Childfree? Or happy family?

Why such a big difference in family size between the religious and the non-religious (in Switzerland) ? Dr Marion Burkimsher

Structure of presentation Switzerland compared to other European countries Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials Who are the religious ‘nones’? Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness Different expectations by religiosity Who succeeds in having a child they say they want? Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia Outstanding questions

Structure of presentation Switzerland compared to other western European countries Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials Who are the religious ‘nones’? Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness Different expectations by religiosity Who succeeds in having a child they say they want? Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia Outstanding questions

Number of children by religiosity, women aged 25-40   Attenders Affiliated, non-attenders Nones (Attenders-nones) United Kingdom 1.61 1.20 1.34 0.27 Sweden 1.60 1.17 1.23 0.37 Netherlands 1.58 1.42 1.09 0.49 France 1.93 1.37 1.35 0.58 Germany 1.38 1.04 0.75 0.62 Spain 1.31 0.83 0.65 0.66 Austria 1.74 1.16 0.98 0.76 Switzerland 2.08 1.27 0.97 1.11 Russia -0.11 European Social Survey 2006

Structure of presentation Switzerland compared to other western European countries Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials Who are the religious ‘nones’? Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness Different expectations by religiosity Who succeeds in having a child they say they want? Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia Outstanding questions

Introduction to Swiss context A third of adults aged ~30 born outside Switzerland: bordering countries former Yugoslavia Spain & Portugal Eastern European countries Total fertility rate (TFR): 1.38 in 2001 -> 1.54 in 2014 Mean (and median and mode) age at 1st birth > 30 years, ongoing rise which depresses the TFR measure Actual average family size ~ 1.7 projected for 1980 cohort of women 20% of women remain childless, > 30% if tertiary educated

Trends for 1952-1977 cohort aged 22-47 in 1999; 32-57 in 2009, n=2000-3000 Frequent prayer: prays outside church >= once/week Regular attender = participation in religious services >= monthly No religion = religious affiliation ‘none’ Swiss Household Panel 1999-2009

Religious affiliation and attendance, M&W aged 40-60 11% 25% Family & Generations Survey 2013

Religious affiliation and attendance, M&W aged 21-35 7% 16% Family & Generations Survey 2013

Religious affiliation and attendance and number of children M&W aged 40-60 11% 1.8 2.0 25% 1.9 1.5 Family & Generations Survey 2013

Structure of presentation Switzerland compared to other western European countries Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials Who are the religious ‘nones’? Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness Different expectations by religiosity Who succeeds in having a child they say they want? Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia Outstanding questions

Religious ‘nones’ Religiously active in order of importance Religiously active Parents divorced Parents stayed married French-speaking areas (esp. Geneva) Rural Only child 3+ siblings Single Married Born abroad Born in Switzerland Struggle to pay unexpected bill of $2000 Could pay unexpected bill of $2000 Tertiary educated Low education Male Female Higher income Middle or low income Binary logistic regression, likelihood of being a religious none Family & Generations Survey 2013

Structure of presentation Switzerland compared to other western European countries Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials Who are the religious ‘nones’? Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness Different expectations by religiosity Who succeeds in having a child they say they want? Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia Outstanding questions

Differentials in desire for children, partnering, childlessness Family & Generations Survey 2013 ‘Wants no kids’ from sample of childless M&W aged 21-35 Never married/partnered and childless from sample M&W aged 36-80

Differentials in desire for children, partnering, childlessness Family & Generations Survey 2013 ‘Wants no kids’ from sample of childless M&W aged 21-35 Never married/partnered and childless from sample M&W aged 36-80

Differentials in desire for children, partnering, childlessness Family & Generations Survey 2013 ‘Wants no kids’ from sample of childless M&W aged 21-35 Never married/partnered and childless from sample M&W aged 36-80

Differentials in desire for children, partnering, childlessness Family & Generations Survey 2013 ‘Wants no kids’ from sample of childless M&W aged 21-35 Never married/partnered and childless from sample M&W aged 36-80

Proportion childless of those aged 45-54 Women Born in Switzerland Secondary educated Catholic or Protestant 18% childless Swiss census 2000

Proportion childless of those aged 45-54 Women Born in Switzerland Secondary educated Catholic or Protestant 18% childless Women Born in Switzerland Tertiary educated No religion 44% childless Swiss census 2000

Proportion childless of those aged 45-54 Women Born in Switzerland Secondary educated Catholic or Protestant 18% childless Women Born in Switzerland Tertiary educated No religion 44% childless Women Born in Switzerland Tertiary educated No religion Married 29% childless Swiss census 2000

Proportion childless of those aged 45-54 Women Born in Switzerland Secondary educated Catholic or Protestant 18% childless Men Born in Switzerland Tertiary educated Catholic or Protestant 17% childless Women Born in Switzerland Tertiary educated No religion 44% childless Women Born in Switzerland Tertiary educated No religion Married 29% childless Swiss census 2000

