Coal heating; Global and regional perspective, data gaps and other challenges Z. Klimont (klimont@iiasa.ac.at) Summit on Black Carbon and Other Emissions from Combined Cooking+Heating and Coal Heating Stoves A joint initiative of the CCAC, ICCI, GACC, and the Government of Poland May 29 -30, 2017, Warsaw, Poland

Activity data and technology structure International and national energy statistics do not provide the necessary detail to allocate residential coal use to stoves/boilers/larger-boilers Is the coal used in stoves and its characteristics as in statistical data? Is coal the only fuel used in these stoves/boilers? Technology structure of residential coal heating often poorly or not known Most models and even national inventories do not include this kind of details in emission calculation Several global and regional energy projections estimate decline in residential coal use We attempt to resolve residential sector into several subcategories drawing on a mixed bag of sources, e.g., peer reviewed papers, regional reports, communication with national and local experts, assuming similarities between regions, etc.

Global coal use in residential-commercial sector in 2010 Source: IEA (2015), GAINS Category Fuel use ( million tce) Heating stoves 25 Heating boilers 8 Cooking stoves 78 Other 85 TOTAL 196

Global estimate of coal consumption for household combustion in stoves for space heating by country, 2010. Source: GAINS Model. Region ‘Other FSU’ includes Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan.

Global PM2.5 emissions, Tg Highlighting the role of residential combustion Source: GAINS model (IIASA); Baseline energy scenario from the World Energy Outlook 2011 (IEA)

Country contributions to total PM2 Country contributions to total PM2.5 emissions from household combustion of coal in stoves for space heating, in 2010. Source: GAINS model.

Country contributions to total BC emissions from household combustion of coal in stoves for space heating, in 2010. Source: GAINS model.

Percent contribution of coal heating stoves to total national PM2 Percent contribution of coal heating stoves to total national PM2.5 emissions (red) and residential combustion emissions (blue). Source: GAINS model. Region ‘Other FSU’ includes Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan.

Percent contribution of coal heating stoves to total national BC emissions (red) and residential combustion emissions (blue). Source: GAINS model. Region ‘Other FSU’ includes Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan.

Estimated change in BC emissions from household combustion of coal for space heating, 2010-2030. A positive value indicates greater expected BC emissions in 2030. Source: GAINS model, IEA (2015)

Emissions of PM2.5 from residential combustion in the EU-28; Source: WHO (2015), GAINS

Emissions of BC from key sources in the EU-28; Source: WHO (2015), GAINS Coal stoves and boilers

Regional distribution of mitigation by key measures; Source: GAINS model BC [kt]

Impact of BC measures Change in 2030 anthropogenic emissions relative to the reference emissions of each compound; Source: GAINS model Maximum reduction Cumulative reduction of all selected measures