Latest insights from validation activities

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Presentation transcript:

Latest insights from validation activities Henk Eskes (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) and partners of CAMS-84

CAMS Information Flows

Validation & verification products Validation reports for the global real-time analysis-forecast service (3-monthly updates) Global system upgrade verification reports Validation reports for the global reanalysis Reports to evaluate the regional models above the surface, and consistency with the global analyses Extended verification information on series of web pages (automated plots on daily basis)

Extensions and New Aspects as compared to MACC Greenhouse gas evaluation included in the validation activity Arctic theme; Mediterranean theme Evaluation of the regional services above the surface (talk Matthieu Plu) Scoring approaches revisit Traceability Operationalisation

Validation Traceability Observations Description of instruments, stations, providers, QA/QC, uncertainty estimates, site characterisation, representativity, references, acknowledgements Comparisons Unit conversions, averaging approaches, comparison details (kernels, regridding), error bars and uncertainty propagation, outlier filtering

Aerosol AOD evaluation MODIS Deep Blue improves analysis (since Sept 2015) Ångström exponent: too small particles Control low, loss of mass during forecast AERONET v2 validated data Michael Schulz, MET-NO

Tropospheric NO2 evaluation Europe: good match with satellite over last year Asia: Large underestimation in previous years, better match in 2015 / 2016 Satellite measurements clearly show improvements in pollution over Asia (China) Anne Blechschmidt, IUP-Bremen

Ceilometer aerosol evaluation over Germany New generation of ceilometers powerful tool for validation, real-time Dust from Sahara well captured Sea salt overestimated Harald Flentje, DWD

Case study: NH ozone depletion 29 February 2016 Independent BASCOE analyses of ClOx (left) Ozone depleted values at 40 hPa (middle) Ozone column (right) overestimate in Jan-Feb, high latitude good agreement lower latitudes, Feb-Mar Simon Chabrillat, BIRA-IASB

CAMS validation of the global services: Acknowledgements S. Basart (BSC), A. Benedictow (MetNo), A. Blechschmidt (IUP-UB), S. Chabrillat (BIRA-IASB), Y. Christophe (BIRA-IASB), H. Clark (CNRS-LA), E. Cuevas (AEMET), H. Flentje (DWD), K. M. Hansen (AU), U. Im (AU), J. Griesfeller (MetNo), V. Huijnen (KNMI), J. Kapsomenakis (AA), E. Katragkou (AUTH), B. Langerock (BIRA-IASB), M. Ramonet (CEA-LSCE), M. Razinger (ECMWF), A. Richter (IUP-UB), M. Schulz (MetNo), N. Sudarchikova (MPG), W. Thomas (DWD), V. Thouret (CNRS-LA), M. Vrekoussis (AA), A. Wagner (DWD), T. Warneke (UBC), C. Zerefos (AA) Many thanks to all the many groups providing (real-time) measurements