THAAD in Korea and NE Asia J.J. Suh (ICU) August 2016

THAAD in Korea & Northeast Asia What? Who? When? How? Where? Why? Consequences

What? THAAD: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense 사드 포대 = 발사대 3개 + 발사통제통신체계 + AN/TPY-2 레이다 + 24발 요격 미사일

THAAD Interceptor Missile

THAAD Test (2011.10) October 5, 2011 - A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor is launched during the system's first operational test at 1:56 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time Oct. 5 at the Pacific Missile Range Facility, Kauai, Hawaii. The test was conducted by the Ballistic Missile Defense System Operational Test Agency with the support of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. During the test the THAAD system engaged and simultaneously intercepted two ballistic missile targets. Learn more at http://www.mda.mil/system/thaad.html.

http://www.heritage.org/~/media/infographics/2015/06/bg3024/bg-thaad-figure-2.ashx

Who Wants THAAD? Blue House Saenuri Party? The Democratic Party? Non-Park? Pro-Park? The Democratic Party? U.S. Defense Contractors U.S. Government White House Department of Defense

Rockheed Martin Marketing (2013) Riki Ellison, the founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance said the x-band radar attached to the THAAD system would be able to track missiles over a large area, offering protection not just for South Korea but also for Japan and the U.S. Riki Ellison, the founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance said the x-band radar attached to the Thaad system would be able to track missiles over a large area, offering protection not just for South Korea but also for Japan and the U.S.

U.S. Defense Scapparotti, Commander, USFK Winnefeld, VC of the JCS “[THAAD in Korea] is a U.S. initiative, and in fact, I recommended it as the commander.” (2014.6) Winnefeld, VC of the JCS North Korea poses a threat to the US. “We are not betting on Dennis Rodman as our deterrent against a future North Korean (intercontinental ballistic missile) threat” (2014.5)

When? 1999 U.S. Defense Report Based on Rumsfeld Report (1998) 2013 March: Cancel the 4th Stage Europe Missile Defense Plan Adds more ground-based interceptors in Fort Greely (Alaska) Deploys THAAD in Guam Decides to add an X-band radar in Japan 2014 April U.S.-ROK Summit: “interoperable missile defense systems” and “trilateral information sharing” May Wall Street Journal “The U.S. has conducted a site survey…for a THAAD battery” May James Winnefeld (VC JCS): weighing a plan to deploy THAAD June Scapparotti “initial consideration” June Kim Gwan-Jin (Min Def) : “do not object” September Robert Work (DS Def): “Considering to deploy a THAAD battery in Korea” “consulting with the Korean government” October US Missile Defense Agency: To deploy an X-band radar in Japan by end of the year December Trilateral Information Sharing MOU 2015 February John Kirby (Spokesperson, Def) “continue to consult with the Korean side” February Tony Blinken (DS, State) “No Decision, No Substantive Consultation” Mark Lippert (Amb, Korea) : “no official consultation channel with the Korean government”

How? U.S. Pentagon studies (1999~) USFK THAAD training (2011~) U.S. Pentagon contracts THAAD (2013~) U.S.-ROK Summit 2014 USFK land survey (2014) Trilateral Info Sharing MOU (2014 December) Consultation with ROK (2014~)

Where? Candidates http://thumb.mt.co.kr/06/2015/03/2015033120507684046_8.jpg

Seongju Covers: Osan-Pyeongtaek Daegu Busan Away from the North’s long-range artilleries Radar range is over 2000km

Why? North Korean Nuclear Missile “Threat” To Defend SK? NK launches ‘Eunha-3’ 2012 December Panetta (SecD) : “It’s an intercontinental ballistic missile, for God sakes. That means they have the capability to strike the United States.” (2013 Jan) US taking Countermeaures from 2013 Director, Missile Defense Agency 2014 Blinken, DS, State 2015 To Defend SK? To Defend USFK? To Monitor China? To Defense CONUS

