Identifying contributing factors to threats © Pierre Ibisch 2014 Phase II Systemic risk and vulnerability analysis Step 7

Credits and conditions of use © Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, 2014 The Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management strongly recommends that this presentation is given by experts familiar with the adaptive management process in general (especially as designed as the Conservation Measures Partnership’s Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation) as well as the MARISCO Method itself. You are free to share this presentation and adapt it for your use under the following conditions: You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the authors (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). You may not use this work for commercial purposes. If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you must remove the Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management logo, and you may distribute the resulting work only under the same or similar conditions to this one.   This material was created under the leadership and responsibility of Prof. Dr. Pierre Ibisch and Dr. Peter Hobson, co-directors of the Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, which was jointly established by Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development and Writtle College. Compare: Ibisch, P.L. & P.R. Hobson (eds.) (2014): The MARISCO method: Adaptive MAnagement of vulnerability and RISk at COnservation sites. A guidebook for risk-robust, adaptive, and ecosystem-based conservation of biodiversity. Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, Eberswalde (ISBN 978-3-00-043244-6). 195 pp. - The Powerpoint Presentation was conceived by Christina Lehmann and Pierre Ibisch. Authors of graphs and photographs are indicated on the corresponding slides. Supported by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ). 7. Identify contributing factors to threats

7. Identify contributing factors to threats

Learning objectives Participants are able to facilitate the process of identifying contributing factors to threats and building up cause-effect chains/webs between threats and contributing factors causing these threats directly or as root causes resulting, which results in a conceptual model of the situation on site. Participants have a clear understanding of the rationale of this crucial step on the one hand to promote a common understanding of the conservation situation among various stakeholders by visualising problems, needs, opportunities and conflicts and on the other hand to present a structured and logical framework upon which to build strategies in the next stage of exercise. 7. Identify contributing factors to threats

Outline What does identifying contributing factors to threats mean? Why identifying contributing factors to threats? How do we identify contributing factors to threats? Practical Tips ? 7. Identify contributing factors to threats

What does identifying contributing factors to threats mean? This final analysis of elements presents a structured and logical framework upon which to build strategies in the next stage of the exercise Reflection on human activities and identifying their direct and indirect impact on the environment Pictures: Christina Lehmann 2014 © Christina Lehmann 2014 7. Identify contributing factors to threats

Contributing Factors Human activity or Natural environmental events Directly or indirectly result in a threat They often add up syner- gistically → many smaller contributing factors accu- mulate and worsen 7. Identify contributing factors to threats

Examles for Contributing Factors Pictures: Christina Lehmann 2012 & 2014 © Christina Lehmann 2012-2014 7. Identify contributing factors to threats

Why identifying contributing factors to threats? Important to understand the variety of contributing factors as root causes for threats in order to change or eliminate them Recognition of own participants’ role in this complex system Basis to find compromises between stakeholders’ needs and conservation Also recognition of unchangeable driving factors in order to be able to adapt Crucial preparatory step towards the formulation of effective management strategies ME Element + - 7. Identify contributing factors to threats

How do we identify contributing factors to threats? Gathering of several factors/ actions that contribute to threats → put them onto rectangular orange MARISCO factor cards © CEEM 2014 7. Identify contributing factors to threats

How do we identify contributing factors to threats? © CEEM 2014 7. Identify contributing factors to threats

How do we identify contributing factors to threats? One threat can have several contributing factors; one contributing factor can influence several other elements Connections between contributing factors and threats continuously reveal the network which represents the complexity of the system of the biodiversity object Focus on contributing factors that have a negative impact on bio-diversity object Cause-effect chains throughout the network show the complexity of the system and are sometimes non-linear and can show occasions of synergistic effects, escalations and positive & negative feedback loops > depicts un-predictability of the system © Pierre Ibisch 2013 7. Identify contributing factors to threats

Positive Feedback Loop If higher input increases output or if fewer input decreases output (rather destructive nature) Example: Temperature growth – arctic ice melting relationship When the greenhouse effect intensifies and the average air temperature rises, the arctic ice melts – result: less “white surface” on the earth (lower albedo). This causes an increase in energy uptake through the earth which causes further melting of arctic ice. + + Ice-Graphik:http://www.greenpeace.de/themen/arktis/bilder-von-der-arktis-expedition-teil-2 © Nick Cobbing 2009 7. Identify contributing factors to threats

Negative Feedback Loop If higher input decreases output or if fewer input increases output Example: Predator – prey relationship Lions consume antelopes. The more lions consume antelopes (due to sufficient supply) the stronger the number of antelopes decreases. Once the amount of antelopes is too low for lions to survive, the latter decrease, while the former increase again. + Pictures: Christina Lehmann 2014 © Christina Lehmann 2014 - © Christina Lehmann 2014 7. Identify contributing factors to threats

Synergistic effect CLIMATE CHANGE An effect arising between two or more entities/factors that produces an effect greater than the sum of their individual effects Example: Climate Change Climate change is much faster and more intensively happening, when it is driven by many several factors, instead of just one (e.g. greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, urbanisation, etc.) CLIMATE CHANGE © Christina Lehmann 2012-2014 7. Identify contributing factors to threats

How do we identify contributing factors to threats? Guiding Questions for the identification of contributing factors to threats: What are the reasons for the appearance of a threat or a factor? Which relevant actors and stakeholders are involved in causing a threat? What are their reasons for doing so? Are there any factors from those listed that have a positive influence on another contributing factor or threat? 7. Identify contributing factors to threats

Practical Tips For large and rather heterogeneous workshop groups, building focus groups that concentrate on the causal analysis of selected threats or sectors has proven effective As this is the basis for the current (often dysfunctional) condition of ecosystems and the whole complexity and extent of the problems becomes obvious, workshop participants tend to become helpless and discouraged → Explain to them that this is not “the end” → This situation analysis is basic for solution and strategy development 7. Identify contributing factors to threats