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2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://clasp.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2016 January 14, 2016 Framing the System: Glimpse into the climate change problem using observations and projections; How is science-based knowledge generated? Relation of climate change to global issues: energy, economics, population, consumption; Organizing our response to global warming: Mitigation – Adaptation

Class Information and News Ctools site: CLIMATE_480_001_W16 Record of course Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action

Required Reading and Response Assignment on CTools Site Paris_Agreement_2015_Final.pdf

Resources and Recommended Reading Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html And in particular two subsections Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm Simple climate models http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm Note specific assignment on Ctools site Rood .mp4 Introductory Lecture https://umich.box.com/s/4vzq7txa60ax7gr19k4d

A (very) Little History and the Conclusion Outline: Class 2, Winter 2016 A (very) Little History and the Conclusion Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem What is (and is not) “science?” The scientific method applied to climate Relation to Energy, Population, Consumption Response Framework

Some history (see Weart, AIP) The first calculations of the ability of water vapor and carbon dioxide to warm the Earth’s surface are often attributed to Fourier (1768-1830). (I will call this the greenhouse effect.) Significant improvements to the quantification of the warming due to greenhouse gases is attributed to Tyndall (1820-1893) Arrhenius in the late 1800s made estimates of the impact of doubled carbon dioxide Water vapor introduced. Water the most important greenhouse gas. Approximately 2/3 rds of warming. Water is largely saturated. Carbon dioxide is second largest warming. There is a carbon dioxide window, which we are closing.

Starting point: Scientific foundation (1) The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on fundamental principles of the conservation of energy, momentum, and mass. The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on an enormous and diverse number of observations.

Starting point: A fundamental conclusion Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we observe that with virtual certainty The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface has increased due to the addition of gases into the atmosphere that hold heat close to the surface. The increase in greenhouse gases is due to human activities, especially, burning fossil fuels. We are a geological force

Starting point: A fundamental conclusion Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we predict with virtual certainty The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface will continue to rise because due to the continuing addition of gases into the atmosphere that hold heat close to the surface. The increase in greenhouse gases is due to human activities, especially, burning fossil fuels. Historically stable masses of ice on land will melt. Sea level will rise. The weather will change.

Climate science is observationally based Scientific Approach Climate science is observationally based Climate change is computational science Relies on models

Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem

Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas The Economist on 400 ppm Data and more information

The yearly cycle of CO2

IPCC 2001 Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C) This is a remarkable opportunity. We have knowledge, with a high degree of confidence, what is likely to happen in the future.

Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 Polar amplification: Why are North (Arctic) and South (Antarctic) different? Physical geography. Ocean can transport heat to the pole. Atmosphere can transport heat to pole. Antarctic continent blocks ocean, and topography, order 2 km, blocks atmosphere. Note “band” around Antarctica. 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001

Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008 http://data. giss. nasa 1951-1980 base period This is observation from a single year. Anomaly calculated from 1951 – 1980 Note this is noisier, especially in the tropics. Note high warming in Arctic. This is seen year after year. If you were to average over several years, which is the definition of climate, then Arctic warming would be the most prominent part of the figure. See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

IPCC 2013: Observed Temperature

IPCC 2007: The last ~100 years Figure SPM.3. Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature, (b) global average sea level from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All changes are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961–1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal average values while circles show yearly values. The shaded areas are the uncertainty intervals estimated from a comprehensive analysis of known uncertainties (a and b) and from the time series (c). {FAQ 3.1, Figure 1, Figure 4.2, Figure 5.13}

Quick Summary: IPCC(2013)

IPCC (2007) projections for the next 100 years Note: From one IPCC assessment to the next, there is no fundamental change in sign and range. Figure SPM.5. Solid lines are multi-model global averages of surface warming (relative to 1980–1999) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1, shown as continuations of the 20th century simulations. Shading denotes the ±1 standard deviation range of individual model annual averages. The orange line is for the experiment where concentrations were held constant at year 2000 values. The grey bars at right indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likely range assessed for the six SRES marker scenarios. The assessment of the best estimate and likely ranges in the grey bars includes the AOGCMs in the left part of the figure, as well as results from a hierarchy of independent models and observational constraints. {Figures 10.4 and 10.29}

That’s a glimpse into climate change We’ve seen this carbon dioxide curve, with carbon dioxide increasing. I’ve told you that carbon dioxide holds heat close to the surface. I showed curves and graphs of global averaged surface temperature, past, present, and future. Showed sea level and snow melt.

What parameters/events do we care about? Temperature Water Precipitation Evaporation Humidity Air Composition Air quality Aerosols Carbon dioxide Winds Clouds / Sunlight Droughts Floods Extreme Weather The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate

What is (and is not) “science?” The Scientific Method

Scientific investigation of climate change What is scientific investigation? Scientific method How do we get started?

What is science, the scientific method? Elements of the scientific method Observations of some phenomenon Identification of patterns, relationships and the generation of suppositions, followed by hypotheses In principle, hypotheses are testable: Experiments: cause and effect Prediction instead of experiments? Development of constructs, theory, which follow from successful hypothesis. Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like? Development of tests, experiments that challenge the hypotheses and predictions. Validate or refute theory and elements from which the theory is constructed. This is a classic definition of the scientific method. Science is use of this method to investigate the subjects of our interest. At a very real level, science is a belief system, where the belief is that this is the way to investigate and generate knowledge. The concept of controlled experimentation is central to the scientific method. However, often it is not possible to develop controlled experiments to investigate a particular field of study. This is mostly true in the study of weather and climate. In this case, it is essential to develop observational campaigns to isolate processes and allow the extraction of cause and effect and to support and refute hypotheses. There are several ingredients to this type of investigate. Models are an important ingredient. With thought models can be used in controlled experimentation to evaluate (verify, validate) our understanding of processes and to make and validate predictions. Models also help us to manage the complexity present in the climate system.

