Welcome and overview of the Skills Summit David Wells Chief Executive Freight Transport Association

The Driver Crisis a year on David Wells -Chief Executive

Update on the driver shortage FTA CEO – David Wells Welcome Update on the driver shortage Progress since last years’ event

Where we were a year ago 60,000 drivers short Recruiting 20,000 drivers a year Half of all driving tests were not passed The age profile worsening the problem

LGV drivers and employment growth Source: ONS Labour Force Survey Employment status by occupation, tables EMP04 and EMP16 Q2 2001-Q2 2015 In Q2 2015 according to the ONS Labour Force Survey, there were 299,217 people employed as LGV drivers, compared with 323,530 professional drivers 10 years earlier (a reduction of 7.5 per cent). At the same time trends in general employment indicated that there were a total of over 30.95 million jobs in August 2015 compared to 28.93 million 10 years earlier, which is an increase of 7 per cent.

LGV vs Drivers

There is no 'unemployed' pool of drivers Source: Labour Market Statistics January 2015 The number of LGV drivers claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance was 720 in December 2015, down 44.6 per cent from 1,300 a year ago. This is the second lowest figure recorded during the last 10 years and is 95.3 per cent lower than the peak of 15,255 in March 2009 during the economic downturn.

Ageing driver population Average age of an LGV driver is 48 years rising from 45.3 years in 2001 Source: Quarterly Labour Force Surveys, 2001-2015 (Q2 for each year)

The age profile stands out … Data on age from the Labour Force Survey (2015) revealed that over 64 per cent of LGV drivers are 45 years or older.5 This is vastly different to the economy-wide demographics, where the population aged 45 years or older in employment is around 46 per cent. Only 1 per cent of employed drivers are under 25, whereas 10 per cent of the total employed population is under 25. Source: Quarterly Labour Force Survey, April - June, 2015

Apprenticeship uptake … Increase of 23 per cent in people starting apprenticeship programmes learning to drive goods vehicles in 2014/15 compared to 2013/14. Source: Skills Funding Agency and the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, October 2015 Latest figures published in October 2015 by the Skills Funding Agency and the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills indicated that 4,930 people started apprenticeship programmes learning to drive goods vehicles in 2014/15. This is an increase of 23 per cent compared to 2013/14 ending a period of falling numbers. However, the number of participants starting such apprenticeships is 35 per cent lower than 2011/12. Note: the figure for 2014/15 was restated from 4,920 to 4,930 in the latest update January 2016

An increase in DQC initial qualification Pro rata 35,790 Initial DQC projected to increase 19 per cent by March 2016 compared to the previous year The figures for drivers acquiring DCPC through the initial qualification (which represents new entrants to the industry who did not hold a Cat C licence prior to 10 September 2009) Assuming new qualifications do not follow any significant seasonal variation, the number of DCPC initial qualifications for the period from April 2015 to March 2016 is projected to be around 35,790 which would be around 19 per cent up on the previous annualised period. Source: DVSA December 2015

Driving tests up but still only half are passed… Pro rata: 66,485 Source: DfT 2015 Practical large goods vehicles (LGV) test pass rates (DRT05) In the first nine months of 2015, there were a total of 49,864 tests conducted which is a 33 per cent increase on the 37,401 tests carried out during the same period in 2014. Extrapolating this increase to the end of 2015 yields a projected number of tests of 68,535 for the whole year.

FTA survey shows problems recruiting drivers Source: FTA Quarterly Transport Activity Survey (QTAS) January 2016 According to FTA’s Quarterly Transport Activity Survey (QTAS) January 2016, FTA members reported less difficulty in recruiting drivers in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to the third. In Q2 2009 however, just over 20 per cent of respondents had problems recruiting LGV drivers, this has now increased to around 75 per cent at the end of last year

We are about 45,000 drivers short Summary 45,000 drivers short An improvement in driver employment and apprenticeships Half of all driving tests taken are not passed The age profile still worsening the problem We are about 45,000 drivers short And there has been an improvement in driver employment and uptake of apprenticeships But half of all driving tests taken are still not being passed The age profile still says the problem will get worse

Progress since last year … 1. Loans for licence acquisition developed with DfT, BIS & Treasury 2. New money for licence acquisition in Wales 3. DVLA speeding up driver medical decisions 4. DVSA reducing waiting time for driving tests 5. Sponsorship of Think Logistics to engage with sixth formers 6. Partnership with DWP to help jobseekers 7. Work with the CTP to promote logistics jobs to service leavers 8. Launching new vocational qualifications for transport managers 9. Continued support and sponsorship of Everywoman project 10. Initiated a review of driver facilities by Highways England and by Transport Focus