Proportion childless of those aged 45-54 Women Born in Switzerland Secondary educated Catholic or Protestant 18% childless Men Born in Switzerland Tertiary educated Catholic or Protestant 17% childless Women Born in Switzerland Tertiary educated No religion 44% childless Men Born in Switzerland Tertiary educated No religion 32% childless Women Born in Switzerland Tertiary educated No religion Married 29% childless Swiss census 2000

Proportion childless of those aged 45-54 Women Born in Switzerland Secondary educated Catholic or Protestant 18% childless Men Born in Switzerland Tertiary educated Catholic or Protestant 17% childless Women Born in Switzerland Tertiary educated No religion 44% childless Men Born in Switzerland Tertiary educated No religion 32% childless Women Born in Switzerland Tertiary educated No religion Married 29% childless Men and women Muslim 5% childless Swiss census 2000

Structure of presentation Switzerland compared to other western European countries Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials Who are the religious ‘nones’? Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness Different expectations by religiosity Who succeeds in having a child they say they want? Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia Outstanding questions

Different expectations and worries of religious and nones Ability to do what you want day-to-day Professional life Financial situation Friends’ opinions of you Joy and satisfaction with life Closeness to your partner Closeness to your parents Sex life Imagine you have a(nother) child in the next 3 years (even if you can’t have or don’t want one). What effect would it have on different aspects of your life?... Much better Better Neither better nor worse Worse Much worse Family & Generations Survey 2013

Different expectations and worries of religious and nones Ability to do what you want day-to-day Professional life Financial situation Friends’ opinions of you Joy and satisfaction with life Closeness to your partner Closeness to your parents Sex life Imagine you have a(nother) child in the next 3 years (even if you can’t have or don’t want one). What effect would it have on different aspects of your life?... Much better Better Neither better nor worse Worse Much worse Family & Generations Survey 2013

Different expectations and worries of religious and nones Ability to do what you want day-to-day Professional life Financial situation Friends’ opinions of you Joy and satisfaction with life Closeness to your partner Closeness to your parents Sex life Imagine you have a(nother) child in the next 3 years (even if you can’t have or don’t want one). What effect would it have on different aspects of your life?... Much better Better Neither better nor worse Worse Much worse Family & Generations Survey 2013

Different expectations and worries of religious and nones Ability to do what you want day-to-day Professional life Financial situation Friends’ opinions of you Joy and satisfaction with life Closeness to your partner Closeness to your parents Sex life Imagine you have a(nother) child in the next 3 years (even if you can’t have or don’t want one). What effect would it have on different aspects of your life?... Much better Better Neither better nor worse Worse Much worse Family & Generations Survey 2013

Relative likelihood of expecting greater life satisfaction Binary logistic regression with control variables + * ** * Childless from sample of M&W aged 22-35 Those with 1 or 2 children from sample M&W aged 22-43 Family & Generations Survey 2013

Relative likelihood of expecting greater life satisfaction Binary logistic regression with control variables + * ** * Childless from sample of M&W aged 22-35 Those with 1 or 2 children from sample M&W aged 22-43 Family & Generations Survey 2013

Relative likelihood of expecting greater life satisfaction Binary logistic regression with control variables + * ** * Childless from sample of M&W aged 22-35 Those with 1 or 2 children from sample M&W aged 22-43 Family & Generations Survey 2013

Relative likelihood of expecting greater life satisfaction Binary logistic regression with control variables + * ** * Childless from sample of M&W aged 22-35 Those with 1 or 2 children from sample M&W aged 22-43 Family & Generations Survey 2013

Different expectations and worries of religious and nones Ability to do what you want day-to-day Professional life Financial situation Friends’ opinions of you Joy and satisfaction with life Closeness to your partner Closeness to your parents Sex life Imagine you have a(nother) child in the next 3 years (even if you can’t have or don’t want one). What effect would it have on different aspects of your life?... Much better Better Neither better nor worse Worse Much worse Family & Generations Survey 2013

If have a child then relative likelihood of anticipating… + + ** If have a child then relative likelihood of anticipating… + Much worse financial situation

Different expectations and worries of religious and nones Ability to do what you want day-to-day Professional life Financial situation Friends’ opinions of you Joy and satisfaction with life Closeness to your partner Closeness to your parents Sex life Imagine you have a(nother) child in the next 3 years (even if you can’t have or don’t want one). What effect would it have on different aspects of your life?... Much better Better Neither better nor worse Worse Much worse Family & Generations Survey 2013

If have a child then relative likelihood of anticipating… Worse or much worse sex life ** * +

If have a child then relative likelihood of anticipating… + + ** If have a child then relative likelihood of anticipating… Worse or much worse sex life Much worse financial situation ** * + The nones (men and women) are also pretty worried about their professional life…

Structure of presentation Switzerland compared to other western European countries Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials Who are the religious ‘nones’? Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness Different expectations by religiosity Who succeeds in having a child they say they want? Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia Outstanding questions

Even though they may not have positive expectations >85% of the ‘nones’ still say they would like to have children… Do they have them? Using panel data we find….

