Future mosquito-borne disease threats in Australia Australian Society for Microbiology, 12-15 July 2015, Canberra #2015ASM @mozziebites Future mosquito-borne disease threats in Australia Dr. Cameron Webb Department of Medical Entomology Marie Bashir Institute of Infectious Disease & Biosecurity University of Sydney & Pathology West – ICPMR Westmead Westmead Hospital, Westmead NSW 2145

Difficult to predict future changes in mosquito-borne disease risk with climate change #2015ASM @mozziebites Will the response of mosquitoes to a changing climate increase the risks of disease? cathy wilcox ‏(@cathywilcox1) http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html

Australia has annual activity of endemic mosquito-borne pathogens Local risks shift from swamps to suburbs with exotic mosquitoes #2015ASM @mozziebites Australia has annual activity of endemic mosquito-borne pathogens Exotic vectors and pathogens have potential to shift disease risks from the swamps to the suburbs

We need to change the ways we catch and kill mosquitoes #2015ASM @mozziebites Surveillance and mosquito control strategies will need to adapt to changing landscape of mosquitoes and pathogens

Only one mosquito in Australia can spread dengue viruses Only one mosquito in Australia can spread dengue viruses. It’s in FNQ backyards #2015ASM @mozziebites The Yellow Fever Mosquito (Aedes aegypti) is a day-biting pest and vector in tropical regions Dengue outbreaks are driven by the presence of Aedes aegypti but are triggered by infected travellers Stephen Doggett (Medical Entomology, Pathology West – ICPMR Westmead)

Newcastle Morning Herald and Miners' Advocate (NSW), Look back to see the dengue risk ahead of us in Australia #2015ASM @mozziebites Newcastle Morning Herald and Miners' Advocate (NSW), 31 December 1927

Arrival of Asian Tiger Mosquito will be a game changer for temperate regions #2015ASM @mozziebites The Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive, severe day-biting species of tropical and temperate regions Stephen Doggett (Medical Entomology, Pathology West – ICPMR Westmead)

Asian Tiger Mosquito could easily adapt to life along the east coast of Australia #2015ASM @mozziebites Hill, M. P., Axford, J. K. and Hoffmann, A. A. (2014), Predicting the spread of Aedes albopictus in Australia under current and future climates: Multiple approaches and datasets to incorporate potential evolutionary divergence. Austral Ecology, 39: 469–478.

Cold winters are no barrier to the Asian Tiger Mosquito in temperate regions #2015ASM @mozziebites Recent studies show immature stages don’t survive a “Sydney winter”…but eggs will survive and hatch in spring…going on to proliferate in summer Nicholson, Ritchie, Russell, Zalucki and van den Hurk (2014) Ability for Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) to Survive at the Climatic Limits of Its Potential Range in Eastern Australia. Journal of Medical Entomology 51:948

Asian Tiger Mosquito can co-exists with mosquitoes in temperate regions #2015ASM @mozziebites Recent studies demonstrate competition from local mosquitoes is no barrier to establishment or spread Nicholson, Webb , Ritchie and van den Hurk (2015). Effects of cohabitation on the population performance and survivorship of the invasive mosquito Aedes albopictus and the resident mosquito Aedes notoscriptus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Australia. Journal of Medical Entomology [in press].

Australian travellers increasingly returning to Australia infected with dengue #2015ASM @mozziebites Knope et al. 2013. Increasing notifications of dengue in Australia related to overseas travel 1991-2012. CDI 37: 55-59

Introduction and spread of Asian Tiger Mosquito “sets the scene” for future outbreaks #2015ASM @mozziebites Asian Tiger Mosquito provides the tinder in temperate zones waiting for the spark provided by an infected traveller…

Japan experienced the biggest outbreak of dengue in 70 years in 2014 Dengue outbreaks in temperate regions a risk when Asian Tiger Mosquito active #2015ASM @mozziebites Japan experienced the biggest outbreak of dengue in 70 years in 2014 Webb (2014) What can the outbreak of dengue in Japan tell us about future mosquito-borne disease risk? https://cameronwebb.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/what-can-the-outbreak-of-dengue-in-japan-tell-us-about-future-mosquito-borne-disease-risk

Future mosquito-borne disease outbreaks driven by wetlands and wildlife #2015ASM @mozziebites Future mosquito-borne disease risk will be determined by more than just temperature, tides and rainfall (or exotic mosquitoes) Drivers of outbreaks may include wildlife conservation, wetland rehabilitation and urban developments

Role of native wildlife in endemic mosquito-borne disease outbreaks requires research #2015ASM @mozziebites

Mean national monthly notifications of Ross River virus disease 2015 outbreak of Ross River virus disease biggest on record #2015ASM @mozziebites Mean national monthly notifications of Ross River virus disease Number of notifications of Ross River virus infection, received from State and Territory health authorities in the period of 1991 to 2014 and year-to-date notifications for 2015 (National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System – Accessed 12 July 2015)

Why so much Ross River virus disease in 2015? Warm spring and wet summer drivers of Ross River virus outbreak #2015ASM @mozziebites Why so much Ross River virus disease in 2015? Warmest spring on record Wet start to Summer Rainfall above average Summer and early Autumn Abundant (and diverse) vector populations in coastal NSW/QLD Macropods? Webb (2015) “Is climate change to blame for outbreaks of mosquito-borne disease?” The Conversation http://theconversation.com/is-climate-change-to-blame-for-outbreaks-of-mosquito-borne-disease-39176

Surveillance. Management. Education. Strategic regional responses required to reduce future mosquito-borne disease risk #2015ASM @mozziebites What does all this mean? When it comes to the future risk of mosquito-borne disease in Australia, perhaps the climate change debate is a distraction from what we need. Surveillance. Management. Education.

Visit my website: http://cameronwebb.wordpress.com Email: Cameron.Webb@health.nsw.gov.au Join the conversation on Twitter: @mozziebites Mosquito illustration on opening slide provided by Golly Bard https://www.etsy.com/shop/GollyBard