Canadian International Development Platform Presentation to Africa Study Group Aniket Bhushan May 29, 2017 aniket@cidpnsi.ca @CIDPNSI

Context Platform and Data Report: Flows and trends Forthcoming analysis and engagement

Low hanging fruit picked: hardest mile, implications for risk, shared prosperity in low growth new normal The number of Low Income Countries more than halved from 63 in 2000 to 31 in 2015 (according to the World Bank’s income classification)   Extreme poverty has declined considerably: as a share of world population from approx. 35% in 1990 – to 28% in 1999 15% in 2010 11% in 2013 (at $1.90/day PPP)   However, between 3% and 7% of the world’s population will live in extreme poverty in 2030   In the best-case scenario, this equates to over 400mn people living in extreme poverty in 2030  Over 80% of the extreme poor will be in sub-Saharan Africa 60% will be in fragile countries (mostly in sub-Saharan Africa)

Development strategy, not just update to aid policy

Canada’s foreign assistance is relatively well targeted: poverty and need focused, and Africa Partners Multilaterals: 56% Governmental: 15.8% Canadian CS: 15.6% Largest Canadian Micronutrient CFGB (foodgrains) Care Save Plan World Vision AKFC Big picture Above 2015 2016 similar: Africa = 39%; $2.1bn, largest share GAC project basis higher = 48% (2015) 2005/06 to 2014/15 = $15.7bn worth projects in Africa Primarily health (21.3%); humanitarian (16.3%); educ + government CS = +60%

International trade

Trade pattern: as expected – small share, negative BoT, highly concentrated partners & products SSA (all income) Total (two-way) around: $6bn (i.e. in 2016, about ½ that of SA; 1/10th LAC) CAGR 2002-2016: approx. 9% , faster than overall growth (only 2.7%); however 2011 – 2016 CAGR -9.6% Only makes up 0.5% approx. of total trade Over 50% ($3.2bn 2016) two: Nigeria, South Africa Only Ivory Coast, Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Ethiopia, DRC > $100mn (2016) Negative BoT: -$1.1bn (2016) Over 52% of imports mineral fuels, oil et al. (not incl. mining ores, slag etc, other primary e.g. cocoa – up to 65%) Canadian exports: primarily cereals (food grains etc. 26%)

Trade vs. Aid Poorer (LDC, low and lower middle only) SSA countries 2016 Total aid flows: approx. $2.1billion < Total imports: approx. $2.5billion

Investment: FDI fractional, data blind-spots, methods assumptions Total stock of Cad FDI in SSA (2015): approx. $5 billion CAGR 2000 – 2015: 20% ; compared to overall 7.2% Share of total: 0.5% Highly concentrated (partners, sectors) Data highly uncertain: suppression for confidentiality; methods E.g. 51/177 countries data suppressed or NA (2016); several in SSA Alt methods: E.g. mining sector, asset valuation perspective (CMAA- NRCan) $31billion (2011) vs. total FDI stock $4.3billion (StatsCan) ; mine output perspective (CIDP) $12bn (2012) vs. total FDI stock $1.5bn

Trade and Investment agreements: laying the groundwork 89 total agreements, all kinds, at all stages – 54 in force Most are Free Trade or Foreign Investment Protection Agreements: 27 FTAs, 52 FIPAs – total 48 in force 12 FTAs in force : zero in Africa (only one negotiating, Morocco) 36 FIPAs in force : 8 in Africa (MENA incl) + 2 signed (Burkina, Nigeria) + 3 negotiating (Ghana, Kenya, Tunisia) Egypt (1997); Tanzania (2013); Benin (2014); Cote d’Ivoire (2015); Mali (2016); Senegal (2016); Cameroon (2016); Guinea (2017)

Migration and remittances: difference in pattern from other developing regions

Migration and remittances: difference in pattern from other developing regions Overall refugee’s make up approx. 4.3% of new migrants (2000 – 2014, both temp and perm) SSA: refugee’s approx. 24% of all new migrants 5 major: Somalia, DRC, Ethiopia, Eretria, Sudan (make up 65% SSA refugees, 15% of SSA migrants; all types) Growth in international students: e.g. Nigeria (2000 to 2014 approx. 12x growth, implies: $130.16 mn in tuition in 2014 > $117.6 mn in foreign aid in 2014) Remittance outflow: global 3-4x ODA; Canada all (109 dev) 4x ODA; but SSA $830mn i.e. less than ½ ODA (mostly Nigeria, Kenya)

Engagement and analysis Responding to the changing global development context: How can Canada deliver? Data Report 2017 Future of development finance and CdnDFI