The role of TRANSPORTATION in a robust economy UTA Transit Academy May 31, 2017

Our Mission: To develop and share economic, demographic and public policy data and research that help individuals and the community make informed decisions. Our Vision: To be a vital gathering place and center for independent economic, demographic and public policy thought leadership.

Utah’s robust economy – past, present, future Transportation and economies of agglomeration A challenge…

April 2016 – April 2017 Job Growth US = 1.4% Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data (CES)

Employment as a Percent of 2007 Peak End of 2016: Utah and the United States Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data

25-Year Job Growth 1990-2015, US = 28.4% Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data (QCEW)

1990 – 2015: Utah, Nebraska, Arkansas, Mississippi Total Jobs 1990 – 2015: Utah, Nebraska, Arkansas, Mississippi Note: Vertical axis does not begin at zero. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW)

History: 1960-2016 & Projection: 2017 - 2065 Utah’s Population History: 1960-2016 & Projection: 2017 - 2065 Sources: Utah Population Estimates Committee, Utah Population Committee, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Components of Population Change History: 1960-2016 & Projection: 2017 - 2065 Sources: Utah Population Estimates Committee, Utah Population Committee, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

How did we get here? How do we get there? AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES Worker utility [productivity] Number of workers

AGGLOMERATION EFFECTS Transportation networks are a key condition Source: Centre for Cities Transportation networks are a key condition

AGGLOMERATION DISECONOMIES Congestion Worker utility [productivity] Number of workers Pollution Salt Lake Tribune

Mitigate Diseconomies Extend Economies/ Mitigate Diseconomies With Public Transit Congestion Worker utility [productivity] Number of workers Pollution Salt Lake Tribune

CHALLENGE

U.S. Household Expenditures The share of expenditures that are taxable is shrinking; growth in sales tax collections is not keeping pace with growth in the economy U.S. Household Expenditures Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey

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