To Defend ROK – Rockheed Martin (2013)

THAAD Intercept Range (terminal) http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2015/06/south-korea-needs-thaad-missile-defense

Impossible to Defend ROK! US DOD(1999) Low Tier Defense Systems needed to defend northern areas including Seoul Dean Wilkening (2000) 520 THAAD missiles needed to defend against 100 SCUD missiles from the North Stimpson Center (2010) Questions the Effectiveness of Upper Tier Missile Defense Systems

Nodong Missile Trajectories

To Defend USFK? Multi-tiered Defense Missile Defense Ineffective Upper Tier THAAD Lower Tier Patriot-3 Missile Defense Ineffective Short range missiles and long range artilleries Dummy missile heads Defective missile bodies IBRD flies over THAAD

Multi-Tiered Defense

THAAD Radar Range

To Defend U.S. Con Guam and Okinawa Northern Trajectories 2 X-band radars in Japan Aegis systems in the seas Ground based interceptors in Alaska Ground based interceptors in California Southern Trajectories Integrated missile defense systems No defense Revised Integrated MD? THAAD in South Korea 마틴 뎀프시 미 합참의장 2015녀 3월 한미 합참의장 회담 “통합미사일방어 등 다양한 한ㅁ동맹의 성과에 대해 논의했다.”

http://www.heritage.org/~/media/infographics/2015/06/bg3024/bg-thaad-map-1-common-trajectories-825.ashx

ICBM Northern Trajectories

ICBM Southern Trajectories

Integrated Missile Defense

Figure 1. The land-based radar sensor network for the U. S Figure 1. The land-based radar sensor network for the U.S. BMDS spans the northern hemisphere.  Aegis radars on ships and at Aegis Ashore sites are not shown.  Missile Defense Agency figure.[11] https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2016/06/30/strategic-capabilities-of-sm-3-block-iia-interceptors-june-30-2016/

http://www.hani.co.kr/arti/international/america/697371.html

Notional Interceptor Range - liquid fuel ICBM Black arrows = fly-out velocity of 4.5km/s Yellow arrows = fly-out velocity of 6km/s Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense, National Research Council (2014) SM-3 IIA has velocity of 4.5km/sec (jointly developed with Japan) (SM-3 IIB 5-5.5km/sec, but cancelled in 2013.3)

Notional Interceptor Range - solid fuel ICBM The kill vehicle of THAAD flies at 10km/s. THAAD’s response time = 130 seconds Jong-dae Kim, Disputing the Phantom: The Deployment of THAAD to South Korea, EAF Policy Debates No. 14 (2014-11-11).

Postol, How Strategic Anti-Missile Defense of the United States Could Be Made to Work, 2011.

ICBM Height and Distance Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense, p. 47

THAAD Intercept Range (ascend)

THAAD Radar + KEI

Consequences Economic Costs Security Costs 1~3 trillion Won per battery * 2~4 batteries=? Worst outcome for the most expensive ‘China cost’ Security Costs Korean Peninsula US-China SK-Japan-US vs. NK-China-Russia? 사드 1개 포대 도입 비용 = 카타르 1조원 ~ 아랍에미리트 3조원 한미방위비분담금협정 = 한국 분담금 매년 9200억원

Korean Peninsula THAAD and Kill Chain New Stage in Arms Race Preemptive Strike or First Strike? New Stage in Arms Race US nuclear vs. NK asymmetric capabilities US nuclear first strike vs. NK nuclear US nuclear first strike + missile defense Defense is Offense within Deterrence  NK nuclear first strike?

X-Band Radar’s Reach

Kill Chain Elements

Theoretical Questions Bourdieu: “Doxa” Foucault: “governmentality” Sovereignty Krasner: “hypocrisy” Anderson: “imagined community” Polanyi: “double movement”s Globalization & Neoliberalization Brexit Pivot to Asia New Kind of Big Power Relationship

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