Early Theories Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) Karl Marx (1818-1883) Ester Boserup (1910-1999)

Marx and Engels: Population Indifferent? The problem is not population growth but the economic structure. Each person produces more than he or she consumes. More people should equal more wealth. Increased poverty/inequality is a result of the capitalist economic system. Population growth is good because it will break the back of capitalism and lead to the next step – communism. Agreement with Malthus? Poor laws are bad because they delay the destruction of capitalism.

Critiques of Marx Like critiques of other pieces of Marx’s work, history has not supported his thesis. Birth rates in communist countries are some of the lowest in the world. Does this prove Marx wrong?

Ester Boserup: Population Optimist “The very distinction between fields and uncultivated land is discarded and instead emphasis is plces on the frequency with which the field is cropped…. soil fertility, instead of being treated as an exogenous or even unchangeable ‘initial condition’ of the analysis, takes its places as a variable, closely associated with changes in population density and related changes in agricultural methods.” -The Conditions of Agricultural Growth

Consequences of population growth Temporary decrease in productivity per hour Change in agricultural technology that allows for greater food production If production per person goes down, more people will be utilized in the labor market (women)

Critiques of Boserup Based on observation of present-day societies to make claims about past behavior. There may be unconquerable limits to the fertility of the soil. Deterministic? How does this apply to non-agricultural economies?

To be continued… Current theories about the dynamics of population growth and decline. Move beyond whether pop growth is good/bad to the relationship between birth rates and death rates. The Demographic Transition: the one theory demographers can hold onto, or can they?

The Demographic Transition

What is demographic transition? Descriptive: the process of change in a society’s population. The process has four stages. The process is irreversible.

Stage One: Low Growth Very high and varied birth and death rates Virtually no long-term population growth Most of human history was spent in stage one There is no stage one country today

Stage Two: High Growth Death rate suddenly plummets, but birth rate remains roughly the same as in stage one High natural growth rate (rapid population growth) Countries in Europe and North America entered stage two in late 18th or 19th century

Stage Three: Moderate Growth Birth rate begins to drop sharply, death rate continues to fall but at a much slower rate than in stage two Population continues to grow, but at a more modest rate Countries in Europe and North America entered stage three during the first half of 20th century Some countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America have entered stage three in recent years

Stage Four: Low Growth Birth rate declines to the point where it almost equals the death rate The natural growth rate approaches to zero, which is called Zero Population Growth (ZPG) Several countries have entered stage four: Sweden, Denmark, Germany, U.K. U.S. has not completely moved into stage four

Expectations of Demographic Transition an older age structure: fewer births and longer life expectancy over time lead to older median age a surplus of females, who have tended to live longer higher levels of income and education higher female labor-force participation * Much larger population than beginning. * *

From Description to Theory Modernization: “the process of societal development involving urbanization, industrialization, rising standards of living, better education, and improved health that is typically associated with a “Western” lifestyle and worldview.” Theory linked to description = development causes populations to go through the process of the demographic transition.

Critiques Doesn’t describe LDCs. Can’t predict timing or levels of changes. Doesn’t even describe MDCs well. Additional stages: 5th stage of “Population Decline”

Why are LDCs different? Higher starting levels of births Higher starting levels of deaths Mortality declined due to external aid rather than internal economic development Maybe not development, but some other unknown reason: secularization, education, cultural similarity?