Systems Thinking and Activities Involved in Disaster Preparedness and Response Title: Arial –Centered- Font 32 pt. Photos: Inserted into text boxes Icons obtained from ELI/OCHA/UNEP etc. NOTE: We are trying to obtain a UNEP logo that doesn’t show the shading along the edge of the box.

Overview Part 1: Introduction to Systems Thinking Part 2: Applying Systems Thinking to Evacuation Planning Part 3: Case Study: Using Systems Thinking to Assess Evacuation Planning Effectiveness Part 4: Case Study: Group Reflection and Discussion Part 5: Conclusion Title: Arial Entered font 44pt Body: Arial font 22 pt Left

Introduction to Systems Thinking Background: Photo Filled Similar Photos Available at: UNEP Disasters & Conflicts Albums-https://www.flickr.com/photos/unep_dc/ Text Box: 28 pt Arial font Part 1: Introduction to Systems Thinking

Systems Thinking Used to create an understanding of the dynamic and interrelated nature of the entire human-environment system

Systems Thinking

Applying Systems Thinking to Evacuation Planning Background: Photo Filled Similar Photos Available at: UNEP Disasters & Conflicts Albums-https://www.flickr.com/photos/unep_dc/ Text Box: 28 pt Arial font Part 2: Applying Systems Thinking to Evacuation Planning

Population in the Process of Evacuation Population that Reached Safety A Linear Approach to Evacuation Planning Population Under Threat Population in the Process of Evacuation Population that Reached Safety

Population in the Process of Evacuation Population that Reached Safety A Systems Approach to Evacuation Planning Danger Recognition Acceptance Concern Rate Total Conditions Social Factors Evacuation Flood Warnings Knowledge of Refuge Places Total Population Inundation of Refuge Routes Evacuation Orders + ( – ) ( + ) – Population Under Threat Population in the Process of Evacuation Population that Reached Safety

Causal Loop Diagramming Key to a Systems Approach Population Under Threat Population that Reached Safety Title: Arial Entered font 44pt Body: Arial font 22 pt Left HYPOTHESIS: As the population that reaches safety goes UP, the population under threat goes DOWN.

Causal Loop Diagramming Key to a Systems Approach Population Under Threat Population that Reached Safety Title: Arial Entered font 44pt Body: Arial font 22 pt Left HYPOTHESIS: As the population that reaches safety goes UP, the population under threat goes DOWN.

Causal Loop Diagramming Key to a Systems Approach Population Under Threat Population that Reached Safety Title: Arial Entered font 44pt Body: Arial font 22 pt Left But what if things don’t go as expected? HOW CAN CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAMS HELP?

Background: Photo Filled Similar Photos Available at: UNEP Disasters & Conflicts Albums-https://www.flickr.com/photos/unep_dc/ Text Box: 28 pt Arial font Part 3: Case Study: Using Systems Thinking to Assess Evacuation Planning Effectiveness

How Can Causal Loop Diagrams Help with the Unexpected? Population Under Threat Population that Reached Safety What if this group has not yet reached safety? Do they realize that they should be evacuating? Is their evacuation route blocked? Have they decided not to evacuate? Perhaps our Causal Loop Diagram needs to be a bit more complex if we want to address these questions?

Capturing Complexity with Causal Loop Diagrams Population Under Threat Population in the Process of Evacuation Population that Reached Safety What if we add a loop that captures the moment when individuals make the decision to evacuate?

Evaluating a Revised Causal Loop Diagram Population Under Threat Population in the Process of Evacuation Population that Reached Safety HYPOTHESES: 1.) As the Population in the Process of Evacuation goes UP, the Population Under Threat goes DOWN.

Evaluating a Revised Causal Loop Diagram Population Under Threat Population in the Process of Evacuation Population that Reached Safety HYPOTHESES: 1.) As the Population in the Process of Evacuation goes UP, the Population Under Threat goes DOWN. 2.) As the Population in the Process of Evacuation goes UP, the population that reaches safety goes UP.

Case Study: Group Reflections and Discussion Background: Photo Filled Similar Photos Available at: UNEP Disasters & Conflicts Albums-https://www.flickr.com/photos/unep_dc/ Text Box: 28 pt Arial font Part 4: Case Study: Group Reflections and Discussion

Whole Group Brainstorming HYPOTHESIS #2 As the population that reaches safety goes UP, the Population in the Process of Evacuation goes UP. Imagine that our hypothesis ends up being untrue. The Population in the Process of Evacuation is not Reaching Safety. What are some possible reasons for this?

Small Group Brainstorming HYPOTHESIS #1 As the Population in the Process of Evacuation goes UP, the Population Under Threat goes DOWN. Imagine that our hypothesis ends up being untrue. The Population Under Threat is not beginning the Process of Evacuation. What are some possible reasons for this?

Case Study: Conclusion Background: Photo Filled Similar Photos Available at: UNEP Disasters & Conflicts Albums-https://www.flickr.com/photos/unep_dc/ Text Box: 28 pt Arial font Part 5: Case Study: Conclusion

Final Notes About Causal Loop Diagrams There is no one “correct” or “finished” Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). They contain the collective knowledge of those who create them. They are created as hypothesis about why a system is acting the way it is. New stakeholders would provide new knowledge and a different perspective how they system operates. As new knowledge is obtained, the CLD can be modified. The main benefit of the creation of the CLD is not the diagram itself, but the discussions that arise during its development.

Thank you! Swathi Veeravalli