Security issues Session 6

Displacements as a source of conflicts? Increased pressure on resources Happens mostly within weak, fragile states Ex: Darfur Cumulative process: comes on top of socio- economic, poltical issues Importance of the governance of migration

Evidence on climate and conflict

Threats to stability and security Increase in the number of weak and fragile states Risk for global economic development Distributional conflict between polluters and sufferers Human rights violations / Crises of legitimacy Migration Inter-state conflicts (destabilisation processes, state failures)

Three types of threat Civil conflicts Border conflicts Environmental crises make states more fragile Ex: Earthquake in Haiti Possible conflicts for resources and for land Crises of legitimacy of states cannot meet the demands of their populations Border conflicts Can be linked to migration Can be linked to the management of common resources Ex: India and Bangladesh International disputes Conflicts between polluters and victims

Scientific controversies Initial works by Thomas Homer-Dixon Emphasises the linkages between environmental degradations and social troubles. Controversies on the security impacts of climate change Maximalist perspective: Randall and Schwartz 2003 ‘An abrupt climate change scenario’ Burke and al. 2010 ‘Global warming increases the risk of civil wars’ PNAS Minimalist perspective: Buhaug 2011 ‘Climate change not to blame’ PNAS

The securitisation of the climate discourse

Instrumentalisation of the ‘climate refugees’ Climate change often presented as a security risk in order to prompt states to act on climate change: To reduce their greenhouse gas emissions To fund adaptation Instrumentation of the climate-security nexus for the pursuit of an environmental agenda Instrumentalisation of the ‘climate refugees’

Scientific challenges Special issue of Climatic Change, March 2014