What is science, the scientific method? Science is a process of investigation The results of scientific investigation are the generation of Knowledge within a prescribed levels of constraints Uncertainty: How sure are we about that knowledge? Science does not generate a systematic exposition of facts Facts are, perhaps knowledge, whose uncertainty is so low, that we feel certain. Theories develop out of tested hypotheses. Theory is NOT conjecture Theory is subject to change There is constant challenge and testing Science requires validation Requires that hypotheses and theories are testable Requires transparency so that independent investigators can repeat tests and develop new tests. This is a classic definition of the scientific method. Science is use of this method to investigate the subjects of our interest. At a very real level, science is a belief system, where the belief is that this is the way to investigate and generate knowledge. The concept of controlled experimentation is central to the scientific method. However, often it is not possible to develop controlled experiments to investigate a particular field of study. This is mostly true in the study of weather and climate. In this case, it is essential to develop observational campaigns to isolate processes and allow the extraction of cause and effect and to support and refute hypotheses. There are several ingredients to this type of investigate. Models are an important ingredient. With thought models can be used in controlled experimentation to evaluate (verify, validate) our understanding of processes and to make and validate predictions. Models also help us to manage the complexity present in the climate system.

What is science, the scientific method? Science is a process of investigation Requires transparency so that independent investigators can repeat tests and develop new tests. Do you feel that scientific investigation of the climate is “transparent?” Do you feel that independent investigators affirm basic conclusions? This is a classic definition of the scientific method. Science is use of this method to investigate the subjects of our interest. At a very real level, science is a belief system, where the belief is that this is the way to investigate and generate knowledge. The concept of controlled experimentation is central to the scientific method. However, often it is not possible to develop controlled experiments to investigate a particular field of study. This is mostly true in the study of weather and climate. In this case, it is essential to develop observational campaigns to isolate processes and allow the extraction of cause and effect and to support and refute hypotheses. There are several ingredients to this type of investigate. Models are an important ingredient. With thought models can be used in controlled experimentation to evaluate (verify, validate) our understanding of processes and to make and validate predictions. Models also help us to manage the complexity present in the climate system.

Science, Scientific Method Scientists DO impart their personalities and beliefs onto their results But the fact that it is independently testable, ultimately, challenges this potential prejudice.

Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONS THEORY PREDICTION

Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONS PROCESSES MODELING

Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONS THEORY EXPERIMENT

Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONS THEORY EXPERIMENT Problem Solving Unification Integration (perhaps not unique) Knowledge Generation Reduction Disciplinary

What is science, the scientific method? We always have these attributes in the scientific method Observations of some phenomenon / phenomena Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like? How do we affect “control?” What is “control?” We are seeking cause and effect. Validation, can I predict the behavior? Can I describe this well enough for someone else to repeat it? This is a classic definition of the scientific method. Science is use of this method to investigate the subjects of our interest. At a very real level, science is a belief system, where the belief is that this is the way to investigate and generate knowledge. The concept of controlled experimentation is central to the scientific method. However, often it is not possible to develop controlled experiments to investigate a particular field of study. This is mostly true in the study of weather and climate. In this case, it is essential to develop observational campaigns to isolate processes and allow the extraction of cause and effect and to support and refute hypotheses. There are several ingredients to this type of investigate. Models are an important ingredient. With thought models can be used in controlled experimentation to evaluate (verify, validate) our understanding of processes and to make and validate predictions. Models also help us to manage the complexity present in the climate system.

Relation to Energy, Population, Consumption

Climate Change Relationships We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change. CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY The impact of renewables is significant. Without them, the emissions would be even higher. There are other greenhouse gases. There are other sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas. The vast majority of or energy comes from burning fossil fuels.

Climate Change Relationships Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE POPULATION SOCIETAL SUCCESS CONSUMPTION

Societal Success and Energy Low High High This is what we know. Consumption Low High Low

Energy and Economic Success What countries are missing from this figure? What has changed since 2005? The Bottomless Well: Huber and Mills (2005)

Response Framework

Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO2 It’s not an either / or argument. Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO2 we put in the atmosphere.

Summary Class 2, Winter 2016 Greenhouse effect, importance of water and carbon dioxide to Earth’s climate known more than 200 years Climate Change / Global Warming as a societal issue is primarily motivated by release of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. Warming and consequences have been observed and more is on the way. Framing the System: Glimpse into the climate change problem using observations and projections; How is science-based knowledge generated? Relation of climate change to global issues: energy, economics, population, consumption; Organizing our response to global warming: Mitigation – Adaptation

Summary Class 2, Winter 2016 Scientific investigation is observation based, and relies on evaluation of testable hypotheses. Generates knowledge and associated uncertainty Framing the System: Glimpse into the climate change problem using observations and projections; How is science-based knowledge generated? Relation of climate change to global issues: energy, economics, population, consumption; Organizing our response to global warming: Mitigation – Adaptation

Summary Class 2, Winter 2016 Climate change / global warming follows from use of fossil fuels as energy and the consumption of energy to improve standard of living Historically, relatively small portion of population Future, larger portion of population seeking improved standard of living The framework for responding to global warming is Mitigation: don’t do the things that cause warming Adaptation: respond to warming Framing the System: Glimpse into the climate change problem using observations and projections; How is science-based knowledge generated? Relation of climate change to global issues: energy, economics, population, consumption; Organizing our response to global warming: Mitigation – Adaptation

Thanks All of this will be discussed in more detail during the course.