio-economic data based on tailored climate information supported by local capacity included in planning strategies that incorporate incentives supported by sector-specific services from NMHSs and related institutions. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Main Espoo Outcomes (4/4) These mechanisms could promote: evaluation of current climate-related risk management in all relevant sectors better assessments of the value of climate-related risk management establishment of data sets necessary to inform decision making research to improve climate-related risk management development of decision-support tools capacity building in climate-related risk management on-going evaluation of outcomes the use of suitable financial mechanisms in support of climate-related risk management. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Climate Prediction : Uncertainty issues SIP as well as climate scenarios are probabilistic by nature. Multi-model ensemble approaches allow for the uncertainties in model formulation to be integrated into the estimation of probabilities associated with such predictions/projections. Methods are available for estimating the value of SIP based on cost-benefit approach Performances of SIP models generally well known from “hindcasts”. Espoo conference showed that, possibly unknown to several NMHSs and even the climate community, economists and policy makers have developed advanced tools for decision making under uncertainty (risk management). WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Risk Management and Climate Change: COP12 Outcomes The 12th session of the COP to the UNFCCC, (Nairobi, 6-17 November 2006), welcomed statements and relevant papers by WMO and the IPCC regarding their possible contributions (including those of NMHSs) to the implementation of the 5-year programme of work on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change. That means that NMHSs should be proactive in the establishment of national plans for adaptation to climate variability and change in cooperation with socio-economic sectors and government representatives, on the basis of: the WMO Concept Paper presented at UNFCCC/COP12 (a real commitment of WMO and NMHSs) WMO WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain Concluding Remarks WCASP/CLIPS will continue to promote the development of climate services with a major focus on SIP. CCl Expert Teams are charged with re-focused strategies to help develop the regional/national capacities in developing climate services. Networking between climate information providers, researchers, users and other stakeholders will be essential. Local ownership of SIP products crucial for their effective use; enhancement of regional capacities in research/operations need to be proactively pursued, particularly in developing countries. Expansion of RCOFs There is a clear need for close coordination between SIP research community (WCRP/CLIVAR/TFSP/WGSIP) and WCP/WCASP/CLIPS to optimize SIP applications in real world context. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

Thank You. Dr. R. Kolli Chief, World Climate Applications and CLIPs Division Tel: 41.22.730.8377 Fax: 41.22.730.8042 Email: RKolli@wmo.int WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain