U.S. and Texas Politics and Constitution The Presidential Election Process March 24, 2015 j. Bryan Cole POLS 1336

Announcements Chapter 9 Learn Smart module is due this Sunday, March 29, 2015 at 11:59pm Extra credit opportunity will soon be available on Blackboard Midterm II Next Tuesday, March 31, 2015 Same format as Midterm I Sign up for a CASA reservation Study guide now available on Blackboard

Presidential Election Process: A Timely Subject! US Senator Ted Cruz formally announces his candidacy for the Republican nomination for President Could Ted Cruz pull a Barack Obama? From CNN.com. March 23, 2015.

Selecting the U.S. President Remember: The Constitution only talks about the Electoral College The U.S. presidency hasn’t always been the leader of the free world The rest of the process has evolved gradually since then, particularly during the 20th century Do you think that this process is adequate for selecting the leader of the free world?

History of the Nomination Process Primaries came about as part of the Progressive Era around the early 20th century Initially, these were limited to state and local contests, but spread to presidential contests These contests are actually to select delegates to attend the parties’ national conventions

Obligations of Delegates Democratic Superdelegates The Delegates Obligations of Delegates Democratic Superdelegates Pledged to support one candidate But they can change their minds if their chosen candidate drops out At-large delegates (no one votes for them) Became very controversial in 2008

Caucuses and Primaries People go to vote for delegates to attend the conventions Secret ballots A short, simple process People go to meetings to adopt party platforms and select candidates No secrecy Long process

1968 Democratic National Convention - Chicago Eugene McCarthy had won a large number of primaries, but the delegates nominated Hubert Humphrey McGovern-Fraser Commission institutes reforms which (unintentionally) allowed the Iowa Caucuses to gain influence

Iowa Caucus Overview Iowa has layered caucuses, so the delegates aren’t formally selected until much later: Initial contests in precincts County caucuses Congressional district caucuses Statewide convention McGovern-Fraser Commission opens up participation to rank-and-file members and requires greater transparency in delegate selection (which means that delegates can’t get selected more than a year before the convention)

The 1976 Presidential Election and the Accident of the Iowa Caucuses A then-unknown Southern governor comes in 1st place in the Iowa caucuses (28%), though 37% were uncommitted The modern-day Iowa caucus is born!

How Caucuses Work (and Generate Controversy) Example using stick figures Example from a Des Moines Precinct During the 2008 Caucus Turnout Often about 6 percent; was a record 12 percent in 2008 Who turns out? Is Iowa representative of the nation as a whole?

Recent Iowa Caucuses Democrats: Obama 2008 2012 Democrats: Obama Republicans: Mike Huckabee (Fmr. Arkansas Governor) Democrats: Obama (uncontested) Republicans: Rick Santorum (Fmr. Pennsylvania Senator) barely defeated Romney

Primaries Off to New Hampshire! More like traditional elections, but there are sometimes restrictions concerning who is allowed to participate Types of primaries Open primaries (Texas) – allow for strategic voting (ex. some McCain supporters voted for Obama in 2008 because they thought McCain could more easily defeat Obama than Clinton Semi-open primaries – you can request a ballot for either party, but it will a matter of public record Closed primaries – you have to be registered officially with a given political party in order to vote in its primary

Recent New Hampshire Primaries 2008 2012 Democrats: Hillary Clinton Republicans: John McCain Democrats: Obama (uncontested) Republicans: Romney

Advantages of Caucuses Advantages of Primaries Caucuses v. Primaries Advantages of Caucuses Advantages of Primaries

Advantages of Caucuses Advantages of Primaries Caucuses v. Primaries Advantages of Caucuses Advantages of Primaries

Which approach do you support for selecting presidential nominees? Primaries Caucuses Not sure

Frontloading Frontloading: moving caucuses and primaries up in order for your state to have more say in who the nominees will be Traditionally, Iowa and New Hampshire are first 2008 problems with frontloading

General Remarks about the Primaries/Caucuses Parties have lots of control over how these are conducted and how the delegates are allocated: Winner-take-all Proportional representation GOP usually done with this stage much faster (but not during 2012!)

The Conventions Very great suspense Select the parties’ nominees Historically In Recent Years Very great suspense Select the parties’ nominees Announcements of VP candidates and acceptance speeches by both candidates Setting party platforms Now, these events are just formalities Gives each party a week in the spotlight Still feature acceptance speeches and setting of party platforms

George W. Bush and Debates “I had seen enough politics to know you can’t really win a debate. You can only lose by saying something stupid or looking tired or nervous…I made my case confidently and avoided any major gaffes,” (p. 54) Bush commenting on his 1994 gubernatorial debate with incumbent Ann Richards

Debates in 2012 For each election, the parties and candidates must agree on the terms of the debates Debates are often a draw, though Obama is widely said to have “lost” the first 2012 debate Highlights from the 2nd 2012 Presidential Debate

Agree or disagree: I found the 2012 presidential debates to be informative. Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Didn’t watch/didn’t watch enough to say Don’t know

Toward Election Day After the debates: Final push for ads and winning over the (by now) very small number of “undecideds” GOTV activities begin, especially in states with early voting Election Day on the 1st Tuesday after the 1st Monday in November

The Electoral College Meets Electoral College meets on the 1st Monday after the 2nd Wednesday in December 2012 Results: 332-206 for Obama

Small Group Readings and Discussions Do you think that the presidential nomination/election process should be reformed? Why/why not? How? Form groups of 4 and read over your assigned article/op-ed. Be prepared to state to the class: What is the author(s)’s point? Do you agree? Why/why not?

Articles and Op-eds Primaries, Caucuses and Conventions...Oh My! (PDF; read only the first 3 pages) Fix the Primaries: The American Plan Column: why we should kill the Iowa caucuses Iowa serves the presidential nomination process well (PDF) Five myths about the electoral college In Defense of the Electoral College

The Electoral College should be abolished and replaced with the popular vote. Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Didn’t watch/didn’t watch enough to say Don’t know