The Consumption Sector

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Presentation transcript:

The Consumption Sector Chapter 5 The Consumption Sector 5-1 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Chapter Objectives The average propensity to consume The average propensity to save The marginal propensity to consume The marginal propensity to save The consumption function The saving function The determinants of consumption The permanent income hypothesis 5-2 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Consumption Consumption is the nation’s expenditures on all final goods and services produced during the year at market prices Consumption was almost $2 trillion dollars in 2002 $2,000,000,000,000 $2,000 billion $2.0 trillion 5-3 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Four Parts of GDP Consumption ------------ C (this chapter) Investment ---------------- I (Chapter 6) Government -------------- G (Chapter 7) Net exports --------------- Xn (Chapter 8) 5-4 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Consumption Americans spend over 95% of their income after taxes The total of everyone’s expenditures is called consumption Consumption is designated by the letter C C is the largest sector of GDP Now C is just over two-thirds of GDP 5-5 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Consumption The consumption functions states As income rises, consumption (C) rises, but not as quickly Therefore, consumption varies with disposable income (DI) DI increases . . . C increases but by a smaller amount DI decreases . . . C decreases but by a smaller amount 5-6 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Consumption and Disposable Income 5-7 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Consumption and Disposable Income + 1000 + 800 + 1000 + 800 + 1000 + 800 + 1000 + 800 5-8 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Saving Saving is NOT spending The more we spend, the less we save A low savings rate leads to a low productivity growth rate Without savings ($) to invest in NEW plant and equipment, we cannot raise our productivity fast enough! Savings includes personal saving, business saving, and a government surplus (if they have one) 5-9 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Saving as a Percentage of Disposable Income Source: Economic Report of the President, 2001, Business Cycle Indicators, March 2001 5-10 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Average Propensity to Consume (APC) (The Percent of DI Spent) Consumption APC = ----------------------------------- Disposable Income 5-11 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Table 2 Disposable Income Consumption Saving $40,000 $30,000 5-12 $40,000 $30,000 5-12 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Table 2 APC = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = .75 Disposable Income Consumption Saving $40,000 $30,000 $10,000 C 30000 3 APC = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = .75 DI 40000 4 5-13 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Table 2 APC = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = .75 Disposable Income Consumption Saving $40,000 $30,000 $10,000 C 30000 3 APC = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = .75 DI 40000 4 S 10000 1 APS = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = .25 DI 40000 4 5-14 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Table 2 + 1.0 APC = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = .75 Disposable Income Consumption Saving $40,000 $30,000 $10,000 C 30000 3 APC = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = .75 DI 40000 4 + S 10000 1 APS = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = .25 DI 40000 4 1.0 5-15 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Table 3 Disposable Income Saving $20,000 $1,500 5-16 $20,000 $1,500 5-16 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Table 3 Disposable Income Saving Consumption Disposable Income Saving $20,000 $1,500 $18,500 Disposable Income Saving $20,000 $1,500 5-17 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Table 3 APC = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = .925 Disposable Income Saving Consumption $20,000 $1,500 $18,500 Disposable Income Saving $20,000 $1,500 C 18500 37 APC = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = .925 DI 20000 40 5-18 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Table 3 APC = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = .925 Disposable Income Saving Consumption $20,000 $1,500 $18,500 Disposable Income Saving $20,000 $1,500 C 18500 37 APC = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = .925 DI 20000 40 S 1500 3 APS = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = .075 DI 20000 40 5-19 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Table 3 + 1.0 APC = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = .925 Disposable Income Saving Consumption $20,000 $1,500 $18,500 Disposable Income Saving $20,000 $1,500 C 18500 37 APC = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = .925 DI 20000 40 + S 1500 3 APS = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = .075 DI 20000 40 1.0 5-20 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disposable Income Consumption Saving APCs Greater Than One Disposable Income Consumption Saving $10,000 $12,000 5-21 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disposable Income Consumption Saving APCs Greater Than One Disposable Income Consumption Saving $10,000 $12,000 - 2000 Where is this going to come from? 5-22 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disposable Income Consumption Saving APCs Greater Than One Disposable Income Consumption Saving $10,000 $12,000 - 2000 C $12,000 12 APC = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = 1.2 DI $10,000 10 5-23 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disposable Income Consumption Saving APCs Greater Than One Disposable Income Consumption Saving $10,000 $12,000 - 2000 C $12,000 12 APC = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = 1.2 DI $10,000 10 S -$2,000 -2 APS = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = -0.2 DI $10,000 10 5-24 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disposable Income Consumption Saving APCs Greater Than One Disposable Income Consumption Saving $10,000 $12,000 - 2000 C $12,000 12 APC = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = 1.2 DI $10,000 10 + S -$2,000 -2 APS = ------------ = ------------ = ------ = -0.2 DI $10,000 10 1.0 5-25 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) CHANGE in Consumption MPC = CHANGE in Income 5-26 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) Table 4 Year DI C S $30000 $23000 $7000 1999 $40000 $31000 $9000 5-27 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) Table 4 Year DI C S $30000 $23000 $7000 1999 $40000 $31000 $9000 Change 10000 8000 2000 5-28 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Table 4 Year DI C S $30000 $23000 $7000 1999 $40000 $31000 $9000 Change 10000 8000 2000 Change in C 8000 8 MPC =---------------- = ---------- = ------- = .8 Change in DI 10000 10 5-29 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Table 4 + 1.0 Year DI C S $30000 $23000 $7000 1999 $40000 $31000 $9000 $30000 $23000 $7000 1999 $40000 $31000 $9000 Change 10000 8000 2000 Change in C 8000 8 MPC =---------------- = ---------- = ------- = .8 Change in DI 10000 10 + Change in S 2000 2 MPS = -------------- = ---------- = -------- = .2 Change in DI 10000 10 1.0 5-30 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Graphing the Consumption Function If Consumption rose at the same rate as Disposable Income . . . A graph of this function would be a 45 % line 5-31 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Graphing the Consumption Function DI C S 3000 1750 Consumption is the vertical distance between the bottom (horizontal) axis and the “C” line. 5-32 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Graphing the Consumption Function DI C S 3000 1750 1250 Saving is the vertical distance between the “C” line and the 45 degree line 5-33 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Graphing the Consumption Function DI C S 3000 1750 1250 2000 1440 Consumption is the vertical distance between the bottom (horizontal) axis and the “C” line. 5-34 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Graphing the Consumption Function DI C S 3000 1750 1250 2000 1440 560 Saving is the vertical distance between the “C” line and the 45 degree line 5-35 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Graphing the Consumption Function DI C S 3000 1750 1250 2000 1440 560 1000 1000 Consumption is the vertical distance between the bottom (horizontal) axis and the “C” line. 5-36 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Graphing the Consumption Function DI C S 3000 1750 1250 2000 1440 560 1000 1000 0 Saving is “0” at 1000 DI because there is NO distance between the C line and the 45 degree line. 5-37 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Graphing the Consumption Function DI C S 3000 1750 1250 2000 1440 560 1000 1000 0 0 625 Consumption is the vertical distance between the bottom (horizontal) axis and the “C” line. 5-38 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Graphing the Consumption Function DI C S 3000 1750 1250 2000 1440 560 1000 1000 0 0 625 When DI is “0” the level of Consumption is called Autonomous Consumption (AC) 5-39 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Graphing the Consumption Function DI C S 3000 1750 1250 2000 1440 560 1000 1000 0 0 625 -625 Saving is the vertical distance between the “C” line and the 45 degree line. Saving is negative to the left of where the C line crosses the 45 degree line 5-40 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Autonomous Consumption versus Induced Consumption Autonomous consumption (AC) is the level of consumption when disposable income is “0” It is called autonomous because it is independent of change in disposable income Induced consumption (IC) is that part of consumption that varies with the level of disposable income As disposable income rises, induced income rises As disposable income fall, induced income falls IC = C - AC 5-41 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Graphing the Consumption Function DI C S 3000 1750 1250 2000 1440 560 1000 1000 0 0 625 -625 IC = C - AC IC = 625 - 625 IC = 0 DI = 0 What is IC? 5-42 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Graphing the Consumption Function DI C S 3000 1750 1250 2000 1440 560 1000 1000 0 0 625 -625 IC = C - AC IC = 1000 - 625 IC = 375 DI = 1000 What is IC? 5-43 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Graphing the Consumption Function DI C S 3000 1750 1250 2000 1440 560 1000 1000 0 0 625 -625 IC = C - AC IC = 1440 - 625 IC = 815 DI = 2000 What is IC? 5-44 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Graphing the Consumption Function DI C S 3000 1750 1250 2000 1440 560 1000 1000 0 0 625 -625 IC = C - AC IC = 1750 - 625 IC = 1125 DI = 3000 What is IC? 5-45 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Consumer Spending ($ billions) The major change in consumer spending has been a massive shift from nondurables to services 5-46 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

