Hilya Arini Tim Bedford, John Quigley, Calvin Burns DEVELOPING A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TRUST BEHAVIOUR IN EMERGENCY EVACUATION: A COMPARATIVE CASE STUDY IN CANADA AND INDONESIA Hilya Arini Tim Bedford, John Quigley, Calvin Burns

Outline Background Research Objectives Research Methods

If the fire alarm in this room suddenly rings, what would you do?

Quickly run and find the emergency exit without considering what other people do Run and find the emergency exit in a group after being asked by the leader in this room to evacuate Run and find the emergency exit after your friends started to evacuate Do nothing (Not evacuate)

Trust is “a psychological state comprising the intention to accept vulnerability based upon positive expectations of the intentions or behaviour of another” (Rousseau et al., 1998, p. 395).

Natural Disaster in Indonesia Indonesia sits along a volatile seismic strip called the ‘Ring of Fire’ in the Pacific. Volcanic eruptions and earthquakes occur regularly, which can present a potential threat of tsunamis. Fig 1. Aceh Tsunami Fig 2. Yogyakarta Earthquake Fig 3. Merapi Eruption

Volcano Eruption in Indonesia Mount Merapi has erupted more than 80 times. This is the biggest eruption since 1832.  In its 2010’s eruption, according to data from Indonesian National Board for Disaster Management, 277 people died and 186 people injured.

Emergency Evacuation in Indonesia

Research Questions To identify and distingusih the current role of government and an influential non-government persons during emergency evacuation in Canada and Indonesia. To develop a conceptual model of trust behaviour before building Agent Based Modeling (ABM).

Agent-based Modeling (ABM) ABM is a computer simulation technique adopting bottom-up approach to understand and predict the system by simulating individual behaviour and interactions, and capture collective or emergent behaviour resulted from individual interaction in a dynamic system (North and Macal, 2007) The Interface of ABM Simulation by Wagner & Agrawal (2014)

Agent-based Modeling (ABM) The general steps include: model conceptualization/design, implementation, validation/verification, and analysis of data.

Behavioural aspect in ABM According to North and Macal (2007), the behaviours of agents are the heart of ABM. Properly specified and valid agent behaviours as well as their interactions in conceptual model are required to obtain a useful ABM in emergency evacuation. The oversimplification of agents’ behaviour from reality enables to result in questionable theory and an ill-conceived basis for the efficacy of model (Eden, 1989).

Problem Structuring Methods in ABM Modeling Agent System based on Institutional Analysis (MAIA) framework by Ghorbani & Schrauwen (2013) As PSM, this framework is believed that enables to structure qualitative data through an ethnographic process served to build conceptual model as input to ABM.

Five interrelated structures in MAIA The collective structure actors to define agents by capturing their characteristics and decision criteria based on expert’s perception and goals, The constitutional structure to show agent’s roles and institutions, The physical structure to reflect the non-social environment that the agent are embedded in, The operational structure to present an action arena with different situations in which agents interact as they are affected by the environment, The evaluative structure to explain the concepts with the help of which the modeller can indicate what patterns of interaction, evaluation, and interested outcomes. Ghorbani & Schrauwen (2013)

Research Methods Develop interview guidance Conduct pilot study Conduct semi-structured interview and workshop Document result and building conceptual model Validate conceptual model by Focus Group Discussion

The UML class diagram for the MAIA meta-model (Ghorbani et al. 2013)

Contributions Provide theoretical contribution by focusing on behavioural theory prior to develop decision analysis model in emergency evacuation. Provide a methodological contribution through the application of problem structuring approach to collect qualitative data for building a conceptual model in ABM. Provide an empirical contribution through an empirical interviews with evacuation specialists and key people involved in managing evacuations in Canada and Indonesia. Provide a practical contribution through a conceptual model that can be used as the basis to model people trust behaviour during emergency evacuation with ABM. At the end, the ABM can help decision maker to develop an effective communication strategy during emergency evacuation situation in Canada and Indonesia.

Cultural Theory of Risk The Four Groups in Cultural Theory

The Role of Trust in Emergency Evacuation Paton et al. (2010) stated that the emergency evacuation decision can also be influenced by the different cultures and countries. Stoyan, Niedzwiecki, Morgan, Hartlyn, & Espinal (2014) who conducted a research about institutional trust added that different countries can have different institutional trust level. Citizens in countries with high institutional trust level will be more participating on institutional engagement e.g. emergency evacuation.