Who fails to have the children they say they wanted? % M&W aged 21+ who wanted at least 1 child in 2002 but were still childless in 2013-14 Religious attendance frequency in 2002 and 2012 Swiss Household Panel 2002, 2012, 2013, 2014

Who fails to have the children they say they wanted? % M&W aged 21+ who wanted at least 1 child in 2002 but were still childless in 2013-14 Religious attendance frequency in 2002 and 2012 Swiss Household Panel 2002, 2012, 2013, 2014

Structure of presentation Switzerland compared to other western European countries Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials Who are the religious ‘nones’? Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness Different expectations by religiosity Who succeeds in having a child they say they want? Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia Outstanding questions

Religious attendance frequency by age group in Georgia Generations & Gender Survey 2006

Religiosity by educational level – Georgia Men & women aged 25-40 Generations & Gender Survey 2006

Fertility of women aged 38-49 in Georgia by religiosity Number/children % childless Regular 1.6 19% Occasional 15% Never 1.9 11% Generations & Gender Survey 2006

Expectation of greater life satisfaction if have a child Childless men & women aged 21/18-35 Swiss Family & Generations Survey 2013/ Georgia Generations & Gender Survey 2006

Expectation of being much worse financially if have a child Childless men & women aged 21/18-35 Swiss Family & Generations Survey 2013/ Georgia Generations & Gender Survey 2006

Expectation of worse sex life if have a child Childless men & women aged 21/18-35 Swiss Family & Generations Survey 2013/ Georgia Generations & Gender Survey 2006

Structure of presentation Switzerland compared to other western European countries Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials Who are the religious ‘nones’? Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness Different expectations by religiosity Who succeeds in having a child they say they want? Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia Outstanding questions

Outstanding questions Why are the differentials between the religious and the ‘nones’ bigger in Switzerland than in other (similar) countries? Does the state family support better match the choices of the religious than the ‘nones’? Does having children make one more religious? Does failing to partner (and so have children) make one more likely to stop attending church? Partner (in)stability, residential mobility or social/support network: which explain the differentials between the religious and the nones? Do the life priorities of the nones impose barriers to having a family? Are certain personality attributes associated with religiosity and likelihood of having children?

Outstanding questions Why are the differentials between the religious and the ‘nones’ bigger in Switzerland than in other (similar) countries? Does the state family support better match the choices of the religious than the ‘nones’? Does having children make one more religious? Does failing to partner (and so have children) make one more likely to stop attending church? Partner (in)stability, residential mobility or social/support network: which explain the differentials between the religious and the nones? Do the life priorities of the nones impose barriers to having a family? Are certain personality attributes associated with religiosity and likelihood of having children?

Outstanding questions Why are the differentials between the religious and the ‘nones’ bigger in Switzerland than in other (similar) countries? Does the state family support better match the choices of the religious than the ‘nones’? Does having children make one more religious? Does failing to partner (and so have children) make one more likely to stop attending church? Partner (in)stability, residential mobility or social/support network: which explain the differentials between the religious and the nones? Do the life priorities of the nones impose barriers to having a family? Are certain personality attributes associated with religiosity and likelihood of having children?

Outstanding questions Why are the differentials between the religious and the ‘nones’ bigger in Switzerland than in other (similar) countries? Does the state family support better match the choices of the religious than the ‘nones’? Does having children make one more religious? Does failing to partner (and so have children) make one more likely to stop attending church? Partner (in)stability, residential mobility or social/support network: which explain the differentials between the religious and the nones? Do the life priorities of the nones impose barriers to having a family? Are certain personality attributes associated with religiosity and likelihood of having children?

Outstanding questions Why are the differentials between the religious and the ‘nones’ bigger in Switzerland than in other (similar) countries? Does the state family support better match the choices of the religious than the ‘nones’? Does having children make one more religious? Does failing to partner (and so have children) make one more likely to stop attending church? Partner (in)stability, residential mobility or social/support network: which explain the differentials between the religious and the nones? Do the life priorities of the nones impose barriers to having a family? Are certain personality attributes associated with religiosity and likelihood of having children?

So why such a big difference in family size between the religious and the non-religious (in Switzerland)…. ????? The way forward… We do have many good data sources: Family & Generations Survey / Generations & Gender Survey Swiss Household Panel European Social Survey European Values Survey World Values Survey Swiss census 2000 (included children born and religion) Or design some good qualitative research to answer “Why?” Just need to frame the questions and do some research….

Thank you! drmarionb@gmail.com

Childfree? Or happy family?