Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast March 8, 2013

2050 California Growth 50 Million by 2050 San Joaquin Valley: 25 Percent of New Growth Nearly 50 Percent of New Growth in Southern California 6 Percent of New Growth in San Diego Change in Total Population: 2010 - 2050 Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Report P-1 (County): State and County Total Population Projections, 2010-2060. Sacramento, California, January 2013.

DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY History of Forecasting: Model Accuracy San Diego Population ***We can always revert back to the other one. Let’s see what people think. The other one with all the series line is chaotic, but may be easier for the average person to understand.*** Note: Boxes represents range of forecast predictions. For example, SANDAG has provided a projection for 2005 since Series 4 through Series 11. The lowest projection was 2.8 million. The highest projection was 3.3 million. The average projection was just over 3 million. The actual population in 2005 was just over 3 million as well. DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY

Population, Jobs, and Housing Result DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY Population, Jobs, and Housing 2010 - 2050 973,000 more people 479,000 more jobs 333,000 more housing units DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY

DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY Result DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY Components of Change San Diego Population Change calibration period on domestic migration model to take 1990-present into account (rather than 1970-present). DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY

Population: Rate of Change Annual Rate of Change

DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY Assumption DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY Fertility Rates Discussion on convergence assumptions. Recommendations for further investigation: Convergence makes sense, but maybe not as dramatic a change. Provide more documentation on convergence rates. Compare to other states (e.g. Arizona) with respect to the population remaining in-state (mostly recent migrants? Mostly later generations?) Look at changes in linguistic isolation as a marker of convergence Check against US Census Bureau assumption about convergence Historical source: California Department of Health, Vital Statistics (1980 data is U.S. rate from CDC) Projection assumption: Return to pre-recession (2006) birth rates by 2015. White rate constant 2015-50, other rates converge by 40% to white rate by 2050. DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY

DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY Assumption DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY Life Expectancy Life Expectancy (Years) Updated to reflect 2012 projections from U.S. Census Bureau PANEL REQUEST: Test the model with other life expectancy assumptions (especially those from US Census Bureau projections). Some models have 4-5 year increase in life expectancy. RESPONSE: Updated tables with new life expectancy data, now almost exactly the same as U.S. Census Bureau projections for 2050 (except where SANDAG projections are slightly higher because local survival rates are slightly higher than national average). Historical source: California Department of Health, Vital Statistics (1990 data for Asian reflects a composite of all Asian/other records) Projection assumption: Life expectancies updated to reflect 2012 Census projections (except where San Diego base year and future assumptions were higher than national average) DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY

Distribution of International Migrants Assumption DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY Distribution of International Migrants International Migrants 46% male 54% female Source: Used 2006-2010 PUMS to get detailed age/race/sex characteristics of foreign born entered 2000 or later. UPDATE since last meeting Controlled distributions to published 2011 totals by race and sex. New data from ACS shows higher % female foreign born. Historical source: 2006-2010 American Community Survey and 2011 American Community Survey persons “Foreign born; Entered 2000 or later” Projection assumption: Held constant. DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY

Domestic Migration Patterns Assumption DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY Domestic Migration Patterns Destination County Estimated Outflow Riverside (CA) 14,673 Los Angeles (CA) 11,234 Orange (CA) 6,926 Maricopa (AZ) 6,693 San Bernardino (CA) 3,870 Clark (NV) 2,420 San Francisco (CA) 2,313 Alameda (CA) 2,246 Pima (AZ) 2,164 Santa Clara (CA) 2,101 Origin County Estimated Inflow Los Angeles (CA) 16,330 Orange (CA) 9,321 Riverside (CA) 8,709 San Bernardino (CA) 4,203 Maricopa (AZ) 4,156 Santa Clara (CA) 3,640 Clark (NV) 2,200 Honolulu (HI) 2,167 Ventura (CA) 2,137 Imperial (CA) 1,874 Comments from first meeting: Look at different states and metro areas for migration pattern assumptions. Convergence or divergence? Double check source. Look up Jim Chang’s work on PUMS to estimate out-migrants. Follow up: Revised based on new estimates of 2010 migration distribution (forward-aged the non-military population from 2000 Census, added foreign migrants, and compared with 2010 counts to reverse-estimate domestic migration) Source: American Community Survey, 2005-2009 DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY

San Diego Region Age Structure 2010 and 2050 DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY San Diego Region Age Structure 2010 and 2050 Male Female 5 Year Age Group Report median age for each year Population DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY

DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY Result DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY Race/Ethnicity Hispanic 32% 2010 2050 DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY

Educational Attainment Median Age = 43.6 Median Age = 41.6 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey

Educational Attainment Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey

San Diego Median Income Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey

Distribution of Jobs by Industry Result DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY Distribution of Jobs by Industry % of Total Jobs Historical source: QCEW California Employment Development Dept. (annual average) Projection assumption: Each industry’s jobs forecast is driven by US job growth by industry and a local market index DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY

DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY Result DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY Median Home Price Median Home Price (000s) DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY

Population, Jobs, and Housing Result DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY Population, Jobs, and Housing 2010 - 2050 973,000 more people 479,000 more jobs 333,000 more housing units DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY