Xuexing Qiu and Fuqing Dec. 2014

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Presentation transcript:

Xuexing Qiu and Fuqing Dec. 2014 Doppler Radar Data Assimilation for a Local Severe Rainfall Event with PSU–EnKF System Xuexing Qiu and Fuqing Dec. 2014

The event（0-6UTC 30th June 2013） 1h precipitation 185mm/6h 12 killed in this event

ECMWF deterministic forecast ECMWF EPS POP > 30mm

Experiment design (36 members) 9km HSRD 3km X 1km 12Z/29 21Z/29 00Z/30 06Z/30 EnKF Forecast perturb_ic NODA

Radial velocity Analysis EnKF: LLJ height and wind shear was corrected

RMSE and Spread of radial velocity RMSE_prior mean = 2.1m/s RMSE_post mean = 1.3m/s 38% error reduced Spread_prior mean = 2.3m/s Spread_post mean = 0.7m/s

Composite Reflectivity Analysis With increase times of EnKF, CR was closer to observation

6h rainfall Simulation 00 -- 06Z 30 June NoDA: southerly position, spurious center EnKF: the amounts and positions of precipitation getting better

FSS(Fraction Skill Score) Scale length: N = 80km For > 50mm/6h: after 3 and 4 times EnKF, FSS of DF greater than NoDA ,EnKF was more skillful

Ensemble forecast results Precipitation Ensemble Mean NODA EnKF 00Z30 POP > 50mm/6h NoDA: the event was very sensitive to initial condition. EnKF reduced the uncertainty. Mean consistent with DF

1h Rainfall Simulation 05Z30 04Z30 03Z30 02Z30 OBS EnKF 22Z29 EnKF 23Z29 EnKF 00Z30 01Z30 ENKF: improve precipitation forecasting within 4 hours

FSS (1h rainfall simulation) FSS skillful ≈ 0.5 21Z29 22Z29 : no skillful 23Z29 : 1 -- 3h skillful 00Z30: 1-- 4h skillful

Composite reflectivity Simulation

Sensitive Experiments Cntrl： 1km EnKF ，1km DF，4cycle Cntrl_1cycle ：1km EnKF ，1km DF，1cycle(00Z30) EnKF1_DF3： 1km EnKF ，3km DF, 4cycle EnKF3_DF3： 3km EnKF ，3km DF，4cycle EnKF3_DF1 ：3km EnKF ，1km DF，4cycle

6h Rainfall Simulation Enkf1_DF3 Cntrl_1cycle Cntrl Enkf3_DF3

FSS of sensitive experiment EnKF resolution was the most important factor for simulation results and the followed was the times of EnKF, DF resolution was slight important.

Further EnKF for new cells OBS 04Z30 OBS 05Z30 perturb_ic 12Z/29 21Z/29 00Z/30 06Z/30 EnKF DF 03Z/30 Add 3 times EnKF

1h Rainfall simulation( from 03Z30) Further experiment showed that radar data assimilation by EnKF could forecast local precipitation well

Summary and Conclusion By assimilating Doppler radar data , PSU-EnKF system can predict this local heavy rainfall event accurately ahead 2-3 hours. In this event, assimilation of radar data can improve precipitation forecasts within 4 hours the EnKF resolution was the most important factor for simulated results and the followed was the times of EnKF.