The Demographic Transition What is it? How does it work? What does it tell us about the future?

What is it? It is a change in population dynamics that has been observed to occur in countries that: Improved the per capita living standards Offered everyone security through a variety of Social Programs (like health care, education)

How did we Get Here? Why the declining population in the rich countries, and the booming population in the poorer countries? Well, there is a theory to explain that. It is called the Demographic Transition, and here it is.

Does this have Policy Implications? First of all, nobody anticipated this dynamic going into negative numbers It suggests that the only proven way to reduce the growth of the world’s population is to increase the wealth and security of the poor. “Closing the Gap”

Other Policy Measures China restricts the number of children per family to one. Beyond that there are heavy tax penalties. This is why India is set to surpass China in population. Russia, Germany and France are offering incentives for people who have two or more children.

Think of how the US family has changed By the 2000s, there was an increasing percentage of couples who never have children, and a shift to minority groups who represent the bulk of the children born (a majority since July 06) Even in the 1930s, it was common for three generations to live together and for the family to have many children. By 1990s, a dramatic rise in the single-parent family. By the 1950s, the smaller, nuclear family had started to emerge, living separately from parents. Think of how the US family has changed Plus grandparents living at home. By 1970s, the elderly started to be institutionalized, and were living much longer.