Centre for Vocational Education Research: what we do and how we influence educational policy Evidence-Informed Decision-Making: from classroom to boardroom LSRN Discussion Workshop, Thursday 24 November Stefan Speckesser and Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela Centre for Vocational Education Research Institute for Employment Studies Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics University of Sussex

Outline Centre for Vocational Education Research (CVER) – who we are and what we do First CVER discussion paper: Post-16 compulsory education choices We have many other projects in progress. For example.. Post- compulsory education choices of low-achievers Facilitating research

CVER: Who we are DfE funded research centre from March 2015 for 3-5 years. Steering Group meets every 4 months (led by Prof. Alison Wolf) LSE-led consortium of four institutions. Institutions/node leaders are: LSE: Sandra McNally University of Sheffield: Steven McIntosh Institute of Employment Studies: Stefan Speckesser London Economics: Gavan Conlon Mostly economists doing quantitative research with large-scale administrative data sets and surveys

CVER main strands: what we do Facilitating Strand – Data Descriptive overview of VE sector and policy issues Impact of VE on individuals, firms and growth Quality of VE provision Individual participation decisions and the costs and benefits of VE More information: http://cver.lse.ac.uk/research/default.asp

CVER dissemination activities and engagement We publicise outputs through: - CVER Discussion Paper Series: http://cver.lse.ac.uk/publications/default.asp - Blogposts. http://cver-blog.blogspot.co.uk/ - CentrePiece Magazine (LSE magazine) - The media (e.g. TES) - A regular newsletter (subscribe on our website or send an email request to cver@lse.ac.uk) 2. We present our findings at conferences and seminars (for policy makers/practitioners/academics) and participate in relevant calls for evidence (e.g. House of Lords Select Committee on Social Mobility; Sir Adrian Smith’s post-16 Maths review) and directly work with policy makers (e.g. BIS Academic Panel). 3. We host a seminar series and annual conference. http://cver.lse.ac.uk/events/default.asp Follow us on Twitter! CVER@LSE

CVER DP 001: Post-compulsory Education in England: Choices and Implications (Hupkau, McNally, Ruiz-Valenzuela, Ventura) Analyse KS4 leaving cohort in 2009/10 and follow their educational choices until the age of 20, using linked administrative datasets (NPD, ILR, HESA) Classify individuals by main activity at age 17: a) Level 3: A-Levels, Applied Generals, Tech Levels, Key Skills/Functional Skills/NVQ, Other Level 3 b) Level 2: Tech Certificate Vocational qualifications at Level 2 Key/Functional Skills GCSEs c) Below Level 2: All those with highest level of learning at Level 1 and below d) Apprenticeships e) Unknown (but appearing in the student census at 17) f) Not observed in education

CVER DP 001: Post-compulsory Education in England: Choices and Implications Main findings: Conditional on prior attainment at age 11, demographics, and school attended by the end of Key Stage 4: A-levels and vocational equivalents at Level 3: Strong predictors of staying on in education until 18 & achieving a Level 3 qualification before age 20 Still, A-levels are the dominant pathway to university Most people classified as pursuing ‘Level 2’ qualifications at age 17 do not progress any higher up the education qualification ladder: Only about 44% achieve a Level 3 qualification by the age of 20. Getting stuck: around 10,000 students are observed working towards low-levels of qualification for four consecutive years Apprentices have a completely different profile than those students who undertake A- levels and go to university: 9 out of 10 in university achieved 5 GCSEs (A*-C) compared to 57% for advanced apprenticeships

CVER DP 001: Dissemination Times Education Supplement: “Thousands of 16-year-olds are stuck in an educational ''revolving door'', returning year after year to study low-level qualifications, a major new study has found.” https://www.tes.com/news/tes-magazine/tes-magazine/revolving-door-warning The Conversation: “Nowhere is reform more necessary than in the options for 16-year-olds, after they finish their GCSE exams (…). There are thousands of qualifications available for 16- to 18-year-olds and it is hard to classify available options into sensible groupings, especially for lower levels of learning – what is called Level 2 and below” https://theconversation.com/if-a-levels-arent-for-you-choices-at-age-16-could-now-get-a-whole-lot-simpler-62294 CentrePiece magazine: “Well under half of young people in England complete A-levels, yet the baffling array of qualifications available for their peers is rarely discussed.” http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cp481.pdf Results already in circulation and cited in policy reports like: Making the apprenticeship system work for 16-18 year olds (Institute for Public Policy Research)

Other ongoing research and emerging findings An example of our ongoing work: vocational education “Below Level 2” 10% of schools leavers in England Very little is known about their vocational education and labour market outcomes Descriptive analysis of 2010/11 KS4 leavers using linked administrative data at individual level from: National Pupil Data (NPD) Individualised Learner Records (ILR) Employment data from Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) records

“Below Level 2” analysis Progression from Low-Level education Example of Highest level of education achieved three years after KS4 by initial destination after GCSEs

“Below Level 2” analysis Understanding different trajectories of BL2 learners: Data visualisation methods and cluster analysis

“Below Level 2” analysis Findings: We find five main BL2 trajectories Learners showing clear progression in vocational education (31% of all BL2 learners) Those with transitions to a sustained status outside education and employment (19%) Young people with extended participation in BL2 and delayed progression (29%) BL2 learners making successful transitions to employment (9%) or apprenticeships (13%) Main findings/conclusions of sequence analysis: Those leaving BL2 to a NEET destination mostly drop out during the first year, likely to result from early disengagement. One conclusion from this is that more effective mechanisms to monitor and to reduce disengagement need to be put in place Colleges and youth support should try everything to avoid that young people drop out of their first year of post-16 education as this often results in persistent NEET episodes. Next step: Understanding better the characteristics associated with early dropout to help target interventions better

“Below Level 2” analysis Engaging with education policy: CVER is part of an internationally-leading research community on the economics of education We deliver independent research to highest academic standards to make high-level recommendations on improving technical education, similar to the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training in Germany We communicate our BL2 research (Discussion papers, meetings with Department for Education, stakeholders, other researchers, OECD, Cedefop, many more) We participate in the debate on education reform, including parliamentary consultations, to improve provision for BL2 learners in the set-up of the new Institute for Apprenticeships and Technical Education (e.g. Recommendation 28 of the Sainsbury report on the design and content of the transition year)

Facilitating research Helping others to better understand available data We run a data wiki to make the interested community more familiar with data We are in the process of setting up data access via the ADRN

Facilitating research (Data wiki)

Further information See our website: http://cver.lse.ac.uk Contact us to be put on our mailing list: cver@lse.ac.uk Follow us on twitter: CVER@LSE

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