Climate Change: A Real Threat to Middle East Security

Background About FoEME FoEME study region- Egypt, Israel, Palestinian Authority (PA), Jordan, southern Lebanon Climate Change impacts on water security and regional stability.

Background The Middle East-a politically volatile region Israel/Egypt Peace Treaty but cold peace 1994 Jordan/Israel Peace Treaty including agreement over the sharing of common water resources Interim agreements with PA and Israel but water sharing left to final status No Peace Treaty or water agreements with Lebanon and Syria

Background Study region characterized by water scarcity: most of the water sources are shared between neighboring countries

Background Agriculture of key economic importance to Egypt, PA and lesser extent Jordan Population GDP $US (% Agric- ulture) Water resources (m2 /capita year Surface Area (sq. km.) Egypt 74,032,884 15 % 859 1,001,450 Israel 6,923,600 1-2 % 276 22,070 Palestinian Authority 3,626,000 9-25 % 52 6,020 Jordan 5,473,000 3-4% 179 88,780

Security Implications of Climate Change Fewer Water Resources Available for Existing Agreements Israel/Jordan more difficult to comply with Jordan River water sharing arrangement - 50 mcm/pa Jordan/Israel more difficult to comply with Yarmouk River water sharing arrangements – 27 mcm/pa Israel still to provide Jordan with additional 50 mcm/pa – never fulfilled Israel/PA future needs recognized 70-80 mcm/pa. In final agreement PA demands will be higher. Desertification: previously agriculturally productive and ecologically ‘green’ (forest, woodlands, bushlands) area to become arid/semiarid, this could include the whole of northern Israel Decrease in water supplies: a compounding outcome of reduced groundwater percolation, a shorter rainy season, increased rates of evapotranspiration of up to 10%, together with reduced precipitation Sea level rise -> loss of coastal lowlands and flooding

Security Implications of Climate Change Fewer Water Resources Available for Future Agreements Israel/Lebanon sharing of the Jordan River tributaries Israel/Syria sharing of the Jordan and sources of the Sea of Galilee Desertification: previously agriculturally productive and ecologically ‘green’ (forest, woodlands, bushlands) area to become arid/semiarid, this could include the whole of northern Israel Decrease in water supplies: a compounding outcome of reduced groundwater percolation, a shorter rainy season, increased rates of evapotranspiration of up to 10%, together with reduced precipitation Sea level rise -> loss of coastal lowlands and flooding

Security Implications of Climate Change Less rainfall impacts the economy PA economy heavily dependent on rain fed agriculture for income and employment Jordan Valley bread basket of Jordanian food production and rural support backbone of Kingdom’s political stability Israeli agricultural lobby powerful across political divide Desertification: previously agriculturally productive and ecologically ‘green’ (forest, woodlands, bushlands) area to become arid/semiarid, this could include the whole of northern Israel Decrease in water supplies: a compounding outcome of reduced groundwater percolation, a shorter rainy season, increased rates of evapotranspiration of up to 10%, together with reduced precipitation Sea level rise -> loss of coastal lowlands and flooding

Security Implications of Climate Change Sea Level Rise will impact the Israel PA coastal aquifer Further increase salinity of drinking water for Gaza Further contaminate Israel’s coastal aquifer Desertification: previously agriculturally productive and ecologically ‘green’ (forest, woodlands, bushlands) area to become arid/semiarid, this could include the whole of northern Israel Decrease in water supplies: a compounding outcome of reduced groundwater percolation, a shorter rainy season, increased rates of evapotranspiration of up to 10%, together with reduced precipitation Sea level rise -> loss of coastal lowlands and flooding

Sea Level Rise will heavily impact Egyptian economy Security Implications of Climate Change Sea Level Rise will heavily impact Egyptian economy Read out figures on top right hand corner of each map

Socioeconomic Impacts Severe water shortages Agricultural losses Migration in search of resources Refugees from inundated lands Economic crisis Agricultural losses: Reduction in agricultural productivity, due to a reduction in crop productivity in temperatures increased over 2 °C, shorter crop growing seasons, loss of agricultural lands to coastal inundation, desertification, salinisation; saltwater encroachment into groundwater aquifers, increasingly common bad harvests due to pests and disease Disease and health impacts: increase of cold sensitive diseases-Leishmaniasis, tick-borne diseases, Reduced efficiency of water drainage systems-> malaria (breakdown of climatic barrier between Egypt and Israel), cholera (expected to increase particularly with longer hotter summers), dysentery, West Nile virus fever, giardiasis, bilharzia. Also an increase in climate related illnesses due to increased extreme weather events and greater seasonal variation; particularly in elderly and children. Increase in respiratory disorders due to increased dust storms

Political Ramifications Increased tension between countries sharing water resources Difficulties for governments to provide for their country’s needs-> internal instability, likelihood of failed states Exacerbated marginal living conditions- foster extremist and radical ideologies and conflicts – General Anthony Zinni CNA report conclusion - Climate change- a threat multiplier for human security