Explaining the DTM

Flashback Cast your mind back to GCSE Geography. What can you remember about the Demographic Transition Model? Working in pairs you have 5 minutes to draw the DTM and as many appropriate labels as you can.

How did you do?

Learning Objectives What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)? To what extent is the DTM valid and what are it’s limitations?

What is the DTM? The Demographic Transition Model is a based on Warren Thompson’s theory of demographic transition, or population change. Thompson was a Malthusian who believed that population growth causes problems. He argued that population, food supply and economic development are all linked, and that changes in one will bring about changes in the others. Thomson developed a classification system, grouping countries into categories based upon their vital rates Group C = Poor, Group B = Industrialising, Group A = Wealthy. Thompson assumed that as countries industrialised they would progress from Group C to Group A over four stages.

The DTM is based on Thompson’s theory. It is a geographical model which describes how the population of a country changes over time as a country passes through different stages of economic development.

Initially there were 4 stages, but a 5th stage has recently been added to represent development from a pre-industrialised to an industrialised economy. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=NVTPGBLyU5I ticking sound The DTM shows how changes in the Birth Rate (per 1000) and Death Rate (per 1000) impact upon the Total Population

Lets take a closer look!

High Fluctuating Actually the reality is a little more complex. The birth rates and death rates fluctuate around 35 per 1000 in this stage, Low population growth Limited birth control / family planning. High IMR encourages high BR – children a source of income / insurance in old age. Children a sign of fertility. Some religions encourage large families.

The Death rate drops to around 20 per 1000 Death rate falls due tom improvements in public health / sanitation, better nutrition etc. Improved medical; care increases life exp, reduces IMR The result is rapid population growth

Early Expanding Cultural / religious reasons

DR is approx 12 per 1000

BR approx 16 per 1000. Population continues to grow at a slower rate Late Expanding BR approx 16 per 1000. Population continues to grow at a slower rate

DR is 10 – 12 per 1000 and fluctuates slightly

Low fluctuating BR 12 – 16 per 1000. Population growth is steady with slight fluctuations

Decline 2 groups of countries have entered this stage since the mid 1990s: Central and eastern Europe where BR has fallen below replacement level. S Africa where Aids has increased the death rate (stage 1?)

Natural Increase Peru, Sri Lanka UK 1760 - 1880 Natural Decrease Canada, USA UK post 1940 Rainforest tribes UK pre 1760 China, Cuba UK 1880 - 1940 Hungary, Japan UK?

Task: Describing the DTM You have been given an outline of the Demographic Transition Model and a number of statements. Add the appropriate stages to your diagram (Declining, Early expanding / High fluctuating / Low fluctuating / Late expanding) Complete the diagram by adding the labels (Birth Rate, Death Rate, Total Population, Natural Increase and Natural Decrease) Cut out the statements and stick them under the correct stage of the DTM.

Changes in Population Characteristics / Demographic Transition Model Background reading Read pages 146–157 Changes in Population Characteristics / Demographic Transition Model

Learning Objectives What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)? To what extent is the DTM valid and what are it’s limitations?