The Driver Crisis a year on David Wells -Chief Executive

Update on the driver shortage Progress since last years’ event FTA CEO – David Wells Welcome Update on the driver shortage Progress since last years’ event

We were about 60,000 drivers short Where we were a year ago We were about 60,000 drivers short We were recruiting about 20,000 drivers a year Half of all driving tests taken were not being passed The age profile suggested the problem would get worse

LGV drivers and employment growth Source: ONS Labour Force Survey Employment status by occupation, tables EMP04 and EMP16 Q2 2001-Q2 2015 In Q2 2015 according to the ONS Labour Force Survey, there were 299,217 people employed as LGV drivers, compared with 323,530 professional drivers 10 years earlier (a reduction of 7.5 per cent). At the same time trends in general employment indicated that there were a total of over 30.95 million jobs in August 2015 compared to 28.93 million 10 years earlier, which is an increase of 7 per cent.

Based on the numbers of licensed vehicles and drivers LGV vs Drivers Based on the numbers of licensed vehicles and drivers 343,700 HGVs registered on O Licences 299,200 qualified drivers 44,500 drivers short The driver shortage has reduced to 45,000

There is no 'unemployed' pool of drivers Source: Labour Market Statistics January 2015 The number of LGV drivers claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance was 720 in December 2015, down 44.6 per cent from 1,300 a year ago. This is the second lowest figure recorded during the last 10 years and is 95.3 per cent lower than the peak of 15,255 in March 2009 during the economic downturn.

Ageing driver population Average age of an LGV driver is 48 years rising from 45.3 years in 2001 Source: Quarterly Labour Force Surveys, 2001-2015 (Q2 for each year)

The age profile stands out … Data on age from the Labour Force Survey (2015) revealed that over 64 per cent of LGV drivers are 45 years or older.5 This is vastly different to the economy-wide demographics, where the population aged 45 years or older in employment is around 46 per cent. Only 1 per cent of employed drivers are under 25, whereas 10 per cent of the total employed population is under 25. Source: Quarterly Labour Force Survey, April - June, 2015

Apprenticeship uptake … Increase of 23 per cent in people starting apprenticeship programmes learning to drive goods vehicles in 2014/15 compared to 2013/14. Source: Skills Funding Agency and the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, October 2015 Latest figures published in October 2015 by the Skills Funding Agency and the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills indicated that 4,930 people started apprenticeship programmes learning to drive goods vehicles in 2014/15. This is an increase of 23 per cent compared to 2013/14 ending a period of falling numbers. However, the number of participants starting such apprenticeships is 35 per cent lower than 2011/12. Note: the figure for 2014/15 was restated from 4,920 to 4,930 in the latest update January 2016

An increase in DQC initial qualification Pro rata 35,790 Initial DQC projected to increase 19 per cent by March 2016 compared to the previous year The figures for drivers acquiring DCPC through the initial qualification (which represents new entrants to the industry who did not hold a Cat C licence prior to 10 September 2009) Assuming new qualifications do not follow any significant seasonal variation, the number of DCPC initial qualifications for the period from April 2015 to March 2016 is projected to be around 35,790 which would be around 19 per cent up on the previous annualised period. Source: DVSA December 2015

Driving tests up but still only half are passed… Pro rata: 66,485 Source: DfT 2015 Practical large goods vehicles (LGV) test pass rates (DRT05) In the first nine months of 2015, there were a total of 49,864 tests conducted which is a 33 per cent increase on the 37,401 tests carried out during the same period in 2014. Extrapolating this increase to the end of 2015 yields a projected number of tests of 68,535 for the whole year.

FTA survey shows problems recruiting drivers Source: FTA Quarterly Transport Activity Survey (QTAS) January 2016 According to FTA’s Quarterly Transport Activity Survey (QTAS) January 2016, FTA members reported less difficulty in recruiting drivers in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to the third. In Q2 2009 however, just over 20 per cent of respondents had problems recruiting LGV drivers, this has now increased to around 75 per cent at the end of last year

We are about 45,000 drivers short Summary We are about 45,000 drivers short And there has been an improvement in driver employment and uptake of apprenticeships But half of all driving tests taken are still not being passed The age profile still says the problem will get worse

Progress since last year … Loans for licence acquisition developed with DfT, BIS & Treasury New money for licence acquisition in Wales DVLA speeding up driver medical decisions DVSA reducing waiting time for driving tests Sponsorship of Think Logistics to engage with sixth formers Partnership with DWP to help jobseekers Work with the CTP to promote logistics jobs to service leavers Launching new vocational qualifications for transport managers Continued support and sponsorship of Everywoman project Initiated a review of driver facilities by Highways England and by Transport Focus