5-47 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Determinants of the Level of Consumption Disposable Income The most important determinant of consumption Credit Availability Stock of Liquid Assets in the hands of consumers Stock of Durable Goods Keeping up with the Jones's Consumer Expectations 5-48 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Permanent Income Hypothesis (Milton Friedman) People gear their consumption to their expected lifetime average earnings more than to their current income Apparently there are quite a few deviations from the behavior predicted by the permanent income hypothesis 5-49 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Determinants of Saving There is no single reason why people save Some spend virtually all of their disposable income Some spend more than they earn Americans now save less than 5 percent of disposable income Americans used to save 7 - 10 percent of disposable income 5-50 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

5-51 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Why Do We Spend So Much and Save So Little? Americans have been on a spending binge the last 20 years Mottos Buy now, pay later Shop till you drop We want it all, and we want it all now! 5-52 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Why Do We Spend So Much and Save So Little? The Federal Government has underwritten America’s spending binge Until 1987 interest paid on consumer loans was fully deductible from income taxes Mortgage interest and property taxes remain fully deductible Credit cards, installment credit, and consumer loans have expanded tremendously 1990 – 2000 household debt doubled to $7 trillion 5-53 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Why Do We Spend So Much and Save So Little? Two factors have become increasingly important Social Security causes many to NOT feel a pressing need to save for their old age Home ownership is seen as a form of saving Especially during a period of rising real estate prices 5-54 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Total Saving Every economy depends on saving for capital formation Individual saving + business saving + government saving = Total Saving Declines in household saving has been offset somewhat since 1993 by a sharp rise in government saving and business saving 5-55 Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.