Agriculture and Growth in Uganda Nathan Fiala Assistant Professor University of Connecticut 14 September 2017

Growth 1982 to 2015 This and other graphs from EPRC report: Uganda’s Agricultural Sector at Crossroads: Is it a myth or a reality?

Challenges to agriculture sector growth A large contributor to GDP, and growth But farmers are not using modern techniques This makes their production lower And they are very susceptible to weather and other shocks

Input quality remains a major issue An average bag of fertilizer in Uganda contains 30% of the nitrogen it should (Bold et al. 2017) Only 50% of hybrid maize seeds are authentic The return to using fertilizer and improved seeds is negative Farmers and experts do not know what is being planted (Ilukor et al. 2017) Massive underestimation of the prevalence of improved seeds By 55pp for improved and 66 pp for hybrid But average purity levels are low (63% on average) Where is the breakdown happening? Ongoing work focusing on identifying priority areas for policy/regulatory along the supply chains

Kenyan input manufacturing Much more trusted internationally, especially in Uganda Kenya has addressed many of the key issues with production Incentives to make better seeds and fertilizers are in place Monitoring is extensive and well facilitated Farmers are more aware of different quality systems And farmers can generally see the returns, thus increasing demand But importing from Kenya is difficult Import certification harder than current national certification programs

Some solutions to input issues in Uganda E-verification, Kakasa, Blue tags for certified seeds, green tags for quality declared seeds, AgVerify Some are subsidized, but still expensive for farmers Significant lack of knowledge of the systems among farmers Demand and willingness-to-pay for certified inputs is low District ordinances Districts are passing laws about selling fake seeds But its hard to determine what is fake Community monitoring Recent evidence from NUSAF2 suggests that communities can be empowered to monitor quality and act on this But needs to be well targeted with clear power to act

Water access and climate change Timing of planting is becoming difficult Some new, relatively untested ideas are emerging Trans African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO) Local measurements with satellite data Create localized short-term forecasts Swaziland reservoirs and water tanks Water tanks to households Rehabilitation of water reservoirs for community crop irrigation

Small-scale irrigation solution in Rwanda Ready to use 1ha, 5ha, and 10ha sprinklers, drip and rain-gun kits Portable diesel/petrol pump-units and pipes Rain-water harvesting through tanks (plastic and concrete), treadle pump and dam sheet technologies Cost about $1,500 per hectare, but are subsidized up to 50% Individual farmers, but also groups apply for the subsidy

Farmer training and beliefs in new products Extension workers can improve practices, but are not present Targeting networks and multiple people per village in Malawi (Beaman et al. 2015) But heterogeneity in returns makes learning difficult (Suri 2011)

Consumer and export demand Enabling smaller farmers/farmer groups to meet requirements to supply large buyer contracts Issues with quality, quantity and consistency of supply In the coffee value chain, farmers are unable to afford costly standards certification Without extension services, large buyers and traders are integrating backwards to provide these services themselves Exports require good neighbors, or transport systems to good neighbors Business networks are hard to develop, and producers need help making these

Some promising options to improve markets Farmer linkages Increase bulk purchasing (IFAD and Swaziland Ministry of Agriculture) Improve farmer contracting (Casaburi and Macchiavello 2016) E-markets Improve information to farmers through SMS messaging in Uganda (UC San Diego and Makerere) Provide market information in Niger (Aker 2010) Improve insurance contracting (Kenya, Casaburi and Willis 2017)

Summary of policy recommendations Increase use of modern techniques Increase input quality (seeds and fertilizer) by enforcing laws and empowering citizens Improve water access and rain forecasting through small and large infrastructure investment and forecasting Increase facilitation for extension workers to spread better methods Support better market linkages and contracts Improve information farmers have on markets Increase trust farmers have in market and government solutions More learning about what is not working, and what can be done better. Experiment so solutions are impactful.