Seasonal Arctic heat budget in CMIP5 models Yanni Ding, James A. Carton, Gennady Chepurin University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, 20742 Author contact information: Yanni Ding: yding@atmos.umd.edu CMIP5 models we consider Introduction The oceanic component of coupled climate models at high latitudes has received less attention than either the overlying meteorology or the sea ice cover despite the strong connections between these three and the strong connections to the Atlantic overturning circulation. As part of a broader examination of atmosphere/ocean/ice interactions at high latitude (part of my dissertation) we are examining the behavior of the heat and salt budgets in 145 year long ‘nature runs’ in a set of 15 CMIP5 coupled models, many of which have multiple ensemble members. Here I focus on the seasonal response of heat storage to changes in incoming solar radiation as well as seasonal influences from lower latitudes. Model Name Model Center Ocean resolution Grid CanESM2 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis 1.4⁰x0.9⁰x40lev regular CCSM4 National Center for Atmospheric Research 1.1⁰x(0.27⁰-0.54⁰)x60lev displaced CNRM-CM5 CNRM, France 1⁰x(1/3⁰-1⁰)x42lev tripolar CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 CSIRO, Austrilia 1.875⁰x0.9375⁰x31lev GFDL-CM3 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory 1⁰x(1/3⁰-1⁰)x50lev GFDL-ESM2M GFDL-ESM2G GISS-E2-H NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies 1⁰x1.25⁰x32lev GISS-E2-R 1⁰x~1⁰x32lev HadCM3 Met Office Hadley Centre, U.K. 1.25⁰x1.25⁰x20lev HadGEM2-ES 1⁰x(1/3⁰-1⁰)x40lev IPSL-CM5A-MR Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, France 2⁰x2⁰x39lev MPI-ESM-LR Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany 1.5⁰x1.5⁰x40lev MRI-CGCM3 Meteorological Research Institute, Japan 1⁰x0.5⁰x50lev NorESM1-M Norwegian Climate Centre 1⁰x1⁰x70lev Seasonal cycle of atmosphere radiative flux Surface downwelling shortwave radiation in CMIP5 simulations is generally weaker than observed. The seasonal cycle of net flux and surface albedo varies from model to model. Seasonal cycle is stable over 145 years. Example of surface shortwave fluxes over Arctic Ocean Observation Seasonal cycle of ocean/ice heat Heat storage anomalies [1950-2005] Simulated ocean heat content (0/1500m) is biased, with biases that vary from model to model. Here we remove the bias and focus on seasonal changes. Averaged over the Arctic, seasonal ocean/ice heat storage balances net seasonal surface heat flux. downwelling Seasonal surface downwelling and net solar averaged 63N-90N. Year days : from Curry et al. 1996 Models with larger seasonal changes of net fluxes show more seasonal sea ice melting and a smaller cloud fraction in summer. Huge variations are found in the annual cycle of cloud fraction among different models. HCO : ocean heat content (10-8 K s-1) HCL: heat content associated with melting ice (10-8 K s-1) for the models with the largest (GISS-E2-H) and smallest (CSIRO) seasonal changes). Observations are in black. Seasonality of heat content change over 120 yrs The total heat content (HC of ocean mix layer + HC due to sea ice volume changes) increases significantly in most models in the recent 145 years, but in different ways. The HC of Atlantic Water (in the West Spitsbergen current) seems to be correlated with the total HC changes in Arctic Ocean. Comparison of the same two models we whose heat storage we examine to the right. Red and black curves show the seasonal cycles at the beginning and the end of the run. Most models show large changes in seasonal sea ice cover over 145 years. Seasonal sea ice extent The HC of ocean mix layer increases more significantly in warm seasons, while the ice heat content shows a opposite trend in some models and no significant seasonal differences are found in the rest models. A warmer ocean mix layer does not necessarily co-occur with more sea melting, showing the different sensitivity of sea ice to ocean temperature . Heat content change (1986-2005mean - 1861-1880mean) Time mean sea ice extents north of 70oN are consistent among different models, while the summer melting is not. Sea ice concentration (MAM) Surface albedo (MAM) Surface reflectivity over ice differs more from model to model than that over land. Sea ice albedo is generally smaller than observed. In some models, the surface albedo is only ~70% at the North Pole. Area-averaged albedo decreases with time primarily due to changes in coverage. °C Unit: % Unit: % Summary References 1. Boé, J., Hall, A., & Qu, X. (2009). Current GCMs’ Unrealistic Negative Feedback in the Arctic. J. Climate e, 22, 4682–4695. 2. Curry, J., Rossow, W., Randall, D., & Schramm, J. (1996). overview of arctic cloud and radiation characteristics. J. Climate, 9, 1731–1764. Net surface fluxes and reflectivity over the Arctic Ocean vary from model to model. The seasonal cycle of the sea ice extent and the cloud fraction both contribute to these variations. In simulations the seasonal cycle of atmospheric surface radiative flux controls the seasonal cycle of ocean heat content. Ocean advection of heat becomes a dominant term on decadal timescales (not shown here) The sensitivity of sea ice volume to the increasing ocean temperature varies among different models. 3. Steele, M., R. Morley, and W. Ermold (2001), PHC: A global ocean hydrography with a high-quality Arctic Ocean, J. Climate, 14, 2079–2087.