The Powers and Perils of Intuition Exploring Social Psychology by David G. Myers The Powers and Perils of Intuition Module 7 Copyright © 2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.

? Are we wise or foolish?

.. According to one estimate, the circuitry in the human brain has 60 times the informational capacity of the entire U.S. telephone system!

.. A second marvel is the mind’s information-storage capacity. Donald Norman, Director of the Program in Cognitive Science at the University of California at San Diego, believes that each of us holds something like 50,000 facts about every topic on which we are reasonably knowledgeable (e.g., our own bodies, our personal idiosyncrasies, the arrangement of our homes and environs, the words and grammar of our native language).

.. The mathematician John Griffith calculates that in the course of a lifetime the average person can accumulate 500 times as much information as is contained in the Encyclopedia Britannica.

The Powers of Intuition Blaise Pascal “The heart has its reasons which reason does not know”

The Powers of Intuition Thinking is partly controlled-reflective, deliberate, conscious Thinking is partly automatic-impulsive, effortless - Schemas - Emotional reactions - Expertise - Implicit memory - Blindsight - Prosopagnosia-ex: capacity to recognise a face

The Limits of Intuition Elizabeth Loftus and Mark Klinger (1992) “the unconscious may not be as smart as previously believed.” Error-prone hindsight judgments Capacity for illusion Perceptual misinterpretations Fantasies Constructed beliefs

We Overestimate the Accuracy of Our Judgments Overconfidence phenomenon

We Overestimate the Accuracy of Our Judgments Overconfidence phenomenon Confirmation bias

OVERCONFIDENCE “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” (Ken Olson, president of Digital Equipment Company, 1977)

. “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” (Lord Kelvin, British mathematician, physicist, and president of the British Royal Society, 1895)

. “Reagan doesn’t have the presidential look.” (United Artists executive, when asked whether Ronald Reagan should be offered the starring role in the movie The Best Man, 1964)

. “A severe depression like that of 1920–21 is outside the range of possibility.” (Harvard Economic Society, Weekly Letter, November 16, 1929)

Remedies for Overconfidence Two techniques have successfully reduced the overconfidence bias: Prompt feedback Determine why one’s judgments might be wrong

Constructing Memories We construct memories at the time of withdrawal We reconstruct distant past by using our current feelings and expectations to combine information fragments!

Constructing Memories Reconstructing our past attitudes Reconstructing our past behaviors Rosy retrospection: Construction of positive memories brightens our recollections!

The four-card problem Now think of the following problem: Pretend someone was to show you four cards, each with a letter on one side and a number on the other. The sides facing up show D, 3, B, and 7. What cards would you need to turn over to test this rule : “If there is a D on one side of any card, there is a 3 on the other.”

The four-card problem First side Second side Card 1 D 3 Card 2 3 D Card 3 B 6 Card 4 7 D

We Overestimate the Accuracy of Our Beliefs Overconfidence on exams Overconfidence in the estimation of uncertain quantities Overconfident social judgments The bias to verify rather than falsify our beliefs