U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook September 2017 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council

Macroeconomic Environment

U.S. Real GDP Growth

U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price

U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast

Civilian Unemployment Rate

U.S. Federal Budget Surplus (CBO Projection)

CBO Ag Baseline Spending

Real GDP Growth in Selected Countries

Euro (Currency per U.S. Dollar)

Real Exchange Rate Index (Other Important Trade Partners) Federal Reserve

Ag Prices Received Index

U.S. Net Farm Income

U.S. Cotton Supply

December Cotton Futures

December Corn Futures

November Soybean Futures

2017 U.S. Cotton Area Thousand Acres % Change Southeast 2,171 2,534 2016 Actual* 2017 Estimated* % Change Southeast 2,171 2,534 16.7 Mid-South 1,490 1,945 30.5 Southwest 5,987 7,573 26.5 West 230 320 39.1 ALL UPLAND 9,878 12,372 25.2 ALL ELS 195 247 26.7 ALL COTTON 10,073 12,619 25.3 *USDA-NASS

2017 U.S. Cotton Area Thousand Hectares % Change Southeast 879 1,025 2016 Actual* 2017 Estimated* % Change Southeast 879 1,025 16.7 Mid-South 603 787 30.5 Southwest 2,423 3,065 26.5 West 93 130 39.1 ALL UPLAND 3,998 5,007 25.2 ALL ELS 79 100 26.7 ALL COTTON 4,076 5,107 25.3 *USDA-NASS

U.S. Cotton Production

U.S. Cotton Supply

U.S. Cotton Demand

Net Domestic Fiber Consumption

Cotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption

U.S. Cotton Retail Consumption

Components of Retail Fiber Consumption

U.S. Cotton Textile Imports

U.S. Cotton Content in Textile Imports

U.S. Cotton Product Trade with Mexico

U.S. Cotton Product Trade with CBI

U.S. Cotton Product Imports from China

U.S. Cotton Mill Use (Calendar Year)

U.S. Cotton Mill Use (Marketing Year)

U.S. Cotton Production & Use

The World Market & U.S. Cotton Exports

China Cotton Supply & Use

World Cotton Production

World Fiber Mill Use *PCI

Fiber Prices

World Cotton Mill Use

Foreign Cotton Production & Use

U.S. Cotton Exports

World Cotton Ending Stocks

Cotton Stocks/Use (World less China)

U.S. Supply and Demand Million Bales Beginning Stocks 3.80 2.75 Production 17.17 21.76 Imports 0.01 0.01 Total Supply 20.98 24.52 Mill Use 3.25 3.35 Exports 14.92 14.90 Total Offtake 18.17 18.25 Ending Stocks 2.75 6.00 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 15.1% 32.9% 2016/17e 2017/18p

U.S. Supply and Demand Million Metric Tons Beginning Stocks 0.83 0.60 Production 3.74 4.74 Imports 0.00 0.00 Total Supply 4.57 5.34 Mill Use 0.71 0.73 Exports 3.25 3.25 Total Offtake 3.96 3.98 Ending Stocks 0.60 1.31 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 15.1% 32.9% 2016/17e 2017/18p

World Supply and Demand Million Bales Beginning Stocks 96.72 89.57 Production 106.74 120.75 Imports 37.21 37.82 Mill Use 113.68 117.75 Exports 37.54 37.78 Ending Stocks 89.57 92.54 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 78.8% 78.6% 2016/17e 2017/18p

World Supply and Demand Million Metric Tons Beginning Stocks 21.07 19.51 Production 23.25 26.31 Imports 8.11 8.24 Mill Use 24.77 25.65 Exports 8.18 8.23 Ending Stocks 19.51 20.16 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 78.8% 78.6% 2016/17e 2017/18p

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