Magnitude 7.2 Metro Manila Earthquake Scenario Scenario sources: PHIVOLCS GMMA-Risk Analysis Project (RAP, 2014), Metro Manila Earthquake Contingency Plan (Oplan Yakal Plus, 2015) and Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS, 2004)

The Parameters Valley Fault System M 7.2 EQ event Loc: 12.087E, 14.65N Depth: 5 km Faulting: Strike Slip Sources: GMMA-RAP and MMEIRS Report

PHIVOLCS Earthquake Intensity Scale VII Most people are frightened and run outdoors. People find it difficult to stand in upper floors. Heavy objects and furniture overturn or topple. Big church bells may ring. Old or poorly-built structures suffer considerably damage Some well-built structures are slightly damaged Some cracks may appear on dikes, fish ponds, road surface, or concrete hollow block walls. Limited liquefaction, lateral spreading and landslides are observed. Trees are shaken strongly. (Liquefaction is a process by which loose saturated sand lose strength during an earthquake and behave like liquid). PHIVOLCS Earthquake Intensity Scale VIII People panicky. People find it difficult to stand even outdoors. Many well-built buildings are considerably damaged. Concrete dikes and foundation of bridges are destroyed by ground settling or toppling. Railway tracks are bent or broken. Tombstones may be displaced, twisted or overturned. Utility posts, towers and monuments mat tilt or topple. Water and sewer pipes may be bent, twisted or broken. Liquefaction and lateral spreading cause man- made structure to sink, tilt or topple. Numerous landslides and rock falls occur in mountainous and hilly areas. Boulders are thrown out from their positions particularly near the epicenter. Fissures and faults rapture may be observed. Trees are violently shaken. Water splash or stop over dikes or banks of rivers. Sources: PHIVOLCS- Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System (REDAS) & PHIVOLCS web site, http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/Earthquake/Scale/peis.html

Ground Shaking within National Capital Region Sources: GMMA-RAP Hazard Map, GIS-clipped to PSA NCR Shapefiles

Analysis on NCR vulnerability characteristics Reason for the Regional Separation Summary Source: MMEIRS Report

Sources: Oplan Yakal Plus, GIS-processed into PSA Shapefiles

Sources: Oplan Yakal Plus, GIS-processed into PSA Shapefiles

Planning Figures NCR 12.88 Million Population (PSA Census 2015) Sources: GMMA-RAP, MMEIRS Report and Oplan Yakal Plus 12.88 Million Population (PSA Census 2015) 51% Female, 49% Male 4% Senior Citizen, 28% Children Age 14 & below 2,660 Households, 8% are recipient of government cash grant (PSA) >31,000 Fatalities, >13,000 Life-Threatening Injuries (GMMA-RAP, 2010 Census-based) 2.88 Million people to be displaced (Oplan Yakal Plus) 9.6 M square meters of buildings will collapse completely (GMMA-RAP) 11% of 10 to 30-story buildings will be heavily damaged (981 buildings in 2004, MMEIRS) 2% of 30-60 story buildings will be heavily damaged (119 buildings in 2004, MMEIRS) > 175,000 houses will be heavily damaged (MMEIRS) 8-10% of Public Purpose Buildings will be heavily damaged (MMEIRS) $45.38 Billion total economic losses (GMMA-RAP) 500 fire incidents, >25,000 fatalities due to fire (Oplan Yakal Plus & MMEIRS) 9 Major Bridges with moderate to high possibility of falling-off (MMEIRS) 4,000 joints of water supply pipes will break (MMEIRS) 30 km of cables cut, Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Lines (MMEIRS)

Map showing extent of casualties Sources: GMMA-RAP Hazard Shapefiles from PHIVOLCS, GIS-clipped to PSA Hazard Shapefiles

Casualties Per LGU in National Capital Region (Earthquake Risk Analysis, GMMA-RAP) Sources: GMMA-RAP Shapefiles from PHIVOLCS, GIS-clipped and processed to PSA Hazard Shapefiles

Map showing collapsed damaged state and economic losses Sources: GMMA-RAP Hazard Shapefiles from PHIVOLCS, GIS-clipped to PSA Hazard Shapefiles

Building Damage per LGU (in sq.m.), Economic Loss and Damaged Houses (Earthquake Risk Analysis, GMMA-RAP and MMEIRS) Sources: GMMA-RAP Shapefiles from PHIVOLCS, GIS-clipped and processed to PSA Hazard Shapefiles and MMEIRS Report

HAZARD MAPS Ground Rupture Ground Shaking Source: GMMA-RAP Hazard Maps Electronic Copy (PHIVOLCS)

Earthquake-Induced Landslide HAZARD MAPS Liquefaction Earthquake-Induced Landslide Source: GMMA-RAP Hazard Maps Electronic Copy (PHIVOLCS)